Israel launches major air strikes and raids into Syria as fears about Turkey's actions in the state.

 

An Israeli tank in the Golan Heights. BBC/EPA.

Israel has launched major air strikes and ground raids in Syria as fears increase about Turkey's actions in the state. BBC. The attacks targeted the T4 and Hama air bases along with targets in Damascus. The strikes were destroy any capabilities those bases had after hundreds of airstrikes have occurred against Syria since the former al-Qaeda affiliate, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), took over the country. There was also a land operation in the Deraa region that killed around nine gunmen conducted by the Israelis. Though the operations were targeting HTS, the real issue appears to be Turkey. Israel considers Turkey to be hostile and the country just signed a mutual defense pact with Syria's government and will deploy troops and weapons in the country. 

My Comment:

I'm starting to wonder if Israel is biting off more than it can chew. They are already bogged down in Gaza and that's hardly the only threat. They are also rumors, possibly baseless, that a new war with Iran may break out too, due to their nuclear weapons program. If that's the case Israel could face a war on four fronts, Gaza, Yemen, Iran and Syria. That's going to stretch their resources to the breaking limit. 

Even if the war is limited to just Gaza, the Houthis and Syria, it would be difficult for Israel to continue all three wars at once. They would come under pressure to end at least one of the wars. Trump bombing Syria would help them, but still, they just don't have the population and weapons to fight three wars at once. 

But I also totally understand why they are doing it too. HTS is a former al-Qaeda affiliate and are terrorists. If it wasn't for ISIS, al-Nusra would have been the bogyman we all feared in the last decade. They are more moderate than ISIS but that's not saying much of anything. Having a former terror organization in power in Syria is a direct threat to Israel's interests and perhaps even their existence. 

Turkey is the real threat though. Under Erdogan the country is transforming itself in a more radical direction and there is an argument that they are a bigger threat than Iran at this point when it comes to Israel. They are trying to usurp the position of leader of the Arab/Muslim world from Saudi Arabia and Iran and are being fairly successful. They were instrumental in allowing HTS to take over in the first place and have a strong presence in the country even when Assad was still there. 

I have written about this threat before and I do wonder if a war between Israel and Turkey is possible. Such a conflict would be deeply uncomfortable for the United States as both countries are allies. Indeed, a war between Israel and Turkey could be the final straw for the NATO alliance as I can't see the United States being allied with Turkey if they are fighting a war with Israel. 

And I do think that at the very least, there is already a proxy war going on already. Israel has taken quite a bit of territory in Golan Heights area and are calling for the demilitarization of much of southern Syria. And these attacks are going to cripple the more advanced capabilities of the Syrian government. The real question now is if HTS is going to do anything in response, along with Turkey...  

More B-2 bombers have been deployed to Diego Garcia, a sign that the war against the Houthis in Yemen is escalating.

 

Satellite photo of Diego Garcia showing six B-2- bombers. Times of Israel/AP.

At least six B-2 stealth bombers have been deployed to Diego Garcia, a sign that the war against the Houthis in Yemen is escalating. Times of Israel. The deployment is highly unusual and comes at a time when a 2nd Carrier Strike Group is heading to the region, headed by the USS Carl Vinson, joining the USS Harry Truman. Attacks against the Houthis have increased as a cease fire fell apart between Hamas and Israel. The Houthis have attacked shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden in response to the war in Gaza. The US Navy has been in heavy combat since then, with some describing the battles as the most intense the Navy has fought since World War II. Over 100 civilian ships have been attacked since the start of the conflict. The Trump administration has been more aggressive in targeting Houthi leadership in addition to missile launch sites.

My Comment:

There are some concerns that these B-2 bombes are not in Diego Garcia for the Yemen War but for a potential war between the United States and Iran. I concede this is possible but I generally think it's unlikely. Tensions with Iran are reasonably high but I don't really see a reason why a war would break out unless something happens, like a first strike against Diego Garcia, which is something I have seen suggested. Is Iran even capable of that? I am not sure, but regardless, I think an actual war with Iran is unlikely. 

So why are these B-2's there? Part of it might because our other heavy bombers are vulnerable to Yemen's fairly formidable anti-air defenses. Remember, the Houthis have shot down at least some drones since strikes have begun, mostly MQ-9 Reapers. It's unclear how many drones have been shot down, the Houthis claim 20, with the most recent being this week, but without confirmation from the United States those numbers are likely inaccurate. But they have had some successes. 

Our non-B-2 bombers, like the B-52 and B-1 are not really designed to go into that kind of combat environment. Should they try to directly engage it's possible that they could be shot down. They could still be used with standoff weapons and large amount of escorts (which may be why the 2nd Carrier Strike Group has been deployed) but I don't think it's worth it. Fighter bombers are better suited for that role and drones can supplement them. 

The real reason is probably due to the fact that Yemen has quite a few fortified bunkers and the B-2 Sprit is the only plane that can use the biggest and most powerful "bunker buster" bombs, the GBU-57a/B MOP.  These bombs can only really be used by the B-2 (with the B-21 not being deployed yet) and they are necessary to destroy some of the heavy bunkers. 

Though I don't think that a war with Iran is likely, it could be that this is some saber rattling as well. Deploying these bombers and using these bunker busters could be a message for them. It's the stick to any carrot that Trump could be offering up for a potential nuclear deal. I don't think President Trump really wants a war, and saber rattling and then cutting a deal has been a very common tactic for him. But the deployment could be about sending a message. 

Finally, it's fairly crazy to me how little coverage the war with the Houthis have gotten. Like the article said, the US Navy is in extremely heavy combat and only got a short break when the cease fire deal in Gaza fell apart. You would think the war would get more coverage but the US media, as always, is out to lunch when it comes to things that are actually important. 

Chaos in the House as a Republican rebellion shuts down votes...

 

Republican Anna Luna led the rebellion. Fox News/Getty.

Two critical House votes have been tabled after a rebellion led by a small group of Republicans. Fox News. The rebellion was led by Representative Anna Luna who wanted legislation to pass that would allow members of congress to vote remotely for 12 weeks after having a child. Luna led an extremely rare Discharge Petition against her own party and was joined by 8 other Republicans and every Democrat in the House. House leadership tried to block the vote but failed as Luna had enough votes. The rebellion led to Speaker Johnson to cancel the rest of the votes this week, including critical votes on the No Rogue Rulings Act and the Safeguarding Voter Eligibility Act. 

My Comment:

What an utter embarrassment and this is why Republicans never seem to get anything accomplished. The core legislation at play here has little to do with the disorder in the house, it's the fact that instead of voting on absolutely critical legislation, Luna pulled a stunt and Johnson angered part of his party in response. Now neither bill is going to be considered and I am furious at both sides. 

I generally disagree with the idea that members of Congress should be able to vote remotely under any circumstances. If they don't want to be there after having a child, they can resign. For your vote to count, you should be in Washington DC. And the whole thing is ridiculous as the House has a child care unit, for free, as a perk of the job. There is absolutely no excuse for new parents in the House to have this vote from home perk when it's not needed at all. 

And Luna's rebellion is not going to play well at all for folks at home. Instead of doing what their base wants, Luna and her allies worked with Democrats (!) to shut down legislation for a niche issue that does not affect American voters in any way whatsoever! Most folks don't get 12 weeks of home work after having a kid and they certainly don't have free child care like members of Congress do. I know a lot of folks are very upset that the issue was even supported by any Republicans at all. 

Of course, Johnson stepped in it too. Instead of allowing this stupid vote to pass and be voted on, he tried to force a rule that would have stopped it. Had he simply allowed the vote to go through, it likely would have passed, which would have been bad optics, but nothing compared to this. He made the wrong choice and now two absolutely critical bills aren't going to go anywhere for at least the next week. 

So instead of voting on a critical legislation, the House ripped itself apart over a niche issue that voters are not going to care about at all, and giving the Democrats a rare win for absolutely no reason. How can Republicans claim to be a serious party if things like this continue to happen? The party won a mandate and the voters kept their part, but the party is absolutely not doing theirs. 

I have never understood why the Republicans constantly shoot themselves in the foot like this. The Democrats, despite being a much more fragmented and dysfunctional party, never seems to have their party pull stunts like this. I don't know if it's something in the psychology of Republicans that force them to fight amongst themselves or if the Democrats have better leadership (in terms of whipping the party).