Assad regime reeling after Jihadist rebels take Hama, another major city.

 

A Syrian rebel covers his ears while an MLRS fires near Hama. Fox News/AFP.

The regime of Bashar al-Assad is reeling after jihadist rebels have taken the strategic city of Hama just days after the fall of Aleppo. Fox News. The shocking advance, led by the Jihadist group Hayat Tahir al-Sham (formally al-Nusra), has caught many people off guard and is one of the most significant of the long simmer civil war. HTS has captured large stockpiles of weapons and even aircraft from the regime and there are fears that they may have even captured stockpiles of chemical weapons. There is also a fear that the chaos could be exploited by the other major terror group in the region, ISIS, which has managed to take some territory in the desert near Homs and Deir ez Zor. So far the United States has remained neutral in the fight, with the 900 or so troops in Syria not participating in the battle. But Russia and Iraq-based and Iranian backed militias are helping the Syrian regime. 

My Comment:

I will admit that I wasn't paying close attention to the situation in Syria and that was a mistake given how quickly things have advanced. Just a few days ago the regime was in a very secure situation and there was very little threat. Now, Syria has lost one of their biggest cities, Aleppo, and now they have lost Hama too, without much of a fight. 

How did this happen? Supposedly HTS has been planning this attack for four years now so they were well prepared and have found good weapons. But the Syrian regime? I am guessing they were resting on their laurels. They were very obviously not prepared for the size of this success and have not put up much of a fight here. 

And failure compounds. The shocking loss of Aleppo made the regime forces even less motivated to fight. Losing Hama will hurt morale even worse. There is a real possibility that the regime military breaks entirely and collapses, which will through the entire country into chaos and could even cost the regime the war. The only major city between Hama and Damascus itself is Homs, and supposedly the HTS rebels are getting closer to Homs as I write this. 

There is also the possibility that HTS will be able to cut a large portion of the country off. If they continue south they could cut off the Tartus and Latakia governates. This would cut off the rest of Syria from the sea and make it dramatically more different to supply the rest of the country. 

Though it's very possible that the Syrian regime could collapse, I do think it's very possible they turn things around. My gut says that HTS has overextended themselves and such an advance isn't really sustainable. Syria's allies are going to be able to join the fight the longer time passes and it will restore some of the advantages Syria had during the rest of the war. 

The problem is that both of Syria's major allies, Russia and Iran, have their own problems. Russia does has forces to spare, but the Ukraine conflict is obviously a huge drain on resources. And Iran's proxies have faced major setbacks in their war with Israel. Hezbollah is in a very bad position with much of their leadership dead. The only force that I can say has nothing else going on are the Iraq based and Iran backed militias, which will at least give the Syrians some bodies to try and stem the tide.

Of course Syria is the war where everyone shows up so there are other countries that will have a say in what happens in Syria as well. The United States is supposedly neutral but I would say they are more sympathetic to the Jihadists, though their real concern is both ISIS and Russia. Israel's main concern is of course any Hezbollah or Iran backed militias which means they are de facto allied with HTS, even though there is no love lost there either. 

Turkey is the true wildcard and I wouldn't be surprised if this offensive is at least partially their doing. Chaos in Syria works in their advantage as they want the regime weakened or destroyed so they can go after the Kurds in the north. They are still concerned with Kurdish terror groups and want a free hand to destroy them. Or, more cynically, they just hate Kurds period. 

ISIS is another major player and they aren't allied to anyone. But they are using the chaos to take some territory again and that does not bode well. When ISIS had control of major parts of Syria they were able to use the taxes they made to fund attacks across the world. It's very possible if the HTS offensive continues to be effective that they could try and take over a major city. And if that happens? Nothing good happens. 

With all that being said it's pretty obvious what happens next. Either the regime finds its backbone and makes a stand on Homs, or it doesn't and the war comes to Damascus in the next month. If it does I expect the regime to begin a grinding offensive to take back what is lost. If it doesn't, then the whole country will fall into chaos we haven't seen in a long time in Syria...