More subway crime in New York City, man pushed in front of train miraculously survives,

 

The victim, in the brown jacket, moments before being pushed onto the tracks. New York Post.

In another example of a horrifying subway crime a man in New York City was pushed in front of a subway train but survived miraculously. New York Post. A 45 year old man was checking his phone when a young man in a hooded sweatshirt pushed him onto the tracks. The man somehow landed perfectly so he only suffered minor head wounds and is in stable condition. Two possible accomplices were seen hopping the turnstile before the attack and fleeing afterwards. The suspect was a 23 year old man who was arrested shortly after. His name is Kamal Hawkins and police have indicated that he has a lengthy criminal record, including a 2019 assault on a police officer an open case for assault and weapons possession and a third incident where he was granted bail despite officers requesting that he not receive bail. He has now been charged with 1st degree attempted murder. The incident is part of a series of horrific subway crimes, including the incident earlier in the month where a woman was set on fire by an illegal immigrant. 

🚨 #BREAKING: A man was just PUSHED in front of a NYC Subway train in an apparent “random attack”

The man is currently in critical condition, and witnesses can be heard shouting “he’s alive!” as the victim is pulled from underneath the train

Gov. Hochul, Biden, and the… pic.twitter.com/wYchyUMy1Y

— Nick Sortor (@nicksortor) December 31, 2024

My Comment:

Yet another horrible attack on the New York Subway. I honestly am surprised that folks still go on it the way things are going. This attack was for no apparent reason and it's a miracle that the victim in this case wasn't killed instantly. Supposedly he fell perfectly so that he was between the tracks and not directly in the path of the train. 

Of course it looks like this guy should not have even be on the street. It sounds like he was out without bail and wasn't held as a dangerous person despite a criminal record where he put a police officer in the hospital. Is it any wonder why he's still committing crime. In a sane world he would be in jail or prison.

It's unclear what the motive for this case is and we will probably never find out. Given the race of the attacker and the victim it could be a hate crime, but it could also be a simple case of a psychopath committing a random crime. Regardless, I think that this case will probably get buried pretty soon.  

I do think this is a good example of why situational awareness is such a good thing. I'm not blaming the victim but given how dangerous New York subways are, I can't imagine looking down at my phone while there were a group of sinister looking folks mingling behind me. I don't like looking at my phone while I fill my car with gas here in Wisconsin and it's incredibly safe here compared to New York City. Had he been keeping his eyes on the situation and had his back to a wall, he would have been fine. Not that he should have to but that's the world we live in apparently.  

Either way this is another example of the criminal justice system not working. Though the stats claim that crime is down in New York City this incident shows that's a lie. Many crimes are not reported and those that are are mostly not investigated to the point of an arrest. And often times when there is an arrest, the suspect is released without bail anyways. 

It leads to this situation. I don't know what the suspect motive was but I do think that he thought he could get away with it. He was wrong, the police still respond to crimes that end up going viral in the news, but if New York actually punished the criminals then perhaps this wouldn't have happened. 

This case also is a good example of how "broken windows" policing wasn't wrong. In that theory, police should focus on minor crimes to prevent major ones, like arresting hooligans that brake windows. In this case had the police been there and been able to arrest the accomplices for the turnstile jumping than perhaps this case would have never happened. Policing has moved far away from this theory and this appears to be the result... 

Biden announces $5.9 billion more for Ukraine...

 

Joe Biden and Zelensky. Reuters. 

Joe Biden has announced another $5.9 billion more for aid in Ukraine. Reuters. Of the aid, $3.4 billion will be economic aid. $1.25 billion will be immediate military aid drawn from US weapons stockpiles and will also include $1.22 billion in longer term military aid. The aid will be the last authorized under the 2024 security budget and should be the last money given to Ukraine under Biden. In total Ukraine has seen a staggering $175 billion in aid from the United States alone. It is unclear if President Elect Donald Trump will continue to send aid to Ukraine.

My Comment:

$175 billion. For what? A bunch of dead Ukrainians and Russians? The destruction of a huge amount of military equipment? For a war that is obviously going to end with a Russian victory? For a dramatically higher chance of a nuclear war? It's an absurd amount of money and there is essentially no reason why Ukraine should have gotten a single thin penny. 

Can you imagine how much good that money could have done if it had been spent here? We could have rebuilt East Palestine Ohio, Lahaina Hawaii and all the areas ravaged by Hurricane Helene. We could have solved our homeless problem several times over. We could have built the wall and stopped illegal immigration. Sure, much of that aid was in equipment but you can't tell me that we didn't send billions of dollars in cold hard cash to Ukraine that could have been spent here. 

And it's all for nothing! Russia is winning the war. They keep making steady advances and Ukraine is simply running out of troops. They have almost nothing left, once they start drafting the 18 year old men, which is happening soon, they will have no manpower well to draw from anymore. They are out of the western wunderwaffen to the point where even the ATACMS are being shepherded because they simply don't have the stockpiles anymore. 

Instead of acknowledging the obvious, Biden is still doubling down yet again. And it's too the point where I don't think President Elect Trump is going to be able to do anything to stop the war. Putin won't listen anymore for obvious reasons, how could he trust Trump when in four years he is gone and any deal he makes could be overturned by whoever the new president is?

I just hope when Ukraine does fall, and it will, Biden is the one that gets the lion's share of the blame. This was his war and he's the one that decided it was more important to prop up a hopeless war in Ukraine than helping his own people. He's going to leave Trump holding the bag and I think they want him to be the fall-guy and I sincerely hope that folks don't fall for it. 

Former President Jimmy Carter passes away at 100 years of age.

 

Former President Jimmy Carter. NPR/AP

Former President Jimmy Carter has passed away at 100 years of age after a long battle with cancer. NPR. Carter started his political career as a governor of Georgia and then won his 1976 presidential race against Gerald Ford. Carter's term was wracked with foreign policy and economic issues, most notably inflation and the Arab Oil Embargo, leaving most experts to rate his presidency as a failure, though some appreciate the lack of foreign conflict during his term and the major peace deal between Egypt and Israel that he brokered. Despite the controversy of his presidency, which he lost in a landslide to Ronald Regan, few would argue that Carter did not have a successful post-presidency career of philanthropy. Carter's work with Habitat for Humanity, which built low income housing for the poor, is universally lauded. 

My Comment:

Jimmy Carter was the last living president that I have no memory of him serving as he left office before I was even born, which just goes to show how long he survived. For me, Carter wasn't really a president, he was just the guy that was building houses for poor people and that probably should be his legacy.

Because his presidency? It wasn't a good one. He tried at least but both his policies and luck came in and he didn't rise to the occasion. There was a reason why Carter lost in a landslide to Regan in 1980 (who is the first president I remember as a President) and it was inflation and fuel costs. 

Despite his failures though, I still don't think he was the worst modern president and he is obviously better than some historical ones, like James Buchanan. He did have the one major foreign policy win, the peace deal between Egypt and Israel, which has held to today, and he deserves a lot of credit for that. He also was one of the few modern American presidents to not get us into a shooting war for dubious reasons, so that is in his favor as well. 

I'd say that Joe Biden was a much worse 1-term president than Carter ever was. Unlike Carter, you never got the feeling that Biden gave a damn about the average person that was suffering under his penalties. And Biden never had a single foreign policy win and oversaw the launch of one of the worst modern wars, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, not to mention the Afghanistan disaster. I often liked to joke that Carter lived long enough to see a much worse president than he ever was and I think there is some truth to it. It certainly made us rethink his presidency, as bad as it was, at least he wasn't Biden. 

I do have to say that I felt pretty bad for Carter. It was clear that he has been essentially gone for quite some time now and some of the pictures his family released of him were just sad. He made it to 100 years old, but the quality of life was not there and I feel bad that he had to be seen in that condition. Sometimes death is a blessing and I think in this case it was so. I am glad he is at peace now. 

Carter will get a state funeral and the question is if it will happen before or after the inauguration. Planning two such huge events in Washington DC will be interesting to say the least. Trump is inaugurated on the 20th but I would think the funeral would be before hand, so it might be the last big event that Biden presides over. Hopefully the funeral will be used as a way for Republicans and Democrats to put some of the bad feelings aside and come together for the country... 

Homelessness has increased dramatically under the past two years...

 

File photo of a homeless camp in Los Angeles in 2023. AP. 

Homelessness has increased by 18% this year, which is on top of a 12% increase in 2023. AP. With the new number 23 out of every 10,000 people in the United States are homeless. The increase is being blamed on immigration, a lack of cheap housing and several major natural disasters. Family homelessness has increased by 40%, mostly due to immigration. There is some good news as some cities have reduced their homeless population and the number of homeless veterans has dropped considerably. 

My Comment:

Fairly negative economic news and one that gives lie to the state of the Biden economy. Obviously there wouldn't be so many folks living on the street if our economy was as good as Joe Biden had argued. But a 30% increase in two years is pretty devastating. In total around 770,000 folks in America are homeless, mostly concentrated in our big cities. 

There are, of course, a lot of different kinds of homeless. The most visible group is obviously the bums living in the streets, like in Skid Row in LA. Those folks are the most visible and the cause of most of the problems. They are an extremely hard problem to fact because most of them enjoy the lifestyle and refuse to go to shelters even when they are available due to the rules those places have concerning drug and alcohol abuse. 

These kinds of homeless are also the most violent and mentally ill and the one that normal folks have to fear. Many of them refuse any help and are fine with causing problems for everyone else. Most of these folks would either have been institutionalized or imprisoned in earlier times in this country and the fact that we don't do that anymore is most of the problem. They aren't going to be helped by building affordable housing.

The 2nd group absolutely would be helped by affordable housing, and that's the "couch surfer" group, the temporary homeless that fell on hard times. Maybe they had an emergency and couldn't make their rent, maybe they lost their job or maybe they lost their home due to natural disaster. These folks are the ones hit hardest by the sky-high cost of living and would be the ones we could actually help if we took steps to get housing costs under control. 

It's the 3rd group that is the most frustrating and that's the massive number of illegal aliens that end up homeless. Not every illegal immigrant gets on welfare or steals a job from an American, many of them end up on the streets, which is somehow still better for them than the place they came from. This group has the easiest solution, just deport them and that would fix the problem. Indeed, deporting illegal aliens in general would help as it would not only lower housing costs it would free up jobs for folks at the lower end of the economic classes. 

I do think that this is a problem that could get worse if nothing is done. Housing prices are out of control to the point where it's extremely difficult for a normal person to buy an actual house, and sometimes even just rent an apartment. I know in my area, I'm priced out of buying a home due to both the absurd cost of the home itself and the high interest rates, and I have more than a year's salary saved up. No matter how I try to budget it the cost of a home payment alone would be more than I am paying in my heat included apartment. If things keep going the way things are going entire generations of Americans are going to be priced out of the market... 

Previously deported illegal immigrant lights a woman on fire on New York Subway, killing her.

 

NYPD arresting the suspect in the attack. Fox News/New York Post. 

A previously deported illegal immigrant set a woman on fire on a New York Subway, killing her. Fox News. The suspect, Sebastin Zapeta, is a 33 year old man from Guatemala, and has been charged with first degree murder and first degree arson. Video shows the man lighting a woman on fire as she slept on the subway for no apparent reason. The women went up in flames and was not extinguished in time to save her life. The suspect watched her as she burned. He was then later arrested by police. Zapeta was arrested in 2018 in Arizona after illegally crossing the border and was deported quickly after. It is unclear when he reentered the country. At this time little is known of the victim of the attack. 

My Comment: 

After some debate I decided to not post the video of this poor woman burning to death while this monster watched and apparently even fanned the flames. It's all over social media of course but I am not sure if Blogger would apricate me hosting the video. It's also horrific and not something a lot of people would want to see in the first place. Personally, it's one of the worst things I have seen, and this blog shows I have covered some absolutely horrific things. 

This story is going to be impactful because it plays onto so many hot-button political issues. Illegal immigration, crime, the recent trial against Daniel Penny, the Democrats failing their cities. And the bystander effect as well. It's an absolute mess and I think it's going to anger a lot of people. 

This was, like all crimes committed by an illegal immigrant, preventable. The woman that died in this attack should be alive right now. Right now we know nothing about her but she didn't deserve to die like this. Nobody does. Had Zapeta not been let back into the country through the Biden administration's open borders none of this would have happened. 

It's also another example of how dangerous New York subways actually are. Why would anyone go into one now after this? Especially since so many other crimes have happened on the subways? Amazingly enough just after this happened New York Governor Kathy was tweeting about how subway safety was better now. Bad timing. 

Folks are also very upset that nobody helped this woman as she was burning alive. The bystanders did nothing but film her and even the police were shown just walking by instead of helping her in any way whatsoever. Some of that might have been them trying to get a fire extinguisher, but you would think that they would at least tell her to stop drop and roll? 

Nobody also stopped Zapeta from lighting this woman on fire and then fanning the flames either and I am not really surprised why. The last person that tried to stop a violent maniac from hurting folks on a subway was arrested and put on trial for it. Why would anyone step up when folks like Daniel Penny are punished and persecuted for it? Better to just let the violence happen, which is why all this violence is happening in the first place. It's hard to get folks to do anything in the first place, the bystander effect is real, 

You can argue that even if New York was going to punish you if you had stopped Zapeta from doing this, you should have done it anyways. But there has been a chilling effect on this kind of action in this country for pretty obvious reasons. Folks are more afraid of doing the right thing than being called a coward for not doing the right thing. Had I seen something similar here in Wisconsin, there is no question that at the very least Zapeta would have been turned into the police in a rough state. But I live in a purple state with decent self defense laws. In New York City? I don't know what I would do. 

Regardless, this is going to be a story that sticks with people. You don't forget such a senseless and preventable crime and had it happened before the election, Trump would have won the election by an even wider margin. 

I'd also say that Trump and other immigration sceptics just keep getting proven right. Between this case, and the recent car ramming attack in Germany, it's hard to take pro-illegal immigration folks seriously. In both cases a person that probably shouldn't have been in the country they were in committed horrible crimes. Why they did so hardly matters but the fact is that none of these people needed to die. And if the government refuses to do anything about it then those governments will be replaced by one that will. Just ask Joe Biden... 

President Elect Trump says he will designate Mexican Drug Cartels as terrorist organizations.

 

Donald Trump during the speech when he made the announcement. Reuters. 

President Elect Donald Trump has vowed to designate Mexican drug cartels as terrorists organizations in a wider operation to control the flow of drugs into America. Reuters. Trump had made the threat during his first time but backed off after gaining cooperation from Mexico's former President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. However, the flow of drugs has not subsided, with around 50,000 to 60,000 deaths expected from fentanyl and other related drugs. Trump said that the military could use covert and overt operations against the cartels involving special operations and cyber-warfare. In addition to the campaign against the cartels directly, Trump seeks to convince people to not be their customers, with a new ad campaign that would show the devastating effects drugs have on people, saying they would focus on how it can destroy your looks. 

My Comment:

This story kind of flew under the radar but it's kind of a huge deal. Trump essentially said that military force could be used against the Mexican drug cartels, which would finally involve the United States directly into the war. Regardless of what you think of that idea, you would think that would be the key takeaway from the story. But nope, half of the article was about Trump's plan to run some anti-drug advertisements. 

Will those ads accomplish much? Probably not. I don't think that the original Just Say No campaign did much and there was evidence that scare tactics, like the DARE program back in the day, actually did more damage than they helped. I think if you are going to run ads like this, appealing to vanity isn't the worst idea. I remember the "faces of meth" campaign and I think that was probably at least somewhat successful. Showing folks a bunch of fentanyl zombies might make them think twice about trying drugs for the first time. 

Regardless, that's not the main takeaway we should have from this announcement. Trump has essentially announced a potential military campaign. Designating the cartels as terrorists wouldn't necessarily result in combat, but Trump did say that we could be taking more direct action against them. 

But we should note that military action isn't the only thing this would affect. There would be legal action to be taken as well and it would also mean that folks with links to the cartels would be fast tracked deported if they were here illegally. 

The real question is what the government of Mexico will do. Trump does not have the kind of relationship with the new President, Claudia Pardo, that he had with AMLO and she has been trying to play hardball with him over the tariff issue. It's possible that this is just a threat on Trump's part and one that could be avoided if Pardo plays ball, like AMLO did. 

But if Pardo doesn't play ball, then I think it's very possible we could take some limited military action against the cartels. We certainly have a casus belli against them, they are facilitating the deaths of thousands of Americans every year and they represent a threat to our borders and citizens as well. And they seem to understand little else other than violence. 

Will it work out? It depends on what the goal is. If you are Mexico you probably aren't happy as any campaign against the leadership of the cartels would probably lead to civil wars in the cartels. But for America, that's a solution, not a problem. Chaos in the cartels means less drugs getting into America and fewer problems caused by those drugs. 

The one thing that could be a problem though is we could see reprisal attacks from the cartels. Right now they mostly leave American citizens alone, to avoid this very scenario. But if we declare war against them in a de facto manor, they may do the same to us, which could lead to terror attacks in the homeland and kidnappings and murders to US citizens in Mexico. 

But I think we have to do something. The drug problem is getting worse and it's a major reason why our life expectancy is so bad. Stopping, or even slowing down, the amount of Fentanyl out there would be a major good, even if the cost is violence... 

Who knows what will come to pass though. Trump's not in power yet and he is known to take a hard line as a negotiating tactic. Like I said, this could just be a message to Pardo, play ball or else. A deal could be made or it could be a bluff. Time will tell I guess. 

US Congresswoman Kay Granger found living in a memory care facility...

 

Texas representative Kay Granger (R) on the right. Dallas Express. 

US Congresswoman Kay Granger, a Republican in 12th district in Texas, has been found living in a memory care facility. Dallas Express. Granger has not showed up for a vote in Congress since July 24th and when reporters came to visit her office there was nobody there. Calls were also not returned. A tip stated that Granger was a resident of a memory care facility and had an incident where she had been found wandering in her former neighborhood. The managers of the memory facility were able to confirm that Granger was indeed a resident but did not grant an interview. Granger was retiring from her position and another Republican, Craig Goldman won her seat, raising questions as to why Granger hasn't retired. 

My Comment:

I know I have said this before but I will keep harping on this. America is starting to turn into the Soviet Union right before they collapsed where they had a series of geriatric leaders that were really unable to govern. It was true with Joe Biden. It's true with Mitch McConnell. It's true with Nancy Pelosi, and it was true with Dianne Feinstein until she died in office. And now it's true with Kay Granger as well. 

To be fair, I do sympathize with Granger, along with the rest of these folks. Aging is a hard thing and I wouldn't wish Alzheimer's and/or Dementia on anyone. I have seen first hand what it can do to people and it's absolutely heartbreaking when someone you love doesn't recognize you or doesn't remember that you visited them. 

But at some people folks need to step up and say that you can't be in control of the government when your brain doesn't work anymore. It's one thing when you are Trump, where you are old but still sharp, but many of these leaders are just not there anymore. And it's leading to bad outcomes. 

And this isn't a partisan issue. The Dallas Express, that broke this story, is a conservative outlet. I am guessing the folks that own the paper were pretty angry that Granger wasn't there for the crucial budget vote that got passed this weekend, and understandably so. Granger was not fulfilling her duties and the folks that voted for her in 2022 were not being served by her. 

I can tell you first hand how annoying it is to not actually have a congressman. I live in Mike Gallagher's district in Wisconsin and after his unexpected retirement I was left without a congressman for many months until we got one back during election day (Tony Wied ran two campaigns, one for the 2024 term and one for the remainder of Gallagher's term). But at least in my case Gallagher's office was still open for the day to day stuff. 

It appears that Granger's office didn't even do that. She had a staff of around 25 people but their office was closed and there didn't appear to be any constituent services available. She and her staff were drawing a salary even though they weren't going to do anything to help the people. 

What is worse is that the GOP appears to have been somewhat complicit with this. Granger has made some public appearances after her last vote in July, but it should have been obvious that she was no longer fit to serve. But if it hadn't been for a local news outlet in Texas the people would have never known. 

It really does seem like we need some kind of reform on this area. We should not have a permanent political class that continues to run the country even though they aren't capable of doing the job. Some of this is the fact that a lot of these folks are in safe red or blue areas. At least when Biden was shown to be senile, we could vote him out of office, but how do you get rid of someone like Kay Granger? Granger won her post with 64% of the vote. She wisely didn't run in 2024, but if she had? Would there be any way to get rid of her? 

Maybe we should have some basic cognitive test for elected officials?

This is getting crazy … https://t.co/raE6dAS1jm

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) December 22, 2024

Elon Musk suggests some kind of test and there are such tests available, like the MMSE and SAGE tests that can be used to detect senility and dementia. But right now there isn't a way to actually get candidates and serving officials to take them. Both Trump and Biden laughed off attempts to take these tests and though Trump at least can point to his public appearances to show that he isn't senile, Biden did not. But regardless, these tests aren't mandatory but perhaps they should be?

Another possibility is term limits. Kay Granger has been in the house for 27 years, since 1997. Now I do think that the term limits proposed are a bit too low, you should be able to stay for more than two terms, but do we really need folks in office for more than 20 years? There perhaps should be some kind of limit, combined with age. 

Either way, I think this is going to be a scandal for the Republicans and one that is just going to frustrate people on both sides of the political spectrum. For the Presidency at least, we should be getting someone younger when Trump leaves office in 2028. But what are we going to do with all these ancient folks in congress? Because I doubt Granger is the only one that has issues... 

Car ramming attack in Germany leaves dozens injured.

 

The aftermath of the attack in Magdeburg Germany. AP. 

A car ramming attack on a Christmas market in Magdeburg Germany has left at least one person dead and dozens wounded. AP. The driver was arrested by police and the police have confirmed that it was a deliberate act. Video was taken of the attack and showed the vehicle ramming into dozens of people before driving off. Christmas markets are a strong tradition in Germany, but this is not the first attack of its kind on one. In 2016 an Islamic State supporter killed 13 people in Berlin in a similar attack, and was later killed by police in a shootout in Italy. No motive for this attack has been released at this time. 

My Comment:

This is a breaking news story and, as always, the casualty figures could change. Other sources are saying 11 dead and 60 wounded but those are not universal and many bigger outlets are going with the 1 dead 50 wounded numbers. It's very possible that both numbers could be wrong, so keep that in mind. 

As for the attack itself, it really isn't surprising. Christmas markets are key targets for vehicle ramming attacks as they usually have little in the way of defenses and are target rich environment. You have a huge number of people all crowded together and they may not have the ability to escape. That's exactly what happened here, I saw the video that was posted on social media and those folks had little chance. 

It hasn't been confirmed that this was Islamic terrorism, but that would be my bet. ISIS has a long history of vehicle ramming attacks so it would be somewhat surprising if it wasn't them. It wouldn't be unprecedented of course, a similar attack on a Christmas parade here in Wisconsin, the Waukesha ramming attack was committed by a black nationalist racist. But for what it is worth, there are photos of the arrest on social media and it looks like it was a vaguely Arabic looking man, though who knows if that is accurate. 

If it is ISIS or other Islamic terrorism I would not be surprised. ISIS has made a bit of a comeback recently and controls territory in both Syria and Afghanistan. It would no be surprising if they funded or at least inspired this attack. And there is always the threat of the attacker being a lone wolf, the low complexity of the attack certainly suggests that. 

There should be questions asked of the local German officials as to why there didn't appear to be any defenses at this market. All it takes is a moveable concrete barrier to block of car lanes to prevent most of these attacks. I couldn't see any on the video of the attack or in the aftermath, but either they weren't present or they were placed in such a way that the attacker was able to evade them. Either way, this was mostly likely a preventable attack. 

Triple homicide suspect attempted to assassinate Nicholas Fuentes before being shot and killed by police.

 

Police tape near the scene of the crime. Chicago Tribune. 

Triple homicide suspect apparently tried to assassinate notorious America First leader Nicholas Fuentes before being shot and killed by police. Chicago Tribune. The man, John Lyons, was a suspect in a triple homicide against the Mason family in Mahomet Illinois. He then drove to Chicago to the home of Nicholas Fuentes, who had his address leaked online in the wake of his controversial "your body, my choice" statement in the wake of the election. The suspect knocked on the door but was unable to get inside to Fuentes, who had called the police during his stream. Lyons then fled into another home and shot and killed two dogs that were inside before getting into and losing a shootout with police. No police were harmed but Lyons was killed. The incident comes after Fuentes faced arrest after pepper spraying another person who had showed up and his house and comes after the high profile assassination of United Healthcare CEO Brian Thompson. 

The killer parked his car in front of my house and approached my door with his pistol drawn and what appears to be a crossbow. I was livestreaming at the time.

He rings the door bell, tries the doorknob and yells “yo Nick!” pic.twitter.com/5y1LF3Dv56

— Nicholas J. Fuentes (@NickJFuentes) December 19, 2024

My Comment:

Very strange story out of Chicago. Normally I don't cover this kind of story but given I have talked about Fuentes before and I think this incident may speak to larger issues, I think it is worth covering. This is a breaking news story though, so much of this will be speculation. 

This may be the only time I feel any sympathy for Nicholas Fuentes. He's a notorious figure and I have been disgusted with him ever since he and Milo Yiannapolus ambushed Donald Trump while Trump was trying to help Kanye West during his mental breakdown. I always thought that was an attempt to damage the career of Donald Trump and though most folks saw it for what it was, I have never forgiven either man. Since then he's been getting into all kinds of trouble and more than a few people think he's on the payroll of the government due to not being charged with his role on January 6th. 

He's also kind of an idiot. He's gotten all kinds of personal scandals and has also trolled the world. Folks were not happy with him when he made his "your body my choice" statement after the election. He was doxed and some crazy lefty lady ended up showing up at his house and got maced and had her phone stolen for the trouble. He has a ton of enemies on all sides of the political spectrum and even if ignoring his politics, he's kind of a joke. He's a right wing Chris-Chan, a notorious internet figure.   

But he also almost got murdered. To his credit, he was smart enough to not open the door, perhaps learning a lesson from the lady he maced. Indeed, she might have indirectly saved his life as he might have opened the door if that hadn't happened. Regardless, had the killer managed to get close enough to Fuentes I have no doubt that he would have tried to kill him, and given the guy killed three people and two dogs, I think he would have succeeded. 

It's unclear what the motive of this crime was. We have very little information on the family he killed or why he targeted them. It's even possible that he wasn't actually involved, though I doubt that at this point. What we can say for sure is that he was targeting Fuentes directly. Fuentes posted video that showed him saying "Hey Nick" and trying to enter his home. That shows that this wasn't some kind of random crime, but a targeted attack. 

What do I think happened? Well, regardless of his motivation in killing the Mason family, I think after that he probably drew inspiration from the murder of United Healthcare CEO Brian Thompson. The suspect in that case, who has gotten enough attention already to be named again here, is now a folk hero for some folks on the left. My guess is that Lyons was going for the same thing. He wanted to get the same adoration and press that the suspect in that case is getting now and since he was, at best, going to prison for a triple homicide he might as well. It might even have been a play for jury nullification, as enough people hate Fuentes that they could hang a jury on the triple homicide, as sad as it is to say. That is of course speculation, but I am guessing we will find out the truth as the media catches on to this story.

I do think that we are probably going to see more of this, regardless of the actual motive. There has been a large number of high profile assassination and assassination attempts on public figures, mostly on the right or at least enemies of the left, including this case, the Brian Thompson murder and the two attempts on Donald Trump's life. The intense media coverage of these cases appears to be causing copycats and it may overtake school shootings as the go too outlet for angry folks looking to get famous. 

I also think that folks that are media personalities like Fuentes are at a higher risk. Fuentes apparently has security (unless he's just trying to grift on that) but a lot of smaller folks don't have that luxury. And all it takes is one disturbed person to get an address or work location and something like this could happen again. 

As for Fuentes himself, I am sure he will exploit this for sympathy and money. To be fair to him, he has a case this time, he was absolutely almost just murdered. But it's still frustrating that he is going to milk this for all it is worth. I am glad that he wasn't killed, even idiots like him don't deserve to be murdered over politics, but I also wish he would take the hint and get out of the public space. He's not someone that I like at all and I hate that I am in a position where I have to kind of defend him a bit. 

Donald Trump sues Des Moines Register after Iowa polling disaster.

 

President-Elect Donald J. Trump. BBC/Getty.

Donald Trump has filed a lawsuit against the Des Moines Register over a wildly inaccurate 2024 poll. BBC. Trump accused the pollster, J. Ann Selzer of "blatant election interference" for the poll that showed Kamala Harris with a 3 to 4 point lead in Iowa. All other polling Iowa showed Trump in a comfortable lead and he went on to carry the state by 13 points. Trump accused Selzer of intentionally skewing the poll results to damage his campaign and help prop up a faltering Harris campaign. Trump has been litigious lately, winning a settlement against ABC News, which falsely accused him of being found guilty of rape. 

My Comment:

I am not sure, but this seems like a fairly unprecedented development. As far as I know, nobody has sued for an outlier poll before. But this was hardly just any poll. It caused an absolute firestorm when it was released and it did indeed give some lifeblood to the Harris campaign. 

The question is if it was just a genuine mistake by the pollster, J. Ann Selzer, or if she did this with malice. There is an argument to be made for both, and I am sure both sides will be heard in court assuming the case isn't settled. 

Polling is a tricky business after all, they have very consistently had trouble polling for Trump supporters and that was just as true in 2024. It's very possible that Selzer just screwed up and was polling the absolute worst demographics for the election in Iowa. From what I have heard she did try to focus on college towns which could obviously skew the results. That alone could have been enough to get these crazy results. 

But it's also very possible that this was a push poll, done on purpose to try and help the Harris campaign. Supposedly the poll results were forwarded to some Democrats before the poll was released, which at least gives the appearance of corruption. 

What makes me think it was the 2nd option was that Selzer had a good reputation as a pollster until 2024. Indeed, her earlier polls in the cycle were a lot more accurate. And she had to know what the implications would be if she focused on the college towns instead of the more traditional rural areas of the state. And she also had to know the trends with the rest of the polling industry and the internal polls of both the Democrats and Republicans that showed Trump ahead in Iowa. In short, she's too good at her job to be this incompetent. 

Will Trump win his lawsuit? It's possible. The Des Moines Register might just want this to go away and they could settle like ABC News did. If Trump's claims are found to be true, which I think they will be, they probably stand to lose a lot more than they would if they just settled. And I think Trump is at least likely to win the court case as he would in a defamation claim against ABC News. 

Of course the real effect will be that folks will be scared to try and do this again. Folks in the polling industry now know that if a poll is farcical then they risk a lawsuit over it. This should help against this kind of thing happening again.

And to be clear, this did have an effect in the 2024 race. The Harris camp and the Democrats were in desperation territory before this poll came out. They were afraid that folks would just stay home and not even vote because there was no point. So this poll came out and gave them some kind of hope right when things were at their lowest and gave them a shot in the arm. It ended up not mattering, Harris lost in a landslide, but if this was a closer race like 2020 was then it could have turned the course of the election. I do think that if this was a case of a pollster lying than there absolutely should be a punishment for it. Our elections do depend on accurate polling to a degree and if this was a case of the pollster going above and beyond to try and swing the race than they should absolutely be punished for it. 

Prisoner filmed by CNN in Syria may actually be a war criminal...

 

The supposed prisoner (center). New York Post/CNN.

A prisoner filmed by CNN supposedly being released after being held by the Syrian regime may actually be a war criminal. New York Post. The footage, which showed CNN reporter Clarissa Ward leading a prisoner out of jail for the first time in three months, went viral last week, with few questioning it. However, a fact checker claimed that the prisoner, named Adel Ghurbal in the video, was actually 1st Lieutenant Salama Mohammad Salama, a member of Syria's Air Force Intelligence service. Local residents claimed that he had killed civilians during the war in Homs and used his position to extort civilians as well. The civilians say he was locked up for not sharing his ill-gotten gains with his superiors and was not a political prisoner at all. The fact checkers also allege he was there for less than a month and was not held in as bad of conditions as he claimed. CNN says they are investigating the matter. 

My Comment:

Strange story out of the Syria conflict and one that makes CNN look like fools. They apparently didn't do any vetting of this situation before they actually released the video and now it looks like they were victims of a scam job. 

Was Lieutenant Salama in prison? Sure looks like it. But that's about all about his story that seems verified. If the reports of his identity are true, it's possible the whole thing was an intelligence or propaganda operation. Indeed, it might have been the Jihadists who took over Syria trying to make the Syrian regime look worse than it is by portraying them as a regime that holds innocent people in the dark for three months. That isn't to say that the Assad regime wasn't brutal, but it does seem to be demonization on the part of the rebels to try and justify their rebellion. 

It does seem like this guy, if the fact check is true, was a pretty huge scumbag. He abused his position of power t exploit and harm civilians and even commit war crimes. He was a victim of the regime only in that he made the wrong superior angry and got what he honestly deserved. He's someone that should be locked up, assuming the fact check is right.

Either way, CNN screwed up here, and badly. They absolutely should have vetted the footage and made sure that man was who he said he was. Indeed, this almost seems like the reporters in this case were almost painfully naive, assuming they weren't in on the scam. The whole point of journalism is asking questions but none of the people involved in this story thought to ask if a man that was in prison was actually a good guy?

And it's not like there weren't signs. In retrospect something was obviously up when the guy was supposedly held in the dark for three months was able to see just fine when he walked out side. He looked like he was in good health and had no visible signs of torture or even distress. But CNN just repeated his claims like they were the gospel. 

It's another example of how modern journalism is a joke. I took locals working on the ground to debunk this story and they sound like real journalists, compared to CNN that bought this hook line and sinker, assuming they didn't play a part in setting it up. It's just another example of journalism in general and CNN in particular not having good journalistic standards. 

The Pentagon says the drones flying over New Jersey aren't from Iran, but where are they from?

 

A screengrab showing one of the drones. ABC News.

The Pentagon does not know where a group of drones that have been flying over New Jersey are from but shot down the idea that they were from Iran. ABC News. The drones have been sighted over south and central New Jersey and have even been seen over military bases. Congressman Jeff Van Drew said that sources had told him that the drones were being launched from an Iranian ship at sea in the Atlantic but the Pentagon shot down this theory. Local officials have been upset at the lack of transparency over the drones. The Pentagon also says that the drones are not hobbyist drones or anything from the United States military.  Officials are demanding more transparency and some kind of response to the drone incursions. 

My Comment:

I have been following this story for awhile now it it's frankly disturbing and follows a rash of these kinds of counters at military bases around the world. And the Pentagon doesn't seem to have a clue as to what they are. 

I do think that the majority of sightings are not civilian drones. A few might be, I am sure there are few pranksters that are trying to get in on the action, but the ones that are the size of cars are too big and show capabilities that most commercial drones don't have. These drones are able to fly for hours and are simply too big to be civilian in nature. 

The idea that it could be Iran is plausible, though I think if that was the case we would know it for sure. Plus, Iran does have sophisticated drones, but they are mostly kamikaze stile drones used in strikes, not these kind of drones that loiter in an area for hours. Plus, a "mothership" in the Atlantic would be fairly easy to detect and intercept. 

Russia and China are the other main suspect if the objects are indeed terrestrial. Both have sophisticated drone operations and could have a "mothership", most likely a submarine, in the Atlantic ocean. And they certainly have a motivation to spy on the United States. And after the spy balloon debacle, we absolutely know China is willing to violate our airspace. I would say that China is the most likely suspect. 

It's also possible, perhaps even probable, that these are drones operated by the US government. The government could be lying about it, or it could be an example of the left hand of the government not knowing what the right hand is doing. What makes me think this isn't the case though is if this was some kind of test of new drone systems it wouldn't be happening in the populated area on the East Coast. It would be at Area 51 or some other remote and secret base. 

The final possibility is the most fantastic and thus most unlikely. But we shouldn't discount it either. It's possible that these are UAP's, not drones. Certainly there have been enough unknown encounters out there that it's possible that this is one as well. I tend to disregard it in this situation as the UAP videos that have been released show a lot more impressive capabilities than these drones have and they do not seem to be technology beyond what is available on Earth. But it's not outside the realm of possibility that these are indeed UAP's. 

Regardless, the response to this has been pretty abysmal. We shouldn't allow these drones to be operated over our territory as allowing it shows weakness. It wouldn't be too difficult to destroy one of these drones and recover the wreckage. Not only would that send a clear message to whoever is operating these drones, it would also solve the mystery. It's only for the weakness of our current government that this hasn't happened already. 

Israel launches major airstrikes against Syria and has occupied part of the country.

 

Israeli tanks near the Golan Heights. AP.

Israel has launched major airstrikes at military targets in Syria after the fall of Basha al-Assad and has occupied parts of the country. AP. Israel said they are creating a "buffer zone" between Syria and Israel. They have also launched hundreds of air strikes, destroying military stockpiles, anti-air weapons, airfields and military factories. They have also completely destroyed Syria's Navy. Israel's advances into Syria have caused concern as they are only 25 miles from the capital of Damascus itself. The new transitional government of Syria, led by the former al-Qaeda affiliate HTS, formally known as al-Nusra, has not commented on the attacks and occupation. 

My Comment:

Israel's goals here appear similar to Russia's goals in Ukraine. They are determined that Syria will never be a threat to them again and working to demilitarize the entire country. Israel appears to be attempting to destroy Syria's ability to launch a war against them and they are taking territory, which they will probably not ever give back, so that they have an even larger buffer zone between them and Syria. 

This is not a surprise at all. Israel has long launched strikes in Syria and the Golan Heights is former Syrian territory. This was always going to happen and I doubt Syria will be the only one to do so. Both Turkey and the United States have de facto power over large swaths of Syrian territory and I am guessing that both will also expand their actions in Syria in their own interests. In our case it will be controlling the economy of Syria while targeting ISIS while Turkey will be targeting the Kurds. 

What is surprising is how HTS isn't doing a thing about it. Not that there is much they can do, they do not really have control over the Syrian military and their anti-air defenses were in shambles even before HTS took over. But you would think they would at least make a formal protest or maybe send some troops to at least keep an eye on the Israeli units in their territory. 

Instead, as far as I can tell, they have done less than nothing. That is going to raise concerns to conspiracy minded people that may think that Israel may have had something to do with the success of the Jihadis. I don't know if I would go that far but it is clear that neither side is really trying to pick a fight with each other. 

Israel is probably the biggest winner after Turkey in the collapse of the Assad regime. Syria was semi-hostile to Israel and was allies with both Iran and Hezbollah, but now they are gone. Hezbollah will now lose their land supply route through Syria which is hugely damaging to them and a big win for Israel. It's also a major loss of face for Iran as well. 

But I think it may very well backfire on them. HTS are obvious extremists and after they are done consolidating power they will likely revert to their terrorist ways. And ISIS too has a chance of regrouping in the country as well. If either side wants to they should be able to threaten Israel with state level resources, despite the fact that their country has now been largely demilitarized. They have a religious state next to them that calls for their destruction, and who could be a much more immediate threat than Iran ever was...

Daniel Penny found not guilty for the death of Jordan Neely.

 

Daniel Penny in court. New York Post. 

Daniel Penny was found not guilty in the death of Jordan Neely, a homeless man who was threatening people on the subway in New York. New York Post. Prosecutors had dropped manslaughter charges against Neely during deliberations but Penny was acquitted on the less serious charge of negligent homicide. During the trial the defense portrayed Penny as a hero that was protecting his fellow subway passengers and argued that the death of Neely was due to drugs, genetic problems and over-exertion, not the "chokehold" that Penny placed him in. Prosecutors argued that Penny went beyond self defense during the "chokehold". Many people believe that the charges were politically motivated. 

My Comment:

It was beyond absurd that this case was charged in the first place Daniel Penny did nothing wrong and Jordan Neely was acting like a menace. Once Neely threatened to kill the other people on that subway car, Penny was more than justified to take him down until police arrived. 

And I am not entirely convinced that he caused Neely's death in the first place. Neely was on drugs and had some medical problems and could have easily died from over exertion. I am guessing being placed in a restraint didn't help things, but ultimately his death wasn't predictable. I am guessing that a healthy person put into the same hold would have been, if not fine, still alive. 

Penny did what people are supposed to do when someone acts like a threat. The message this case sent is that folks should do nothing when a man goes nuts and threatens to kill folks. And if he had done nothing than perhaps someone else would be dead. Would he have been charged if he had stopped someone after Neely attacked someone, which he was known to do?

I think he would have been. Because this wasn't a case brought because Penny did the wrong thing. It was brought because he was a white male. If the races had been reversed would it have been charged? Absolutely not. But because a white guy killed a black criminal it's a huge deal. It's racism, plain and simple. 

Of course if Neely had been in jail or prison like he belonged then he would likely still be alive. New York is famous for having a revolving door criminal justice system. Neely had a 43 arrest record and at least some of those case involved violence. He's exactly the kind of person that should have never been in public in the first place, he had already proven that he couldn't handle it. It didn't help that he was on drugs and was mentally ill as well. 

I will never understand why folks sympathize with people like Neely. Sure, I guess there is some tragedy involved, a sane country would have done something to prevent his actions long before he got onto that subway. But I just can't feel bad when someone like that dies. Had Penny gone above the bounds of self defense, then sure punish him, but that's not what happened in this case. But even then I wouldn't feel bad for him, he was a menace and he died because of his own actions. 

Hopefully there won't be any repercussions for this case. Already the usual suspects are making trouble, several Democratic politicians saying some incredibly irresponsible things and there is the threat of Black Lives Matter trying to make this a thing. But I doubt we will see the 2020 summer of love. Folks are absolutely sick and tired of both the street crime and the folks that try to exploit it for political reasons. At least I hope they have. 

Biden inexplicably offers aid to Syria despite it being taken over by former al-Qaeda affilate HTS

 

Joe Biden. CNBC/Reuters.

Joe Biden has said he will support and send aid to Syria and other Middle East countries after the fall of the Assad regime. CNBC. Biden vowed to help all Syrian groups to establish a new government, but warned that he would be watching the behavior of some of the groups involved in the fall of Assad. Humanitarian aid will also be sent, though it is not clear how much or what type. Biden also vowed to continue the fight against ISIS, which was having a resurgence even before the government fell. He also ordered a series of air strikes against ISIS targets in Syria. 

🚨 BREAKING: President Biden announces U.S. involvement in Syria rebellion, wants to directly help the people "seize" on the new opportunity by establishing a new regime.

Biden also hinted at sending aid to Syria.

"Our approach has shifted the balance of power in the Middle… pic.twitter.com/CT0HQAVeJj

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) December 8, 2024

My Comment:

It's things like this that radicalized me. Sending aid to Syria after it was taken over by Jihadists? It's insane. We shouldn't be sending any money or aid at all to a government that will likely be led by HTS, which, as I keep pointing out, used to be an al-Qaeda affiliate and was al-Nusra, the 2nd worst terror group in Syria.  

Indeed, we have little interest in Syria other than preventing those folks from taking power in the first place. We have failed at that, we didn't do a thing to save the Syrian government and did everything in our power to actually ensure that it fell. Sending money to the folks that are by all accounts really bad people is a horrible idea. 

I don't trust Biden's words that he will be watching the HTS group. Biden's both a lame duck president and an empty suit. I also don't think he has all that much in the way of a problem with Syria being ruled by radical Sunni Muslim terrorists. He doesn't care at all about the various religious minorities that are at risk, like the Shite Muslims, Alawites, Christians, Druze and so on. 

Keep in mind that Biden is going to send money to Syria while the folks in North Carolina are still suffering from the effects of Hurricane Helene. We don't know how much money is going to be sent to Syria yet but every single cent would be better spent helping folks in America. The fact that the money is going to be given to folks that not only hate us, but stand a good chance of turning the country into a hub for terrorists is just a slap in the face.

The only good news is that Biden at least recognizes that ISIS is going to be a huge threat in Syria and is bombing them. The hope is that by doing so they won't be able to take a bunch of territory in the wake of the regime falling. But the problem is that they are already doing so and a few air strike aren't going to be enough. And we don't know how HTS and ISIS will interact, they have been historical enemies, but I think HTS will be too busy with trying to build a country to actually do anything about them. 

It's over. Bashar al-Assad flees Syria after jihadist rebels take Damascus.

 

Syrians in Damascus celebrate the fall of the Assad Regime. AP. 

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has fled the country after a shocking offensive came to the capital of Damascus. AP. Led by the former al-Qaeda affiliate Hayat Tahir al-Sham (HTS), formerly al-Nusra, the 10 day offensive showed stunting success for the rebels and little resistance from the Syrian military. 10 days ago the offensive started and the cities of Aleppo, Hama and Homs all fell before the rebels entered Damascus itself. Assad is said to have fled the country to an undisclosed location. The country's Prime Minster, Mohammed Ghazi Jalali, said that he was ready to turn over the government to the rebels on a provisional basis and asked that Syrians not destroy government property. The defeat is a blow to the allies of Syria in the region, including Iran and Russia. Both countries and their proxies had bigger problems on their plate and were unable too offer much help to Assad as the rebels stormed the country. It is unclear what will happen to Syria or President Assad, though President Elect Donald Trump voiced skepticism of further involvement in Syria and called for peace in the Ukraine conflict. 

My Comment:

It's been an absolutely absurd 10 days in Syria. To think that most folks considered the war to be essentially over with the Syrian government and the remaining rebels in an essential state of peace. But it only took 10 days for HTS and their allies to take the Syrian Government. It's a very impressive accomplishment to be sure. But is it a good thing?

To be sure, Bashar al-Assad is not a nice man. Though I tend to think his worst crimes are either exaggerated or even made up out of whole cloth, he is still a pretty brutal dictator and he ruled with an iron fist. There is no questions that even before the war there was a reason why folks opposed him. And he didn't exactly use kid gloves on the rebels during the war.

But the folks that just took Syria? They are worse. Way worse. HTS has tried to rebrand themselves as a more secular group that is paying lip service to respecting Syria's many minorities, but they are literally al-Qaeda. Sure, they cut ties, but they remain al-Nusra front. If it hadn't been for ISIS they would have been the most brutal and horrible faction in Syria. And now they have control of much of the country. This does not bode well even if they turn out to not be as bad as ISIS was. At best they will be a new Taliban, a major regional problem, but hopefully not a international one. 

So why did the government fall? I am thinking the soldiers just lost the will to fight. They were so shocked by the Aleppo offensive that they were never able to recover. The panic spread not just to the regular soldiers but to the officers and generals as well. Had they made even a single stand at Aleppo, Hama or even Homs, things might have gone differently, but they didn't and that was all she wrote. 

Part of it must have been that they knew that nobody was coming to save them at this point. In the past they had help from thousands of Hezbollah fighters, Russian soldiers, Iran backed militias and even on occasions during their fights with ISIS, support from Turkey and the United States. But with Hezbollah decapitated in their war with Israel and Russia distracted with their war in Ukraine, they couldn't count on help getting their in time, and it absolutely did not. 

We shouldn't expect this to be the end of the war. The regime has fallen but Syria is still a mess of competing factions, ethnicities, religions and foreign influence. Indeed, this could end up being a new, even bloodier phase of the war as the fighting will come to areas that were formally peaceful, like the coast. 

It's even possible that the country of Syria could no longer exist with it breaking into separate states. Perhaps one for the Alawites on the coast, one of the rebels in the center, one for the Kurds in the North and whatever the hell is going to be the territory we have control of with 900 American soldiers stationed in Syria. It's simply too soon to tell at this point. 

I also expect other countries to take some of Syria's territory. Supposedly Israel made a move already, but I fully expect that Turkey will make a move against the Kurds. They hate the Kurds and there are Kurdish terror groups active in the North of Syria. There simply isn't anything left to protect the Kurds as there isn't really a sovereign state at the moment. I would be shocked if Turkey doesn't send some major forces in to Syria to take territory, de facto like they already have, or de jure. 

What does America get out of this mess? Nothing but headaches, though at least we won't be the ones dealing with the refugee crisis this will cause, though perhaps some will also head home. Like I said, we have 900 troops chilling out in the desert looking out for ISIS, which are also making a comeback now. Do we keep them there to counter ISIS? Are they even safe with HTS now apparently being in charge? Can we even pull them out safely? All questions to be asked in the coming days and weeks. 

My one hope is that we can somehow avoid the trap we have fallen into with regime change in Islamic countries. The government of Iraq was taken out and we were stuck there for years and then ISIS came and made war on the world. Libya was no better, and the less said about Afghanistan the better. My real fear is that both HTS and ISIS will end up being global terror threats and we will be drawn into yet another pointless war in the Middle East, as if there hasn't been enough of those already. Maybe I am wrong and things will somehow work out this time, but I don't think so. The folks celebrating the fall of Assad are fools...    

Assad regime reeling after Jihadist rebels take Hama, another major city.

 

A Syrian rebel covers his ears while an MLRS fires near Hama. Fox News/AFP.

The regime of Bashar al-Assad is reeling after jihadist rebels have taken the strategic city of Hama just days after the fall of Aleppo. Fox News. The shocking advance, led by the Jihadist group Hayat Tahir al-Sham (formally al-Nusra), has caught many people off guard and is one of the most significant of the long simmer civil war. HTS has captured large stockpiles of weapons and even aircraft from the regime and there are fears that they may have even captured stockpiles of chemical weapons. There is also a fear that the chaos could be exploited by the other major terror group in the region, ISIS, which has managed to take some territory in the desert near Homs and Deir ez Zor. So far the United States has remained neutral in the fight, with the 900 or so troops in Syria not participating in the battle. But Russia and Iraq-based and Iranian backed militias are helping the Syrian regime. 

My Comment:

I will admit that I wasn't paying close attention to the situation in Syria and that was a mistake given how quickly things have advanced. Just a few days ago the regime was in a very secure situation and there was very little threat. Now, Syria has lost one of their biggest cities, Aleppo, and now they have lost Hama too, without much of a fight. 

How did this happen? Supposedly HTS has been planning this attack for four years now so they were well prepared and have found good weapons. But the Syrian regime? I am guessing they were resting on their laurels. They were very obviously not prepared for the size of this success and have not put up much of a fight here. 

And failure compounds. The shocking loss of Aleppo made the regime forces even less motivated to fight. Losing Hama will hurt morale even worse. There is a real possibility that the regime military breaks entirely and collapses, which will through the entire country into chaos and could even cost the regime the war. The only major city between Hama and Damascus itself is Homs, and supposedly the HTS rebels are getting closer to Homs as I write this. 

There is also the possibility that HTS will be able to cut a large portion of the country off. If they continue south they could cut off the Tartus and Latakia governates. This would cut off the rest of Syria from the sea and make it dramatically more different to supply the rest of the country. 

Though it's very possible that the Syrian regime could collapse, I do think it's very possible they turn things around. My gut says that HTS has overextended themselves and such an advance isn't really sustainable. Syria's allies are going to be able to join the fight the longer time passes and it will restore some of the advantages Syria had during the rest of the war. 

The problem is that both of Syria's major allies, Russia and Iran, have their own problems. Russia does has forces to spare, but the Ukraine conflict is obviously a huge drain on resources. And Iran's proxies have faced major setbacks in their war with Israel. Hezbollah is in a very bad position with much of their leadership dead. The only force that I can say has nothing else going on are the Iraq based and Iran backed militias, which will at least give the Syrians some bodies to try and stem the tide.

Of course Syria is the war where everyone shows up so there are other countries that will have a say in what happens in Syria as well. The United States is supposedly neutral but I would say they are more sympathetic to the Jihadists, though their real concern is both ISIS and Russia. Israel's main concern is of course any Hezbollah or Iran backed militias which means they are de facto allied with HTS, even though there is no love lost there either. 

Turkey is the true wildcard and I wouldn't be surprised if this offensive is at least partially their doing. Chaos in Syria works in their advantage as they want the regime weakened or destroyed so they can go after the Kurds in the north. They are still concerned with Kurdish terror groups and want a free hand to destroy them. Or, more cynically, they just hate Kurds period. 

ISIS is another major player and they aren't allied to anyone. But they are using the chaos to take some territory again and that does not bode well. When ISIS had control of major parts of Syria they were able to use the taxes they made to fund attacks across the world. It's very possible if the HTS offensive continues to be effective that they could try and take over a major city. And if that happens? Nothing good happens. 

With all that being said it's pretty obvious what happens next. Either the regime finds its backbone and makes a stand on Homs, or it doesn't and the war comes to Damascus in the next month. If it does I expect the regime to begin a grinding offensive to take back what is lost. If it doesn't, then the whole country will fall into chaos we haven't seen in a long time in Syria... 

United Healthcare CEO Brian Thompson killed in assassination in New York.

 

Surveillance photos of the assassin. AP. 

The CEO of United Healthcare, Brian Thompson, was assassinated by a gunman in New York City in a crime that has shocked the nation. AP. United Healthcare provides health insurance for 49 million Americans. Thompson generally kept a low profile but had a few moments of note, including an attempt to switch doctors to prevent illness instead of just treating it and a controversy about not covering certain emergency room visits. He was in New York for a meeting and lived in Minnesota. The gun man approached Thompson and shot him in the back. The suspect is still at large and the motive is unknown. 

My Comment:

There are two things that make this crime notable. The first is that the victim was a CEO at a huge health care company and that was always going to make it political. The murder may have absolutely nothing to do with that, we have no clue about the motive, but it's pretty rare that CEO millionaires get shot in the back on a city street in New York. 

But what is really getting people to talk about this is the fact that this looks like a professional, or at least well planned amateur, hit. The assassin used a suppressor and hid his face, making him hard to identify. And so far he has gotten away with it... 

⚠️ Graphic Video

United Healthcare CEO is assassinated in front of a hotel in Manhattan. pic.twitter.com/P3I0poQ4qZ

— National File (@NationalFile) December 5, 2024

So was this a professional hit? I have no idea. The video makes me question it. The first thing that happens after he fires his first shot is that his gun jams. And he takes a lot of time to recharge the pistol. Folks are speculating that this is because he used subsonic ammo, which is a lot quieter, but often causes issues with the pistol cycling. Regardless, I think a professional would have had his gun cleared a lot quicker than that. 

I also think that professional would not have shot someone right in front of a witness and would have been more likely to use a revolver instead of a suppressed pistol so he wouldn't leave a shell casing behind. 

Though I also don't think there are actually that many professional assassins out there. There are very few hitmen out there and the ones that are tend to be low level street thugs. There probably a few real ones out there but who would hire them to kill this CEO? 

Still, this does seem like someone that was very bound and determined to kill Brian Thompson. You don't buy a suppressed pistol for anything other than a planned attack. It is possible that this was a random crime, but that would be very surprising as you would think that the witness seen in the video would have been shot too, though perhaps the jammed weapon prevented that? Either way, this wasn't a spur of the moment attack. If Thompson was the target it would have required quite a bit of intelligence to pull off, how did the assassin know he was going to be there? 

So what could the motive possibly be? It's totally unclear at this point. Thompson was a public figure but barely and I don't think he is well known enough for him to be targeted by random crazies. It could have been revenge for a perceived or real wrong he committed against someone but who knows what that could be? It could even be a state level actor. Without more information everything is speculation.

What I do know is that every CEO in the country is probably considering private security. Thompson didn't have any though I don't know what a bodyguard or two would have been able to do in this case. But it does show that even the head of huge healthcare company can be assassinated fairly easily.