Tuesday, December 3, 2024

South Korea's President briefly declares martial law...

 

Police guard the entrance to the National Assembly. BBC/Reuters. 

South Korea's President Yoon Suk-yeol declared martial law in an early morning address before being overruled by Parliament. BBC. Yoon mentioned threats from North Korea and communists but it was clear that it was more due to his own domestic issues with his opposition party. The declaration was not popular with even members of his own party opposing the measure. Despite the presence of police and military, the opposition party was able to get into Parliament and vote down the measure, which President Yoon respected. Martial law has not been declared for 50 years. Yoon has been unpopular due to being a lame duck president and having several corruption scandals involving his wife. It is unclear what will happen next but Yoon is likely to be impeached. 

My Comment: 

Fairly shocking development out of South Korea. I had no idea that they could have what was essentially a failed coup. And have no doubt, this was a coup. There was no real reason for Yoon to call for martial law and whatever he was trying to do here has failed pretty miserably. 

North Korea had very little to do with this. Yoon is a lame duck and is extremely unpopular and has had several scandals. His party lost in a landslide during the last election which shows his people are tired of him. And he is very limited in what he can do. He was probably going to be impeached before this happened. And he absolutely is going to be now.  

This was probably a coup but it was a very poorly planned one. He should have made sure that the military was on board to actually do something against the members of parliament couldn't actually vote. Had he done so he could have shut the country down, but he did not and now he's probably going to be impeached and even imprisoned. 

Would the country be better off if he had succeeded? I am not sure. Yoon is on the right and the political left in South Korea is especially loony. They are very far to the left by Asian standards and I don't think they are good people. But that being said, there was nothing they were doing that justified a coup. And that would have meant that any regime that Yoon had come up with would have been considered illegitimate by almost everyone. 

I tend to see South Korea as being dysfunctional. This is not the first major scandal the country has had recently. There was the incident in 2016 with their first female president, Park Geun-hye, who was dominated by an actual cult. That incident brought down their government and caused a huge embarrassment for the country. 

And South Korea has some of the worst gender relations in the world and a horrible birthrate. South Korean men and women hate each other and that's not an exaggeration. Many women there are full of misandry and can't stand South Korean men and the feeling is more than mutual, many South Korean men see South Korean women as nothing more than feminist weirdos. Remember the 4b movement, where women in America were going to boycott sex? South Korea is where it came from, and unlike the folks here, they were actually serious about it. Both sides of the debate there deserve a lot of criticism, the level of hatred they have for each other about biological sex is almost beyond parody.

All of this added with the coup attempt appears to show that the country is not at all stable. Indeed, it's probably less stable than North Korea, there is no question who is in charge there. But in South Korea things are different. Though this situation is likely to be resolved peacefully, who knows what will happen next time? It's not a good sign for one of our largest trading partners and major ally in Asia... 

Monday, December 2, 2024

Biden administration sends another $725 million worth of weapons to Ukraine.

 

An Ukrainian serviceman mans an anti-drone system. Fox News/Getty.

The Biden Administration is sending another $725 million worth of weapons to Ukraine before the Trump Administration takes over. Fox News. The weapons will include anti-tank weapons, artillery, drones, HMARS rockets, and land mines, to be used the Kursk incursion. Trump has been skeptical of funding the war and vowed to end it, perhaps even before he enters office. Trump's VP had suggested Ukraine trade land to Russia in exchange for a DMZ, a proposal that Zelensky rejected. Ukraine has been attempting to join NATO in their own effort to end the war, an effort that is unlikely to succeed. 

My Comment:

Hopefully this is the last shipment of weapons that Biden is able to send. He is running out of time, he's got less than two months to continue his Ukraine policy before Trump takes over. But Biden seems determined to continue the war in Ukraine, a war that has already been lost. 

Most of these weapons are not really going to have much of an effect. Russia will continue to have their advantage in artillery and weapons like the HMARS system have not proven effective. That isn't to say that the Ukrainians don't need these weapons, their stocks are absolutely low. But nothing we are sending in this package will actually change the real problems with the Ukrainian military. 

Ukraine's biggest problem is they are running out of men. They have, so far, not drafted young men for demographic reasons. There simply isn't many young men in the country, they had a big fertility drop about 20 years ago, which means that generation of men is small. 

But they are also running out of the older men that have  born the brunt of this conflict. The average age of the soldiers in Ukraine is absurdly old, around 40, and that is probably getting worse, not better. Ukraine has been taking huge casualties and now many soldiers are deserting. A few new weapons won't fix these problems. 

What is surprising is the inclusion of land mines in this package. The left has long been against land mines, largely because they can cause injuries and death long after the war is over. But that is apparently not a problem anymore. Of course there are already probably millions of land mines being used by both sides in the war so adding a few more won't do much. But it's odd that the left isn't more upset by this. It's just another example of the left abandoning things they believe when it is politically expedient to do so. 

As for Ukraine itself, it's unclear what will happen there long term. Nobody really knows what Trump is going to do. But I don't think it's going to be the continuation of Biden's policy. Trump wants the war to end, and failing that, he wants America to stop spending money there. I think Trump views the Ukraine conflict a distraction from the domestic policy he wants to put into place. He is going to try and cut a deal between Ukraine and Russia and if Ukraine won't play ball he will cut them off. I do wonder what happens if Russia is the one that decides to be obstinate. Russia has little reason to end the war at this point and they are probably not going to agree to any deal that can be undone after Trump is out of office. 

Regardless though, the status quo won't remain. This will likely be the least weapons that Ukraine can expect from the United States anytime soon. They will still get weapons from other NATO countries but that's about it, unless Trump makes some kind of bizarre policy reversal. 

Finally, I do worry that Joe Biden will continue to do stupid things to try and sabotage the Trump administration. The use of long range missiles directly controlled by US satellites was an act of war against Russia and I worry that he will do something even worse. January 20th can't come soon enough. 

Sunday, December 1, 2024

Joe Biden pardons his son Hunter Biden for gun and tax crimes, breaking promise to not do so.

 

File photo of Joe and Hunter Biden. AP.

Joe Biden has pardoned his son Hunter Biden for gun and tax crimes, breaking his promise to not do so. AP. The pardon follows the younger Biden's conviction for lying on a federal background check for firearms, (form 4473) and a surprise plea deal for his tax crime charges for not reporting $1.4 million in income. Biden had said he would respect the jury's decision in the gun case but has now pardoned his son, despite claims as recent as last month saying he would not do so. In addition to the two convictions, the pardon covers any and all federal crimes committed by Hunter Biden between the years of 2014 and 2024. Biden said in the announcement that he felt that prosecution of his son was politically motivated. Hunter had pled guilty to both crimes but there was outrage after the gun charges would have been dropped under the terms of the "sweetheart" deal. 


My Comment:

This was obviously expected and the only way Joe Biden wasn't going to pardon his son is if he had a deal in place to have Donald Trump pardon him instead. That was a longshot but it was something that was considered.  Ultimately, it didn't happen because Biden did it before Trump even had the chance to do so. 

I am guessing that the sticking point for any such deal, if it was even discussed, was the scope of the pardon. Trump was likely to only pardon Hunter for the two crimes he was convicted of, the gun charge and the tax case. Biden's pardon was of a much larger scope and would cover any corruption Hunter Biden had during his Ukraine adventures. This pardon will pretty much cancel any attempt to punish Hunter Biden for his Ukraine corruption before they could even get started. 

Biden complained that the charges against Hunter were politically motivated and it's not the craziest thing he's ever said. Folks rarely get charged for lying on form 4473 and the tax charges would have been plead down. The charges were kind of unprecedented. 

But I also think that the charges were justified due to the fact that the "sweetheart deal" that was offered to Hunter Biden was also politically motivated. Hunter Biden would not have gotten that deal if it wasn't for who his father was, and it fell apart because there was real outrage that Biden was going to skate on charges that most folks would not have. 

People were also outraged that Hunter Biden had committed a gun crime while his father supported gun control. Sure, I personally have a lot of problems with the charge that Hunter Biden caught, form 4073 shouldn't exist and being a drug user shouldn't hurt your gun rights unless you are convicted. But for an anti-gun president to pardon a gun criminal? It's not a good look. 

Still, this was always going to happen. Everyone knew that Joe Biden was lying though his teeth when he said that he wouldn't pardon Hunter Biden. Indeed, it would have been shocking if he hadn't. Biden is many things, most of them are bad, but one of his rare virtues is his love for his family and there was no way he was going to send his only remaining son to prison. It was always a lie but at least it's an understandable one. Biden should and will be criticized for lying about this, but I can't really fault him for the pardon, it's what presidents do, and even I have to admit that his love for Hunter Biden, wastrel that he is, is genuine. 

Finally, there was some hope in the gun rights community that Hunter Biden would appeal his gun conviction. After NYSRPA v Bruen, form 4473 was on the bubble. There would have been a real chance of the law being overturned due to failing the standard set by Bruen. That was always probably a pipe dream, but that dream is dead for sure now...