Russia claims they have taken the city of Lysychansk, thus securing all of Luhansk, a major war goal.

 

A destroyed building in Ukraine. Reuters.

Russia has claimed that they have taken the city of Lysychansk, which means that they will have taken all of Luhansk, which is a major war goal. Reuters. Ukraine did not make a comment on the claim. Russia switched tactics from their attack on the capital of Kiev. They have now focused on taking the Donbass area and have had major success is there. The fall of Lysychansk comes after the capture of Severodontsk, which is the twin city of Lycyhansk. 

My Comment:

This is fairly huge news and a major victory for Russian forces in Ukraine. The capture of Lysychansk means that all of Luhansk is under Russia's control. This was almost certainly one of their major war goals and it is now accomplished. 

How reliable are Russian reports on this? Probably not very but given that Ukraine hasn't said a thing about it so far makes me think that it's probably real. If Russia wasn't in control of the city, wouldn't Ukraine try and discredit them by proving that they were lying? I haven't seen anything like that so I assume that Russia does in fact have control of most or all of the city. 

This is a major defeat for Ukraine and will probably further demoralize their troops. Ukraine lost a huge amount of their best troops in both Lysychansk and Severodonstk and are mostly using conscripts and reservists as fighters now. This is a huge problem for Ukraine as they are running out of troops. 

I do wonder if this was a rout or retreat by the Ukrainians. I had heard that Ukraines' military had wanted to retreat from Luhansk for obvious reasons but had been overruled by President Zelenkskyy's civilian advisors. If the Ukrainians were smart they would have retreated but I don't know if that is what happened or not. It's possible that they weren't even able to retreat. 

With Luhansk under Russian control the question should be asked how much longer will this war go on? Russia probably wants all of Dontsk as well and that will probably be their next target. If they capture that I don't know how much else they want to take. They would have taken the most economically important areas and the areas with the most Russian speakers. 

Of course another of Russia's war goals was to cripple the Ukrainian military. I think they are close in terms of personal and equipment but Ukraine has yet to collapse. They don't have that much left though and I would not be surprised if the army collapses soon. 

Still, I think it is long past time for the Russians and Ukrainians to come together at the negotiation table.  It's pretty clear that neither Russia or Ukraine can utterly destroy the other side. Russia has most of what they want now and probably could get everything else they need with negotiation. I know that's not what the United States and Europe but I think that is the best thing that could happen.