Fact Check: No, Bill Gates has not been arrested in Germany

 

This is going to be a bit of a short, different post, but I found the situation amusing. On Twitter this evening I saw a few people sharing this article claiming that Bill Gates has been arrested in Germany and is facing the death penalty. Given the fact that this news was not trending on Twitter despite that it would be the biggest story of the year by far, I was immediately skeptical. 

A simple google search brought me to the about us page of the outlet that broke the "story". Though it's not obvious at all from the regular website, the about us page clearly states that the Vancouver Times is a satire site. In short, the story did not happen and is not real in anyway, even though many of us wish it was true. 

Hilariously, a troll account tried to argue with me about it on Twitter. 

Lies. CNN is satire. Vancouver Times is real news.

Bill Gates is in jail. @INTERPOL_HQ confirmed it with me! https://t.co/eEwU1TnEdu

— Mary Talley Bowden - @MdBreathe (@bowden_talley) August 1, 2022

Given by some of the other tweets by this account, I am not sure if they are a troll, a false flag account, or an actual nutjob, but either way, I am not taking them seriously.

 

Jesus came to me last night, and told me himself that Justin Trudeau and Klaus Schwab will be in jail soon. He also confirmed, with his all-seeing power, that Tedros and Gates WILL face the DEATH PENALTY for their crimes.

— Mary Talley Bowden - @MdBreathe (@bowden_talley) August 1, 2022

So why write this up? I generally dislike websites like this that don't admit that they are satire, and the folks that promote them. Not only do they mislead the extremely gullible, they allow the mainstream media to portray all non-mainstream news sources as obvious disinformation. The more people know about obvious fake outlets like the Vancouver Times, the better.  

US Economy enters recession after two straight quarters of economic stagnation, Democrats try to change definition of recession

 

Joe Biden. Fox Business/AFP/Getty.

The US Economy has entered recession after two straight quarters of economic stagnation. Fox Business. Gross domestic product shrunk by 0.9%, falling far short of the 0.5% growth economists expected in the 2nd quarter of 2022. This is after the economy shrunk by 1.6% in the 1st quarter of 2022, which was the worst since the 2020 pandemic. However, Democrats are arguing that due to high employment and consumer spending a recession has not arrived yet. The downturn is the result of extreme inflation and high energy prices, which has eroded spending power. 

My Comment:

The Democrats are famously trying to downplay this news, claiming that the definition of recession isn't just two quarters of economic retraction. Nope, now it needs to include bad employment numbers. That's just gaslighting and if Donald Trump was president right now, which he should be, you know they would be calling this a recession. 

As far as I am concerned we are pretty obviously in a recession. If there are two quarters of economic failure than that's a recession, end of discussion. And it's very obvious that the economy is not doing well. Inflation is totally out of control and so are energy prices and there is no indication that either of those things are going to change soon. 

I also think that the high employment rate is noise. The economy fundamentally changed after the 2020 pandemic. The virus forced a lot of people out of work and a lot of those people found out that they could make it without returning to the workforce. Indeed, the workface participation rate is at 62.2%, which never recovered from the pre-pandemic rate of 63.4%. A lot of those people are still not looking for jobs as they are either stay at home parents or are working off the books. 

I also have to point out it's idiotic to claim that the unemployment rate is a good thing when the country is still in a labor shortage. Of course the unemployment rate is low, there are still a ton of jobs that are unfilled! I haven't seen the numbers for the 2nd quarter of 2022 but in the 1st quarter there were 11.5 million job vacancies! Of course the employment rate is good! 

The economy is in dire straits and I don't see anything changing soon. Congress is still passing huge spending bills that aren't paid by taxes but paid by printing new money, which obviously contributes to inflation. Energy prices will remain high until we either lift sanctions against Russia or start drilling again, and Biden is going to ensure that we don't do either. 

So why are the Democrats so desperate to avoid the dreaded R word? Well they don't want to point out that stagflation is happening. We are dealing with economic retraction and inflation at the same time. You know who was the last President who had to deal with that? Jimmy Carter. And what did his presidency lead to? Three consecutive terms of Republican presidents (which would have been five if not for Ross Perot). This bad economic news is terrible for Joe Biden and it's little wonder he and the Democrats are trying to play mind games with the definition of words. 

IMF admits that sanctions against Russia are not working as Russia's economy remains strong.

 

IMF Chief Economist  Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas. AFP.

The IMF is admitting that the sanctions put into place against Russia for their invasion of Ukraine are not working. AFP. The sanctions were supposed to cripple Russia's economy but the IMF has upgraded Russia's GDP by a remarkable 2.5%. The IMF still says the economy in Russia is in recession, but Russia was able to stave off worse damage to due high energy prices and by preventing a bank panic. The bulk of the damage done by sanctions have fallen on Europe due to being massively reliant on Russian energy. However, the IMF still predicts Russia's economy to do worse next year.

My Comment:

It's amazing to see anyone from the IMF admit this. Russia has survived sanctions against them and seem to be thriving, at least in comparison to other countries. Russia is in a recession but so is everyone else as the global economy slows down. 

So why is this working out better for Russia? There are a lot of factors, the biggest is that they were already under sanctions before the war in Ukraine. They had plenty of time to adjust their economy to better deal with sanctions, so when new ones fell into place they weren't in a bad situation. 

Another reason is that much of the world is simply ignoring these sanctions. Outside of the United States and our close allies, nobody seems to care that much about the invasion of Ukraine. China, the worlds biggest economy is helping out Russia and almost all of the developing world has no reason to go along with sanctions. 

A major factor is the self defeating nature of the sanctions. Many European countries put sanctions on Russian natural gas and oil and all that accomplished, other than impoverishing those countries, is to dramatically increase the price of energy. Since Russia is one of the largest energy exporters in the world, they have been making money hand over fist.

Energy sanctions have also given Russia a huge amount of leverage over European countries that are almost totally dependent on Russian natural gas. And they are using that weapon effectively. They have cut off much of the supplies to Germany for example and it could lead to the German government falling if they can't find a solution to the problem. 

And I have always thought that the west has underestimated Russia's economy. There is an impressive amount of graft but they never remember that Russians are a fairly industrious people and that here is a major underground economy. Plus they have huge energy reserves and good relations with most of their non-European neighbors. 

It's not all good for Russia though. Their economy is facing the world economic slowdown that is putting everyone in recession. And they have been hurt by being cut off from more advanced Western technologies that they can't source form China or India. And the war itself has to be ruinously expensive due to the huge amount of ammo and vehicles they are going through. 

But with that being said, it's clear that Russia is in a dramatically better situation than the west expected. The Russian economy isn't going to collapse, at least not any sooner than anyone else. They seem to be weathering the storm very well and it's a lot more likely to end up outlasting the sanctions than the European countries that put them into place.  

Eric "Nukem" Swalwell tries to start twitter trend #GasPricesAreSoLow, in a perfect example of how out of touch Democrats are.

 

Eric Swalwell congressional photo. 

Gas prices are so low Ted Cruz cancelled his flight and drove to Cancun.

Post your best #GasPricesAreSoLow

— Rep. Eric Swalwell (@RepSwalwell) July 26, 2022

I'm going to ignore the normal format here since this post is going to be all commentary. The above tweet? It got me furious, to the point I had to write up a blog post. Representative Eric Swalwell, most noted for his tweet about how the government should nuke gun owners, has put his foot in his mouth yet again, this time trying to start a trend on Twitter with the #GasPricesAreSoLo hashtag. 

Gas prices have declined from their high back in June where regular unleaded was just over $5 a gallon nationally. Today, they are at $4.327, according to AAA. Of course in California, where Eric Swalwell was inexpiably elected, gas prices are at $5.70. 

There are a few reasons why gas prices have dropped lately. Biden and the Democrats are trying to take credit for it, but the only thing they have done that has helped at all is releasing oil from the emergency reserves. That option is going to end soon as we are eventually going to run out. 

The other main factors that I am aware of is the fact that China went back into coronavirus lockdown. Some of the biggest cities in the world are back into China style lockdowns, which are dramatically more harsh than we ever had here. This has brought demand for fuel down a bit. 

The other factor is that people are simply driving less. Normally, people are driving a lot in summer but many people have decided that doing so is just too expensive. I know that I personally have been avoiding driving my SUV as much as possible and sticking with my older and more fuel efficient sedan. With many people making the same decision, some of these prices are going down. 

But it's utterly insane to argue that the prices are doing good. After looking at the average prices I realize that I am doing lucky here in Northeast Wisconsin as the last time I saw gas prices it was at $3.79. Even that lower price is dramatically more than we were paying in the pre-pandemic world. And I'm one of the lucky ones! Imagine how people in California and other high priced states feel!

And the elephant in the room is diesel prices. Diesel currently costs $5.39 a gallon. Though most people don't drive diesel powered cars, almost all of our countries trucking relies on this fuel. And it has hardly dropped at all in comparison. Keep in mind that almost all goods are transported by vehicles that rely on diesel fuel and higher costs there are passed onto the consumer. It's one of the reasons why inflation is out of control and one of the reasons why I spend $115 on groceries today compared to $75 to 80 this time last year. 

What gets me is that Swalwell doesn't seem to understand this. People are still suffering a great deal and he's making jokes about how low gas prices are. Is he completely out of touch? Is he gaslighting people? Does he simply not know how prices are anymore? I guess it doesn't matter. 

What does matter is the anger this "let them eat cake" attitude engenders. Swalwell is far from the only politician to make statements like this, most notably Pete Buttigieg made the same kind of comments saying that the more people suffer from high gas prices the better off people with electric vehicles will be. I can't speak for anyone else but these kind of statements make me furious. Maybe not to the point of taking up arms and overthrowing the government, but a lot closer than it's probably safe to admit... 

Russia turns the screws against Europe, cuts Gazprom Nordstream output to 20%.

 

Vladimir Putin. Politico/AFP/Getty.

Russia is increasing pressure against Europe by cutting Gazprom's Nordstream pipeline output to 20%. Politico. The Russia to Germany pipeline was already running at 40% capacity and these new cuts will half that to 33 cubic meters a day of natural gas. Germany and the rest of Europe is extremely dependent on natural gas and have not been able to source new supplies. Russia blames the reduction on the delayed return of a major turbine that was repaired in Canada. However, Russia could send more gas through pipelines that run through Ukraine. 

My Comment:

Russia is really ratcheting up the pressure now. Germany and the rest of Europe are going to be in serious trouble if these gas deliveries continue to drop. Winter is rapidly approaching and there is no sign that Germany and the rest of Europe will have built up their supplies by then. And that is going to cripple them. 

I don't really buy Putin's excuse that it's all that turbine's fault. Russia has other ways to deliver gas to Europe and they are not doing so. And why would they? Russia is still under major sanctions and they know that they have Europe by the throat here. The turbine is just an excuse, Russia is doing this because they want to and they know that it will hurt Europe.

I don't know what Europe is going to do about this. Russia has all the cards. Most of the solutions would be long term ones. They could have kept nuclear power or sourced their gas from some other country. But they haven't and now they have little choice but to hope that Russia is merciful. And under the current situation they have no real choice. 

The sane thing would be to lift sanctions and leave Ukraine out to dry. That could still happen, but the problem is that it would infuriate the Biden regime. Biden has already proven that he is willing to fight Russia in Ukraine down to the last Ukrainian, so why would he care if German grandmas freeze to death this winter? The governments of Europe are under extreme pressure from the United States to not make sperate peace with Russia. 

This means that there is no easy solution for European countries dependent on Russian gas. They can't get new sources but they also can't back off from Russia without infuriating the United States.  There is no easy solution. 

I think there are two ways this ends. First, the war in Ukraine could end in a peace deal, allowing Europe to end sanctions and Russia will increase production. I think that is very possible. The Ukrainian military is taking horrendous casualties and is probably close to breaking. And Zelenskyy seems to be in trouble since he is firing people left and right. I wouldn't be terribly surprised if the government and/or military collapses, leading to a victory for Russia. 

The other solution is Europe finally telling Biden off and lifting sanctions. Given how little power Biden has and how much he is despised I could see that happening. At some point Europe will have to stand up for their people, or their people will kick them out for someone that will. It's already happening as many governments in Europe have dissolved recently. 

But all of that is in the future. For right now things are going to get worse before they get better. Putin has all the cards here and things will get worse before they get better. And he has little to no reason to back off now... 

Are weapons sent to Ukraine getting bought up by criminal gangs?

 

Ukrainian fighters with an anti-tank rocket. The Daily Mail/AP.

Criminal gangs are attempting to intercept western shipments of arms to Ukraine. The Daily Mail. $7 billion worth of weapons have been sent to Ukraine, mostly from the United States and Europe, since Russia invaded. Most of those weapons are not tracked so it is unclear where they end up. A source has claimed that Eastern European gang members are entering Ukraine from Poland and paying cash for weapons. Night vision goggles and body armor are also being taken. It is unclear how many weapons have been taken. Video has been released showing the boxes with missiles come in but none of them have been verified as authentic.  

My Comment:

Given the infamous corruption found in Ukraine, I would be more surprised if weapons weren't being sold out of the country. Ukraine is a poor country and is noted for their corruption. It would be trivial for rear area soldiers to syphon off some weapons from these shipments, especially lighter arms since those are not tracked at all. 

Of course arms proliferation is always a problem when there is a war. There's a reason why ISIS was able to easily get full auto AK's during the wave of ISIS attacks in the last decade and that was the wars in Eastern Europe in the 1990's. With the Ukraine War being the biggest war on the continent since World War II the problem is going to get dramatically worse. 

Some of these weapons could be the major anti-tank and anti-air missiles that the United States and Europe have flooded into Europe. Some of these weapons require codes to fire and use but many of them do not. Plus, the Ukrainians could easily sell the codes as well. 

This has dramatic implications for the state of terrorism in Europe. Though ISIS has largely been defeated it's very possible that the group could have a resurgence. And if that happens they could get their hands on these missiles. That elevates the threats to the next level. Imagine ISIS using a stinger to shoot down a commercial airplane or them using an anti-tank rocket against police responding to a bombing or shooting. It would be horrible. 

How much evidence is there for this happening? Not much. There has been video released but that is easy to fake. And the Russians have a motivation to lie about it since it could be a reason to stop sending weapons to Ukraine. But the Ukrainians obviously have an incentive to lie if it is happening though, since they want those very same weapons. Like many things about the Ukraine war the truth is hard to determine. 

Still, I have to remain somewhat skeptical in this particular report because the Daily Mail did not reveal who or what their source is. I have always been suspicious of reports that claim they are citing anonymous sources since so often it turns out that those sources don't exist. My guess is that this is happening but one anonymous source is not proof. 

Media panics about the new Sig Sauer MCX Spear...

 

Sig Sauer rifles at the NRA annual meeting. Business Insider/Getty.

The last few days I have seen several mainstream media outlets in a tizzy about the new Sig Sauer MCX spear, like this article from Business Insider. They are breathlessly saying that the new rifle can defeat body armor and is hugely dangerous to sell to civilians. 

If you aren't aware MCX Spear is the civilian version of the US Army's new 6.8x51mm rifle, the XM5. The round is fairly powerful and somewhat unique but is it really the danger that the media is making it out to be? It's the media, of course it isn't. 

The media articles I have seen make it sound like the MCX Spear and the .277 Fury round are somehow especially dangerous because it can defeat modern body armor. First of all, the AR-15's .223 caliber (or 5.56mm depending on what it is chambered in) can easily defeat most level II vests worn by law enforcement. Those vests are only rated for handguns (and not even all high powered ones either) so the whole discussion is largely moot. To stop any rifle round you need a plate carrier. 

The articles also fail to inform readers that there are plenty of semi-auto rifles that fire rounds that are either equivalent to the .277 Fury or exceed it. .308 caliber AR-10's are common, along with dozens of other rifles chambered in the round, such as the civilian variants of the FN-SCAR-H, the HK G3 and the FN FAL, just to name three popular rifles. And there are other similar calibers, such as the 30-06 and so on. 

So if these rifles are common why aren't they used in mass shootings more? The articles I have seen have greatly downplayed the downsides of full sized rifle rounds(or nearly so in the case of the .277 Fury). The most obvious in this case is the ruinous expense of both the rifle and ammo. The MCX Spear itself costs an absurd $8000 MSRP and the ammo costs more than $2 a round. For comparison a bare bones AR-15 can be bought for between $600 and $1000 and 5.56mm costs around .50 cents a round, depending on demand and supplies. Older cartridges, like .308 are also more expensive, though not nearly as much as .277 fury, around $1 a round. There's a reason I often don't take my .30 caliber rifles to the gun range and that's why. And the rifles themselves aren't cheap. You can get a Century Arms C308 (a G3 clone) for less than $1000 but that's about it, most cost dramatically more than an AR-15.

The other problem with these rounds is that they are heavy. .277 is about the same size as .308 and you simply can't carry that much with you compared to intermediate rounds like 5.56mm and dramatically less if you stay in pistol range. Not to mention that the magazines for these full size rifle rounds are bigger and have less capacity. 

Finally, I think the media plays a major roll in how mass shooters chose their weapons. In the past mass shooters mostly used handguns for pretty obvious reasons (they are concealable). However, after a few mass shootings using AR-15's, the constant media coverage changed what people think the best weapon for killing a large number of people is. I think this process could start again with the MCX Spear directly due to these articles saying it's good for mass shootings, despite the obvious downsides of the rifle. Without that push though, I don't see people using rifles for mass shootings, despite the fact that they are moderately more powerful than an AR-15. 

As for the MCX Spear itself, I think it's mostly a meme rifle. Sure, the military is trying it but really don't see what advantage the rifle has over something chambered in .308 and the obvious disadvantage in cost and availability. It's a toy for collectors and not something most people should bother with right now. If the XM5 becomes the standard service rifle than you might want to get one, as there is something to be said about owning something in what will be one of the most common calibers out there, but that's a long ways off and may never happen to begin with. 

Finally, when it comes to the media, it always pays to be suspicious about their reporting on gun rights. They have proven themselves to either be completely ignorant about firearms or deliberately lying about them because they hate them. I am far from a firearms expert but even I was able to blow massive holes in the articles about the MCX Spear with a minimum of research. Many people though are just as ignorant as the media and they lap this stuff up. It just goes to show how badly our mainstream media serves us these days. 

House committee passes Assault Weapon ban...

 

AR-15's for sale at a Pennsylvania gun show. Fox News/AP.

The House Judiciary committee has passed bill that would ban assault weapons. Fox News. The Assault Weapons Ban 2021 (which was introduced last year) was passed on a 25-18 vote, though it is unclear if it would pass the House as several Democrats have said they would vote against it. The bill would ban most modern semi-auto rifles by name along with any that had any of the following features: 

“(I) A pistol grip.

“(II) A forward grip.

“(III) A folding, telescoping, or detachable stock, or is otherwise foldable or adjustable in a manner that operates to reduce the length, size, or any other dimension, or otherwise enhances the concealability, of the weapon.

“(IV) A grenade launcher.

“(V) A barrel shroud.

“(VI) A threaded barrel.

The ban would also cover most rifle caliber pistols and standard or large capacity magazines. Any weapons owned before the ban would be grandfathered in. 

The text of the proposed law can be found here. 

My Comment:

Talk about skewed priorities. When inflation is out of control, gas prices are spiraling and crime is rampant, this is what congress is focusing on? A gun ban that would result in a civil war if it were ever to pass? It's utter insanity. 

The good news is that I can't imagine any red state Democrat going along with this bill right before the 2022 election. Doing so would be a death sentence, metaphorically and possibly literally, for any vulnerable Democrat that is running in 2022. The Democrats are already facing a wipeout in 2022 and this would only ensure that it would happen. 

And the Senate? Forget it. I doubt any Republican senator would go for this and even then Joe Manchin and Krysten Sinema are extremely unlikely to vote for this. And I think at least a couple more extremely vulnerable Democrats would also balk at this for the same reason as the folks in the house have. 

I don't think that this bill has any chance of becoming law unless somehow a blue wave happens in 2022, which is exceedingly unlikely. Biden would probably sign it since he's a damned fool that would do whatever his handlers want him to do. But it would only happen if Democrats felt safe after the election and had more than enough votes to overcome the filibuster in the Senate (or be willing to blow it up over this issue). 

I also don't think such a law would last against the Supreme Court. The current makeup of the court is a lot more likely to say no to assault weapons bans and has even ordered lower courts to redo cases based on the new standard set under Bruen which would require a historical review of gun restrictions. It would be extremely difficult to survive judicial review in this environment. 

The problem is that I doubt the case would ever be heard because at that point we would already be in a civil war. An assault weapons ban is the red line that if crossed will likely result in insurgency, especially now when the economy is in the toilet and with the least popular president in modern history. It would be a disaster and if it actually happens it would likely end America as we know it. 

With all that being said, if you care about gun rights at all you should contact your elected officials, which you can do here. And it shouldn't just be your member of the house, it should be your Senators, local officials and the President himself. It's usually very easy to do and you should do it regardless if your elected official is a Democrat or Republican. Just do it. 

New York drops charges against Jose Alba, the bodega worker that stabbed an attacker to death.

 

New York City District Attorney Alvin Bragg. New York Post/AP.

New York City has dropped charges against Jose Alba, the bodega worker that stabbed an attacker to death, saying they could not prove that the case was not self defense. New York Post. The case drew outrage after video was released that showed the attacker pushing and shoving the Alba and showed the attacker's girlfriend stabbing Alba. The attacker, Austin Simon, was a criminal with a long history of convictions. His girlfriend, who instigated the entire incident when her EBT card failed, will not be charged either. Manhattan DA Alvin Brag cited the fact that Alba was older and was cut off from escape by Simon and also cited the fact that Simon's girlfriend said that Simon was going to "come down here and fuck you up".

My Comment:

This story broke yesterday but I somehow missed it until today. It's a slow news day but even then I thought it was important to cover this incident. This case was always an obvious incident of self defense, and on that was almost impossible to argue against. 

Why was it so obviously self defense? Well for one, Austin Simon was a career criminal that was both dramatically younger and stronger than Alba. He also cornered Alba and entered an area where he had no right to be. And we now know that his girlfriend said that Simon was going to come and "fuck [him] up". Any reasonable person would think that their life was in danger at that point. 

I don't think DA Alvin Bragg deserves any credit for this. I think if it wasn't for the fact that the video of the attack went viral and made everyone outraged and the fact that conservative media like New York Post covered the story Jose Alba would still be in jail. I don't think for a minute that Bragg saw the light, he's probably seething that public outrage forced his hand here. 

And I was pretty surprised at the level of public outrage. It was bipartisan in nature and the subject trended on twitter. Nobody could understand why Alba was charged and everyone thought that the DA was way out of line. Even the Mayor of New York spoke out about it. And I understand why, if this case isn't self defense nothing is. 

But the problem is that a lot of people simply don't believe that self defense is a thing, especially if the attacker is a black male. Though Alba is not white, he killed a black man and no matter the circumstances some people have a problem with that. I will never understand this mentality, if Alba had been attacked by a white guy and killed him, I would have zero problem with that. Indeed, I would praise him for taking out the trash. 

These people are probably going to do whatever they can to ruin Alba's life. He has said he is afraid to return to work and I don't blame him. Though he has proven he can defend himself I fear that he may be put into position to do that again...

Europe is facing a recession if Russian natural gas is cut off...

 

The Nordstream 1 pipeline. The Guardian/AP.

Europe is facing a recession if Russian natural gas is cut off, warns the International Monetary Fund. The Guardian. There is a large amount of fear that Vladimir Putin will keep the Nordstream 1 pipeline shut down after it finishes its annual maintenance schedule later this week. If Putin were to cut Europe off from natural gas entirely it could reduce the GDP of vulnerable EU countries up to 6%. The IMF said that the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary would be the worst off but Italy, Germany and Austria would be deeply affected as well. The IMF said that these countries could face a 40% natural gas shortage, which would be devastating to the economy. Some countries would be less likely to face disruptions, such as Greece, Sweden and Denmark. 

My Comment:

I think the IMF is being optimistic here. If Russian natural gas is shut off I am expecting a lot more damage to the economy of these European countries. Why? Because it's not just going to be the affects of the gas on the economy, it's going to cause stability issues which will further degrade the economy. 

Germany, for example, is going to have an extremely difficult time keeping the heat on for their people. If grandma freezes to death because there isn't enough natural gas the people of Germany are unlikely to blame Russia for it. They will instead blame the government that angered Russia enough to shut off the gas. And they are apparently in a better position than the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary. I am expecting if the gas is cut off than there will be riots and disorder, to the point where governments could fall or violence will erupt. 

Will Russia do it? I think they could easily. They have found other buyers for their natural gas and though it wouldn't be a cost free exercise it would dramatically hurt Europe a lot more than it would hurt them. It would put extreme pressure on these countries to give up their sanctions.

Russia has no reason to not to do this and they have a lot to gain. In addition to the possibility of getting rid of sanctions they would also gain the possibility of some of these governments falling. Though there is no guarantee that any new governments will be pro-Russia per se, but I am sure that they would likely less anti-Russia than the current governments. 

Keep in mind that all of this is occurring while Russia appears to be winning in Ukraine. The sanctions against Russia has not really damaged them but it has damaged Europe. And the massive deliveries of weapons and equipment have not helped the Ukrainians win. Indeed, Russia appears to have changed strategies from taking territory to destroying Ukrainian units. 

Given that being the situation it's insane to me that Europe is not trying to negotiate with Russia directly, without the United States. We all know Biden and his defense team are willing to fight to the last dead Ukrainian and doesn't give a single damn if Europe freezes to death this winter. Given that being the circumstances you would think that Europe would reassess things. Time will tell if they do it sooner or later, but I can't imagine this continuing forever. Either the rulers of Europe will come to their senses or they will be replaced but sooner or late some kind of agreement will have to be made with Russia. 

Will Joe Biden face a primary challenge in 2024?

 

Joe Biden. 

Joe Biden may face a primary challenge if he runs in 2024 for the Democrats. The Hill. With Biden's approval rating in the 30's and the candidates advance age many are questioning the wisdom of Biden running again. Young progressives are extremely disappointed with Biden with 94% of Democrat voters age 18-25 saying they want someone different. But the same poll said that 64% of all Democrats want a new candidate. Several names have been floated including Gavin Newsom of California, JB Pritzker of Illinois and current transportation secretary Pete Buttigieg. Democrats cite Biden's failures on Ukraine, inflation and high gas prices, and the failure to defend Roe v Wade, as reasons why they dislike Biden. 

My Comment:

It's utterly insane to me that Biden is even considering running in 2024. Given his advanced age there is a very good chance that Biden won't even be alive by the start of a 2nd term, let alone at the end of one in 2028. He's simply too old and in too poor of health to do such a thing. If he really believes that he can than he is totally out of touch. 

But totally out of touch is a good way to describe the Biden administration. On almost every issue he seems to be on the wrong side, but I say that as a Republican. Biden and his party is also tone deaf on what people care about. Nobody cares about January 6th or Jamal Khashoggi, they care about high gas prices, out of control inflation and surging crime rates. 

Democrats have more reasons to be upset with him, especially on the progressive side. One of their most sacred cows, Roe v Wade, has been slaughtered and Biden did nothing about that issue, other than make some noise about some executive order that may or may not happen. To be fair, there is almost nothing that Biden could do about it in the first place, but that's no excuse to these progressives. 

Biden also failed to get many of the other democratic hobby horse issues passed as well. Things like student debt relief and environmental nonsense have also not been acted on. Given that many young progressives held their nose and voted for Biden under the false idea that they would get a massive handout with their student loans. They obviously did not and likely will not. 

There is also chance that Biden might not even be President by the time that 2024 comes around. The Democrats are likely to lose the house and the senate and though the Republicans are very unlikely to get the 66 votes in the senate to remove Biden, it is possible that Biden is so unpopular and damaged after the 2022 elections that a few Democrats might be willing to pull the trigger on impeachment. Plus he might get 25th amendment-ed given his poor health and bad mental state. That seems pretty unlikely though. 

The problem is that the Democrats have an extremely weak field to put up against Biden. The three mentioned in the article do not strike me as serious people, let alone people that could beat Joe Biden. California Governor Gavin Newsom is unpopular nationally and given how terrible California is right now he's very easy to attack. Illinois Governor JD Pritzker is basically unknown outside of his state and has to deal with the massive crime rate in Chicago. 

Pete Buttigieg is probably the most ludicrous example cited. Buttigieg is well spoken, I will give him that. But he has been a massive failure as transportation secretary. Focusing on "racist roads" as opposed to gas prices and the massive logistical problems this country has was not a good look for him. Not to mention him being tainted for participating in the Biden administration that leaves him tainted. 

Who else does that leave? Hillary Clinton won't run again. Bernie Sanders is old and decrepit and has lost twice now. And Elizabeth Warren would be a gift to Donald Trump if he runs given how effective he is at getting under her skin. And Kamala Harris? Don't make me laugh, she couldn't even win her home state of California and was laughed out of the primaries. 

Biden probably knows that the Democratic field is weak and thinks that he is the only one that can beat Donald Trump, citing his supposed victory in 2020. But Biden is almost certainly not going to win if he goes up against Trump again, and even if Trump doesn't run, Ron DeSantis will still run circles around him. 

In short, there are no good solutions for the Democrats. And I don't think their voter fraud and deceptive tactics they used in 2020 will work again after Biden has been such a failure. There is no guarantee that Biden will even be able to run and his potential primary opponents are little better than he is. 

Armed civilian puts down mass shooter at an Indiana mall.

 

The mall where the shooting occurred. WTHR. 

An armed civilian put down a mass shooter that killed three people and wounded two more in Greenwood Indiana. WTHR. The shooter was armed with a rifle and was killed by what police are describing as a "good Samaritan". Witnesses said the shooter fired his rifle 20 times before he was killed. There is no motive for the shooting at this time. The civilian has been described as a 22 year old man and was carrying his firearm legally. 

My Comment:

This is a breaking news story with information developing. Some of the numbers could change, but it does seem like the death count is going to stay the same. It is unfortunate that three people died in this incident but I am not sad at all about the shooter getting wasted. 

Obviously this shows that the right person at the right time can end a mass shooting. A lot more people could have been killed in this incident if the good Samaritan, as the police are dubbing him, was not there. The shooter had several magazines and, if witnesses are correct and the shooter only had fired 20 shots, he had a lot of ammo left. 

Indiana recently revised their laws so that any law abiding citizen can carry a firearm if they can legally posses one. It's unclear if the hero had a permit or didn't but he was carrying his handgun legally. It's also unclear if the hero would have been carrying a firearm if he hadn't been able to carry without a permit. 

This case is a devastating indictment of anti-gun arguments that we hear so often. They claim that there aren't any "good guys with guns" and this is an obvious counter-example. They also claim that someone with an AR can't possibly be taken out by a guy with a pistol and this too proves that wrong. And it also shows that gun free zones are better targets for shooters as if this attacker had chosen a gun free zone nobody would have been able to stop him until police showed up. 

Speaking of police, this is a further indictment of the Uvalde police response to the shooter there. In that case police had long guns, body armor and ballistic shields and still took more than an hour to put the shooter down. The civilian here was able to put the shooter down without any of those things and with nothing but a pistol. 

As for the shooter himself, I don't really want to speculate about his motive. Doing so probably fuels these shootings. And it doesn't really matter. He's dead and I would be perfectly fine with it if we never even learned his name, let alone his motives. 

I do think that publicizing cases where mass shootings are put down by armed civilians is a good thing. Not only does it encourage people to purchase and carry firearms, meaning that more of these shootings will be put down, it also means that potential mass shooters will think twice about trying a mass shooting... 

Fishing update: New species.

 

Instead of a normal post I decided I would write up another one about my fishing adventures. It's been awhile since I caught a new species and today I caught one. As you can see from the pictures I caught a couple of flathead catfish today! 

I had never caught flatheads before, and I am not exactly sure why. The place I caught them is a place I have fished dozens of times and I hadn't even seen one pulled out of there before. I haven't exactly fished for them though either. Most of the time when I go for catfish I go for channel cats which were common in the river I fish. I mostly used stinky shrimp for them and I caught some big ones. Flathead catfish are more predatory and they tend to go for live bait instead. 

Unfortunately, the river I fish at, the Fox River, had a major channel cat (along with carp and freshwater drum) fish kill that seems to have all but eliminated the big channel catfish that were once so common. Since the fish kill last month I haven't seen an adult channel cat in the river, though I have seen and even caught a few juveniles. 

That has left the river in a state of flux. The white perch young of the year are now everywhere in the river. I believe it's because two of their major predators, channel cats and freshwater drum, died off. That leaves the flatheads and I think they are showing up because there is just so much bait in the water. 

It was funny though, the first flathead I caught was the small molted one pictured above. I was trying to catch some of those white perch for bait on jig and worm combo on my ultralight rod. Though the catfish was tiny, it put up a great fight on my ultralight, to the point that I netted him out of caution. The bigger one was caught on a Carolina rig that was baited with a small white perch. He put up a pretty good fight considering his size and the fact I was using my heavy catfish rod. 

I'm not satisfied with just these fishes though. I know flathead catfish get dramatically bigger than that and I would love to catch a big one. They don't get too big up here in Northeast Wisconsin but I would still like to catch one that was double digits big in size. I have caught channel cats that size but obviously never flatheads. 

Fears of civil unrest in Germany due to exploding natural gas prices.

 

A gas compressor in Mallnow Germany. Reuters. 

Analysts are warning of civil unrest in Germany due to exploding natural gas costs. Reuters. Natural gas costs could triple due to Russia cutting of supplies. People are being warned to set aside money and reduce energy consumption in an effort to weather the coming storm. Some are calling for price caps to keep gas prices low. The fuel crisis is starting to change German opinions on the Russia-Ukraine war with fewer people supporting a boycott on German natural gas. With exploding prices it is feared that Germans will not be able to pay their bills and that could lead to civil unrest. 

The news comes as Germany has been forced to draw down on their natural gas supplies that they had begun to store for winter. Reuters. The market conditions have forced them to draw down on their natural gas. They were at 64.4% yesterday, which was 0.1% less than on Wednesday. 

My Comment:

Though this article is about Germany, the same hard choices are going to be made throughout Europe until either the war in Ukraine or the sanctions against Russia end. As long as either of those things are not the case then Russia will continue to draw down natural gas supplies in Europe. 

And why wouldn't they? They view Ukraine as an existential threat and know that they have Europe by the throat here. Much of Europe is almost totally dependent on cheap Russian natural gas and even though they are attempting to move away from it, it won't be done in time before winter hits, if it ever even happens at all. Russia knows this and also knows that people will put up with a lot from their governments but will not tolerate freezing to death. 

And people are already saying that enough is enough. Support for sanctions against Russia are falling as people realize the devastating economic impact the sanctions are having on their own countries. Sanctions are easy when they are against a country that doesn't provide all that much, but when they are your biggest and sometimes only source of the lifeblood of your country? That's a huge deal and not one that people will support long term as the pressure ramps. 

What is utterly shocking about Germany specifically is that they had an out that would have made these sanctions bearable. I would still think they are misguided but they would have the ability to keep the lights on at least over this winter. I am, of course, talking about nuclear power. Germany has shut down almost all of their nuclear plants in what was an extreme and self-defeating overreaction to the Fukushima disaster. Though nuclear power wouldn't have solved everything as many Germany homes run on natural gas boilers, it would have at least reduced demand from power plants, making those prices lower than they will be this winter. 

Is civil unrest likely? Of course it is! We are already seeing backlash in Europe against the governments their, most notably in The Netherlands due to their foolish green farming initiative that would leave farmers out of work. And we just saw an entire government fall, albeit a 3rd world one, in Sri Lanka when that entire country ran out of fuel. 

But the situation in Germany could be worse than that. If people can't afford their natural gas to heat their homes then some people are going to die. Even worse, Germany could simply run out of gas so even the people that could still somehow afford it could not get it. Once grandma freezes to death because there is no gas to heat her home than all bets are off. People would have nothing to lose at this point and would take it out on the government they rightly blame for getting them into this mess in the first place. That could lead to riots, coups, insurgency or even all out civil war. 

And the proposed solution to this mess isn't trying to end the war diplomatically, or admitting that Russia has the advantage here and lifting sanctions. No, it's price caps! It's a terrible idea because Russia would be insane to sell the little fuel they are still providing to a country that caps the profit they can make. They would simply sell the fuel elsewhere or produce less. Plus, I am no economist, but I do know that they almost universally say that price caps are a bad idea because they inevitably lead to shortages. They will only make a bad problem into a terrible one.

The US military is having major difficulty finding recruits.

 

Army recruiters at a Wal-Mart. New York Times. 

The US military is having major difficulty finding recruits. New York Times. The problem is worse than it was after the Vietnam War with thousands of open positions waiting to be filled. The situation is so bad that some units are unable to function. The coronavirus pandemic is part of the problem as lingering restrictions prevent recruitment activities while many potential recruits are unwilling to comply with vaccine mandates. Another major problem is that so many young people are unfit for service, with obesity and criminal records being a major problem. 75%  of 17 to 25 year olds are unable to serve due to weight, criminal records or medical issues. The worker shortage also has an effect because most recruits now have better options. 

My Comment:

This article left out the elephant in the room. Potential military recruits, especially rank and file ones, tend to be conservative. But our current military? It's woke as hell. Why would anyone want to sign up for a woke military that is going to criticize you for your race and gender, make you shower with transgender people and generally oppose everything you believe in? 

It's insane that they would expect people to join up under these circumstances. At least in the civilian world, if you say something unwoke you just get fired. In the new woke US military? You can be arrested, imprisoned and rendering totally unemployable with a bad conduct discharge. Why would anyone who isn't totally on board with the woke want to sign up in that kind of system?

I think there is also a general fear that the war in Ukraine would heat up and troops would be sent to fight Russia. Given how terrible the fighting that the war in Ukraine has been I can understand why people would not want to join up. It's not like Russia has done anything to us so it's not like people would want to sign up for a war that isn't about defending America. The scenario is not likely but I do think that it is in the back of recruits minds. 

The New York Times mentioned that the pandemic is part of the problem but they got the situation wrong. I don't think that recruiters not being able to be out in the public is the problem. The vast majority of coronavirus restrictions are long gone and it really isn't a factor other than in the bluest of blue states, which most soldiers don't come from anyways. 

What the real issue is, and what somehow merited only a sentence in the New York Times article, is the fact that they are requiring vaccines for coronavirus. Vaccines are now very unpopular after they have proven that they don't actually prevent you from getting the virus. And people are rightly worried about getting a reaction to the shot. Plus the young people that are potential recruits are the ones that have the least to worry about from the virus. 

Of course the military is massively compounding their issue by requiring these vaccine mandates. Not only are they preventing potentially hundreds of thousands of people from joining, they are pushing out a huge number of soldiers, marines, sailors and airmen just because they don't want to take a risky shot that doesn't seem to help anything anyways. It makes zero sense whatsoever. 

The standards situation seems like a solvable one. I don't think they should hire people that have a criminal record or some kind of medical issue. But the obesity situation? That seems like something they could work with. I know back when I was considering a career in the military I was told that my overweight ass could join since they had a program for overweight recruits that would help them slim down. Did that go away? If it did why couldn't it start up again? Or failing that why not have a fitness program that you would complete before basic training? They might have quite a few washouts but it would allow people that would otherwise not be fit to join to sign up. 

As for the worker shortage I think that is a problem that is going to solve itself very quickly. There is still a worker shortage for now but that will go away very soon as the country heads into recession. Biden's economic policy has been nothing short of a catastrophe and the only reason there are still open jobs is because so many people checked out during the coronavirus pandemic. But layoffs have already begun and soon people will be begging for a job, with even the military being a possibility for some of them. 

Still, I struggle to think about why people would join an institution that hates them. Why would a hard charging and motivated person like to join the military that hates them because of their race, gender and political opinions. Who would want to defend a country lead by people like Joe Biden, Kamala Harris and Nancy Pelosi? Who would want to fight a war for stupid reasons in a country that has nothing to do with us instead of defending your own? At least in Iraq and Afghanistan we had an enemy, but now it seems like the real enemy for the people in control of the country are the very people that want to fight and die for them. As long as that is the case most people will avoid the military at all costs. 

Inflation surges to 9.1%, a 40 year high and higher than economists expected.

 

Shoppers at a Wal-Mart in California. Fox Business/AFP.

Inflation surges to 9.1%, which is a 40 year high and higher than economists expected. Fox Business. The prices have increased by 9.1% since last June and 1.3% since this May. Both numbers are considerably higher than predicted. Core prices, which remove volatile energy and food prices, went up 5.7% from last year and .7% from May. Food, energy, rent and housing prices all increased as well. The high rate of inflation has wiped out wage increases. Joe Biden said the numbers were misleading as gas prices have decreased since highs in May. However, they are still much higher than they were before Biden took office. 

My Comment:

As expected, the rate of inflation has continued to rise dramatically. This is the worst rate we have had in 40 years and it shows no signs of quitting anytime soon. Indeed, I expect things to get much, much worse. 

Why? Because the drop of gas prices is temporary at best. Prices have decreased due to a combination of Biden emptying out our strategic oil reserves, China going back into coronavirus lockdown and people traveling less due to high prices. Only the third thing seems likely to continue. We are blasting through our oil reserves and we will have completely depleted it by this fall. And China will continue to go in and out of lockdown as long as they pursue the zero covid strategy that has largely failed for them.

Other energy prices are going to go up as well. Though we aren't as dependent on natural gas as Europe is we are using it quite a bit for producing power. With demand likely to raise dramatically due to sanctions related to the Ukraine war and the fact that Russia is gleefully cutting of Europe from natural gas, we should expect to see prices explode soon. 

If there is any news that is good, wheat prices are starting to drop. Some wheat is getting out of the war zone in Ukraine and much of the environmental problems we had globally with winter wheat do not seem to be an issue with our summer crops. That doesn't mean that other food prices are going to drop, as much of the problem is related to transporting the food. 

Speaking of food prices, I was pretty shocked last week when I got through my groceries without spending $100. I don't have a whole lot of groceries to buy each week, but I know just a few years ago I was averaging between $70 and $80 with more recent grocery trips costing closer to $100 to $115. And that's just for one person. How are people with three kids handling this? 

I don't buy Biden's excuses at all. Slightly lower gas prices are not going to help things much. Having to pay $4.25 at the pump is better than $5 but we really need prices to be down to under $3 before we see things improve. And it's not like gasoline prices are the only reason why prices have skyrocketed, other energy prices are part of it as well. Not to mention the government printing money like it is out of style. 

This is going to cause a recession. People are already starting to buy less stuff. I know that I personally haven't been spending as much as I could be. In my case it's more being cautious with my money but a lot of people just can't afford to buy all the things they used to due to massive price increases. This is going to eventually lead to layoffs and business closures. We are already seeing that in the high end electric car industry and other industries will likely follow suit. 

Russia's Vladimir Putin claims that the west has already lost in Ukraine and that the US led international order is over.

 

Vladimir Putin. Newsweek/Getty.

Russia's Vladimir Putin claimed in a speech to Russian lawmakers that the west has already lost in Ukraine and that the US led international order is over. Newsweek. Putin said that the west lost as soon as the war in Ukraine started. He also said that there will be a transition from a unipolar US led world to a multipolar one and that the process has already begun. Putin also blamed the war in Ukraine on the United States and other western countries and said that they had been trying to interfere with Russia for years. 

 

Putin says the West already lost its confrontation with Russia, and now a fundamental and irreversible breakdown of the American-led liberal order is well under way. pic.twitter.com/OBFGh01SYc

— AZ 🛰🌏🌍🌎 (@AZmilitary1) July 12, 2022

My Comment:

I don't agree with everything Putin said here but much of it is spot on. My biggest disagreement with Putin is that the west alone started the war. Though I do think they deserve a large amount of the blame for the war the fact is that Russia didn't have to invade and could have used other means to accomplish their goals. Putin will always have responsibility for the war.  

I also don't think that Ukraine ever could have won the war unless it was a full scale war with US and other allies directly participating in combat. Russia always had way more troops than Ukraine and they also have better technology than Ukraine, and increasingly, the west. 

But that wasn't really why I wanted to make a post about this speech that Putin gave last week. The biggest takeaway is not something I disagree with at all. It's the idea that the American led hegemony is on the way out. That much seems obvious and I can't disagree with Putin there. 

Putin cites western failures in Ukraine as evidence of this and I can't disagree. After the initial missteps in the war and the failure to capture Kiev, Russia has turned things around there and now controls all of Luhansk and much of the rest of Donbass. The billions of dollars in weapons and support we have given Ukraine has not significantly changed the outcome of the war. Sure, the proliferation of western anti-tank and anti-air missiles made the Russians switch tactics from tank warfare to World War I style artillery duels, but that's about all it accomplished. 

In addition the United States mostly failed to get the rest of the world onboard with western sanctions against Russia. Europe went along with it but that's about it. Asia, Africa and South America told us to pound sand. Speaking of pounding sand, when Biden wanted to get more oil from the Middle East they wouldn't even take his calls. I know Biden is going to visit Saudi Arabia soon but I doubt much will be accomplished. 

It is also important to note how little Western sanctions did to Russia. Sure, they have had some problems and economic issues but for the most part they have survived. The west is not doing anywhere near as well with prices on just about everything exploding and Europe seriously wondering if they are going to be able to heat their homes this winter. 

Another good example of our failure recently is the fall of Afghanistan. Though the event has largely been memoryholed, it can't be understated how embarrassing the event was. Our withdrawal was an absolute disaster and it left us with a lot of dead soldiers and little else. We were there for 20 years and the end of the war and the beginning ended the same way. With the Taliban in power. 

Russia and China are also obviously a lot more powerful now than they have been in years. And they are gaining allies while the west is losing them. They are creating parallel networks to avoid western sanctions and generally succeeding. With the United States waning in power there will be a vacuum that will be filled.  

Is this outcome set in stone? Probably. If Joe Biden wasn't in power right now much of the damage he has done could be reversed. But Biden, or Kamala Harris if something happens to him, will be in power until 2024. And at that point I think it will be too late. Russia will likely have won the war in Ukraine by then and then our credibility will be shot. 

I would say that Russia should remember that just because America seems to be on the way out that does not mean that Russia will be the one in charge next. Indeed, I think the best thing that Russia will get is as a junior partner to China. But that's if they are lucky. In a China dominated world, China will likely take whatever they want from Russia after they don't have to worry about the United States anymore... 

New York City releases PSA about what to do in the event of a nuclear strike.

 

A screencap from the PSA. Fox News. 

New York City has released a new PSA abut what to do in the event of a nuclear strike. Fox News. The PSA said the possibility of a nuclear strike on New York City remained low. However, they gave advice about what steps you can take to survive a nuclear conflict. The information is basic and mostly involves getting inside and listening to public safety media. The video also advised people to bag their clothing and taking a shower if they are outside when the blast hits.

My Comment:

Whenever you see something like this you have to wonder "what do they know that I don't". Obviously, tensions with Russia are sky-high right now and our tensions with China are only somewhat better. Are they bad enough that we should be reviewing what to due in the case of a nuclear strike? Perhaps, but this video from New York City isn't much better. 

I do think it is funny that they are doing this in New York City of all places. Of all the cities that would get nuked in a major war, New York City is either #1 or #2 on the list, with Washington DC being the other major one. New York City is a major port, an economic powerhouse and a huge symbolic target. If a war happens it's not only going to be targeted by a nuke, it's going to probably take multiple hits. 

It also makes most of the advice fairly irrelevant. If you are at ground zero this advice is almost certainly not going to save you. Being inside might help but only until the building collapses or bursts into flames in the ensuing firestorm. That means that most of the people in New York City would be doomed regardless. 

Of course I would probably be following this advice if I was for somehow in NYC while a nuclear war was breaking out. Why? Because on the margins of a blast it probably could save your life. Being inside when the blast hits is obviously better than being outside. And if you are outside taking a shower and changing clothing is good advice as well. And you would be wise to listen to what is left of the media and/or emergency services and stay inside until the fallout clears (three to five weeks if I remember correctly). 

The PSA has a glaring problem though and that is a lot of the advice is not going to be feasible after a major strike. How are you going to wash off the fallout when your water is out? How can you stay inside if you don't have a month worth of food and water? And how can you listen to emergeny alerts if your phone doesn't have a charge and you have now power? And if you do have those things, how do you keep them safe from the people that don't?

With that being said, people tend to overestimate the dangers of nuclear war. Millions would die of course and America would largely cease to exist as it is now. But nuclear war is not the civilization ender that it is portrayed. There would likely not be a nuclear winter and what remained of the military and the government would be there to help to some point. Most of the world would only be affected indirectly due to the massive damage to global trade that the war would cause. 

I also think that a person's experience in a nuclear war would likely come down to where you are at the time. If you are in a country that isn't involved and isn't close to the waring parties you would be fine other than the economic disaster. If you were in a targeted city you would likely die. Everyone else would probably survive in the short term and most would probably survive in the long term as well, just at a dramatically lower standard of living. 

In my case I live in a suburb of a city that is likely eating a nuke. I also know that a military base to the west of us would get a nuke, a shipbuilder to the north is taking one as well and the place that I went to college would likely be a priority target since it produces military vehicles (people should be able to figure out that I live in Northeast Wisconsin from those clues). 

That means in the even of a nuclear war this advice is probably good for me. I think I would be outside of the instant death radius but it could be pretty bad if I was outside. If I was at work though, I'd be eating that nuke and it wouldn't matter anyways. If I got lucky though I think I would survive if I was at home and inside at the time. Life would suck afterwards and I would lose many of my friends, family and coworkers but at least I would have a chance, which is more than I would say that most people in New York City have... 

Did Hunter Biden's iPhone just get hacked?

 

Hunter Biden. 

As you are probably aware if you are on social media, and totally ignorant of if you are not, Hunter Biden's iPhone appears to have been hacked. The mainstream media has largely ignored the story and the only website I have seen covering it that is even close to being mainstream is the Washington Examiner. That article mostly covered the original leak from Hunter Biden's laptop, and only paid lip service to this story. 

So what exactly is going on? I don't know. I haven't seen the files and have no intention of downloading them due to the obvious legal concerns and the possibility of child sex abuse images in the phone data, which have been widely mentioned but not confirmed. People have said that they have downloaded the information, which was hundreds of gigabytes large. But given this is the internet it's extremely hard to figure out what exactly is going on.

So is this legitimate or not? It's extremely hard to tell. For the record, I don't want to make too strong of claims either way. The accusations are salacious and involve sexual abuse, drugs and possible corruption. And they seem to match the confirmed information from Hunter Biden's laptop. With that being said, it's fairly impossible to confirm or deny what is legitimate and what is not here. I make no claims on the authenticities of these leaks and should not be taken as anything other than an opinion.  

I do think some of the pictures are probably real. The ones I have seen did not resemble the ones that went viral when Biden's laptop leaked. The photos and videos appear to be real but don't seem that incriminating. We already knew that Hunter Biden did drugs and had sex with high end call girls. That's nothing new. 

There are rumors of worse things on Hunter Biden's phone but I haven't seen any direct evidence. There are allegations, which pre-date the phone, that Biden had an affair with his own niece but that has in no way been confirmed. Same with the aforementioned rumors of child abuse material, I haven't seen confirmation of that either. 

I have seen some things that might indicate corruption with Joe Biden, but again, none of this is confirmed. Same with the idea that Joe Biden was "pedo pete" in Hunter's phone. Who knows if that is true or a photoshop? None of this is confirmed. 

As a general rule I think that the photos are probably the only thing that we should treat as evidence of anything. I know that photoshop and deep fakes are a thing but those are pretty easy to spot and I didn't see anything obvious. But the text leaks could be easily faked, same with the allegations of corruption. Without confirmation that the files that real from an expert source I am extremely wary of saying anything either way.

So why write about it if the story is in no way confirmed? Because nobody else is. Like I said the Washington Examiner story is the only one that has even slightly covered this story. This is, of course, an abdication of the duties of journalists. The entire point of journalism is to dig into stories like this. The fact is that they are not and given the fact that the last outlet to look into Hunter Biden, the New York Post, almost got banned from all social media from doing so, I don't expect any major news outlets from checking in to this story. I'm not a professional journalist or technically adept so I can't do the things they can do but if nothing else I can draw attention to this story so hopefully someone that has those skills can do so. 

I also have questions about the origins of this hack. On Twitter 4chan is trending but that's not the real source of these files. 4chan was only the place where an anonymous user posted the links to the files. Obviously, they aren't responsible for the hack or the story and eventually banned the threads for violating their doxxing policy. There are rumors of who actually did this and someone had a livestream about this but I didn't watch it and can't evaluate if those rumors are true. It's possible that this was hacked by a state actor or one of Biden's many enemies. And it is also possible that this is a legit disinformation campaign with real photos mixed in with doctored texts. 

If the media does end up covering this story I do think that it would indicate that Biden is finally on his way out. They did cover for him for a long time, especially during the 2020 election. But the patience for Joe Biden has to be running out and the powers that be might want to get rid of him and try Kamala Harris instead. Not that her approval ratings are any better but if they did want to get rid of Biden this could be a way to do so. 

The other possibility, outside of the current radio silence, is the tactic they used before where they attacked the source of the leak instead of the contents. When the laptop story happened they attacked the New York Post and the computer repair shop that found it. When Ashley Biden's diary leaked they completely ignored it and attacked outlets like Project Veritas that covered it. Both leaks ended up being legitimate so if it happens again it's slim circumstantial evidence that the story might be legit. 

Regardless, this is a very confusing and dissatisfying story and I wish I could do more to illuminate the story. But without the files or reputable reporting, what can I do? This post has mostly been speculation but that's all any of us have... 

Former Prime Minster of Japan, Shinzo Abe, assassinated during a campaign speech.

 

Onlookers watch a news report detailing the shooting of Abe. NPR/Getty.

Former Prime Minster and political heavyweight Shinzo Abe was cut down by an assassin while giving a political speech in Nara City. NPR. Abe was Japan's longest serving Prime Minster but stepped down in 2020 due to poor health. He was giving a speech on this weekend's elections in Japan when an assassin armed with a home-made shotgun fired twice, hitting Abe in the neck and back. The suspect in the killing is a 41 year old man who claimed to be upset with Abe and wanted him dead, but the motive for the attack remains unclear. Abe had a successful run as Prime Minster and was a nationalist who had a goal of revising Japan's constitution to allow a stronger military. 

My Comment:

Absolutely shocking news out of Japan. This would be the equivalent of Donald Trump or Barack Obama being assassinated. But even that fails as Abe had a longer career than both. He was a huge figure in Japanese history and can be considered Japan's best post-war prime minster. 

I had heard about Shinzo Abe assassination attempt last night and even then I was fairly certain he wasn't going to survive. He was shot point blank by a homemade black powder shotgun and at that close range he was going to need a miracle to survive. From what I understand the doctors made a heroic effort, giving him 100 units of blood for example, but the damage was just too severe.

The method of assassination was somewhat surprising as well. Japan is famous for its draconian gun laws to the point that it's impossible for most people to get a gun. Even shotguns are very hard to get. But that did not prevent this assassin from building his own black powder gun. It just goes to show that even the most draconian gun laws on earth can't stop gun crime if the criminal is determined enough. 

Speaking of the assassin, details about him are scarce. He has been identified as a 41 year old veteran of Japan's self defense fleet. Motive is a mystery right now, all the media is saying is that he was "dissatisfied" with Abe, a statement so vague it could mean almost anything. Given my unfamiliarity with Japanese politics, I will refrain from speculating too much as to motive. 

The Japanese people have to be shocked by this. Violence of any kind is rare there, let alone the assassination of a powerful and sometimes beloved political leader. To see him murdered like this has to have a great effect on these people. I don't know what the future will bring but Abe's legacy will be felt for generations, even ignoring the circumstances of his death.

For me personally, I always liked Abe. He seemed like one of the rare world leaders that actually cared about his people and wanted to do what was best for them. He was much like Donald Trump in that regard and it's probably a reason why they got along so well. I have some history with Japan, we had a foreign exchange student from there when I was growing up and I visited the country when I was a child, so this assassination bothers me more than it would otherwise...

I do have to say that I was not surprised that a major world leader, albeit a retired one, was cut down by an assassin. These are strange, stressful times and a lot of people are starting to crack. It's not just here in the United States either, as this incident shows. And given the trajectory the world seems to be on right now I have little hope of avoiding further incidents of this type. Given the intense media coverage the death of Shinzo Abe will rightfully get, I do fear that there could be copycat attacks both here and abroad.

New York City DA charges bodega worker with murder after ex-con corners and assaults him. Major self-defense case.

 

Bodega worker Jose Alba. New York Post. 

The New York City DA has charged a bodega worker with murder after an ex-con corners and assaults him. New York Post. 61 year old Jose Alba was charged with murder after a 35 year old ex-con named Austin Simon ended up getting stabbed to death. Simon, a career criminal, got into a confrontation over Alba over a bag of chips. Simon confronted Alba, pushed him and prevented him from leaving. Alba picked up a knife and stabbed Simon five times, killing him. Alba was also stabbed by Simon's girlfriend three times. She has not been charged. A judge had set the bail in the case at an extremely high $250,000, but reduced it today to $50,000, allowing Alba to put up the money to be released. 

Manhattan bodega worker charged with murder. Woman who didn't have enough money for her item, went to the car to get her boyfriend, who then came behind the counter to attack the clerk.. Jose Alba, 51, cut the man up, and is being charged with murder. Held on $250,000 bail. #NYC pic.twitter.com/kZ3Ju5yVDq

— YouDontHaveToWatch (@StarsAndBars123) July 6, 2022

My Comment:

Jose Alba has gotten a lot of support among both the left and right. To the point even the mayor of New York gave Alba a bit of support, but notably did not condemn the DA for making this charge. Almost everyone agrees that this was a clear case of self defense. 

I am not an expert on New York laws but in my state it seems clear that Alba would not have been charged. Simon had him cornered and had already attacked him once. Alba was trying to retreat when Simon attacked him again. Only then did Alba use his knife. I think a reasonable person would fear for their life in that scenario and even if New York has a duty to retreat, which they do, Alba appears to have fulfilled that duty. 

What is crazy to me is that Simon's girlfriend wasn't charged with assault or attempted murder. She stabbed Alba several times and it was her attempt to steal a bag of chips that caused the incident in the first place. I think she should be charged and Alba should be released. 

I think this case is a good example of Anarcho-Tyranny. The state had no interest in this case until a man with a long history of crime ended up dead. The state would have never prosecuted the girlfriend for her theft or Simon for his assault on Alba. But the second Alba defends himself the full power of the state comes down on him. It's insane and extremely frustrating. 

This seems like George Zimmerman/Trayvon Martin all over again. The big difference is that this time the attacker isn't being lionized by the media and the person who defended himself isn't being demonized (so far). Though both Zimmerman and Alba are Hispanic the fact that Alba looks more "exotic" for lack of a better term than Zimmerman ever did he can't be painted as a white racist. I think that allowed people on the left to be outraged about this case as well. 

What is shameful is that the fundraising site, GoFundMe, has removed a fundraiser for Alba to pay his bail and fund his defense. Though the GoFundMe terms of service prevent raising a defense fun for people charged with violence, that rule is idiotic and is used selectively against people claiming self defense. I am also guessing if the races were reversed they would have no problem leaving the fundraiser up. My guess their outrage is more due to the fact that the "wrong people" are donating to Alba. 

I do think that the public outrage over this case will likely lead to the charges against Alba being dropped. I don't think even the most twisted reading of New York laws would call this anything other than self-defense. And the fact that he outrage is bipartisan in nature means that there is going to be a lot of pressure on the DA to drop the charges. I hope that that isn't wishful thinking on my part but even if it is, I can't imagine Alba being convicted at trial.