A migrant crisis between Poland and Belarus is raising fears of a major European war. Politico. The weapon is 2000 migrants stuck between Poland and Belarus. Poland does not want the migrants but Belarus will not let them back in. Poland has closed their border with Belarus in response and have accused Moscow of coordinating the move. Belarus' leader, Alexander Lukashenko, would have difficulty launching a war against Poland but it is possible that the situation spirals out of control. Poland is a NATO member and Belarus is allied with Russia, which could lead to a major war. But a smaller scale conflict is more likely than a major European war.
My Comment:
The long period of European peace has been a historical oddity and one that will not last forever. I do think that a major war in Europe is likely and perhaps inevitable. We have seen a few small flare ups but remember, Europe is a continent that has seen war since human habitation begun. This situation could be the think that sets it off.
I'm not convinced that this is a conspiracy with Russia though. Belarus does not need Russia to tell them to try and get rid of their migrants, that seems like a very logical and basic thing to do. Nobody wants these supposed refugees and everyone understands that they are more of an invasion force than anything else. Pushing them off on Poland makes sense.
And, of course, Poland's refusal to take these people makes sense as well. Poland is a more conservative country and seem to better recognize the threat that unchecked migration can cause. They have no real need for these people and don't want to take care of them.
As for the migrants themselves, they should just head back to where they came from. It's one thing to try and get a better life but it is another to be used as a hand grenade that could be used to start up a war. Plus hanging outside in November weather where they are has to be uncomfortable. Wouldn't it be better for these people to just go home? Even Afghanistan sounds a bit better than this.
Could a war break out? Sure. Border skirmishes have turned into actual wars before. And Belarus has been extremely aggressive lately, to the point where they have even cut down the fences that Poland has put up. All it takes is one person firing a shot or throwing a punch and it could escalate into a shootout.
I don't think either country is ready for a war though. Poland's more ready, as they have been improving their army quite a bit. They also have a bit of combat experience in Iran and Afghanistan, so I think their army is competent enough. Belarus though is a basket case and I don't see them being able to do much of anything. They have an Army that is dramatically smaller than Poland (62,000 to 150,000) and their equipment is outdated.
The situation does remind me of World War I. That war, a small conflict between relatively unimportant countries brought the whole continent to war. That could happen again. NATO would almost certainly support Poland and Russia could support Belarus. And I think hawks in the west are going to exploit this situation to make the Ukraine situation even worse (incredibly some Republicans are calling for deploying troops there).
I do think that the situation will probably be resolved peacefully. One thing Poland could do is take the migrants in and then just deport them. The EU might like it, but it would totally defuse the situation. Plus even if there is some kind of skirmish that doesn't mean there would be a full scale war. We saw similar situations recently, India vs China, Russia vs Turkey, India vs Pakistan and so on and so forth. My guess is that peace will probably prevail but it is something to pay attention too.
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