New poll shows President Trump on track to win in November.

President Donald Trump. Express/Getty.

A new poll shows President Trump on track to win a 2nd term this November. Express. The poll, done by the non-partisan Democracy Institute (and the obviously partisan Daily Express) shows President Trump with a two point lead over Joe Biden, 48-46. President Trump crucially has a lead in swing states such as Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The poll shows President Trump getting higher marks for the economy. The poll also shows that 71% of Trump voters are unwilling to admit it to people. However, a potential sticking point for President Trump is his approval on the Coronavirus pandemic, which is underwater at 41-49% approval and disapproval. 

My Comment:

A few caveats about this poll. First of all, I am skeptical of any poll that doesn't show the methodology and sample size. I will say that at least they included the party affiliation and other demographic information but I'm not sure what is going on as the numbers don't make any sense as they all add up to more than 100%.

That being said, I do think this matches up with other polling I trust. Rasmussen has Trump's approval rate at 51%, better than it has been in months. That outlet was one of the few that got the 2016 election right, even if they didn't do as well in the 2018 midterms. 

Of course a lot of other polling has shown that President Trump is behind, sometimes by double digits. I don't really trust those polls either as they have the same problem the Democracy Institute has but worse. These polls have been massively oversampling Democrats, just like they did in 2016. 

So with none of the polls all that reliable, can we trust any of them? Probably not. I'd also point out that we are still a ways out before the election, at this point in 2016 the polling was way off but got a little bit better closer to the election. 

If the Democracy Institute and Rasmussen polls are correct and not an outlier, what is the cause? I think part of it is that Americans have different priorities that just the Coronavirus. In the poll it showed that the economy was a big factor and though President Trump hasn't been perfect on the economy he has been better than the Democrats. After all, he isn't pushing for another round of lockdowns like many Democrats are and I think voters have realized that doing so would be ruinous for the economy. 

And I think President Trump's handling of the Coronavirus might be viewed more positively now. Why? Largely because a few other countries that have been praised for the virus response are now dealing with a resurgence. Australia, who once had almost completely defeated the virus, has now resorted to a new round of lockdowns. Even if there is criticism of President Trump for his response this is showing that there isn't much he could have done. 

Another major issue is the George Floyd riots. President Trump's hands off approach where he only threatened to use force in the vast majority of cases made the debate not about him. After seeing cities burning, people getting beaten and people even killed by Antifa and Black Lives Matter most people turned on the protesters. People are rightly blaming the Democrats for the violence and it's helping President Trump.

Also helping President Trump is the fact that Joe Biden is basically a non-factor. He's not making speeches and not reaching a large audience. He has the media covering for him but it's also pretty clear that he appears to be declining mentally. Biden was always a gaffe machine but the gaffes are becoming more frequent. 

Biden's VP choice is going to be a huge problem for him regardless. Given his poor health and mental abilities a vote for Biden is a vote for his VP and the choices he has floated have been controversial to say the least. Given his self imposed limitations to ensure that a black woman is the candidate that alone might be enough to ensure that he doesn't win. But if he picks a radical like Karen Bass he will scare moderates. And if he picks Harris he undermines the entire Democratic Party's pitch, that criminal justice is unfair against black, by picking someone who has been historically very unfair to the black community. 

Still, a lot can happen between now and November. Back in January nobody could have predicted the Coronavirus (well some people did) or the George Floyd riots. There are a lot of things that could dramatically change the race like China's Three Gorges Dam collapsing or Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg dying. 

Without a crystal ball nobody sure what could happen but my guess still remains that President Trump wins a 2nd term. It would have been totally certain if it wasn't for the Coronavirus. But Biden is such a weak candidate, the Democrats so out of control and the power of incumbency so strong I'd be shocked if he didn't win.