North Korea may be willing to talk to the United States.

Ivanka Trump in the stands at the Olympics. BBC/AFP.

North Korea has signaled willingness to talk with America though America warns that any talks must include a discussion on nuclear disarmament. BBC. North Korea passed this information on to the South Koreans on the last day of the Winter Olympics. North Korea has been giving mixed messages though as they have kept their dramatic rhetoric over new US sanctions. South Korea seems hopeful that a meeting could be possible, despite a similar effort falling apart when Vice President Mike Pence was in South Korea.

My Comment:

I will believe that bilateral talks between North Korea and the United States will happen when they actually happen. We have already been burned by the North Koreans during the Olympics already. They were supposed to meet with Vice President Pence but they canceled that at the last minute. 

I've said before that the concept of "face" is huge to understanding the North Koreans. They want to avoid being embarrassed and want to gain respect and prestige. That makes me think that any discussion on the nuclear program is a non-starter. They have invested a huge amount of money into the program but that doesn't matter. What matters is that they have invested a massive amount of prestige into it and won't give it up unless they can do so in a way that gains them respect domestically and internationally. 

That doesn't mean that we shouldn't talk with them. There is always a possibility that a diplomatic breakthrough could happen if we talk and almost zero chance of that happening if we don't. If we can keep the lines of communication open than perhaps a deal can be made. If so everyone involved ends up as a winner so it's not like there isn't incentives for everyone to participate. Avoiding a massive war on the Korean peninsula is in everyone's best interest. 

Time is a factor as well. The North Koreans are on the verge of having nuclear tipped ballistic missiles. That would be a huge threat to the west coast of the United States. Even though there is no guarantee that a nuclear attack would be successful or wouldn't be intercepted by our missile defenses the threat is still unacceptable and growing every day. 

Of course we also have to consider that this is just a ploy by the North Koreans. In the past North Korea has often tried to use diplomacy to try and get sanctions eased or get aid. These diplomatic efforts were not in good faith and were used only for the advantage of the North. This could very well be what is happening here as the sanctions seem to be having an effect on North Korea. 

That being said I do hope that these talks happen and that some kind of solution is made. War in the Korean Peninsula would be a huge mistake for everyone involved. Both Koreas would be devastated by that war and it would tank the world economy. Not to mention the fact that a lot of our troops would die in the war. We would still win the war but it would be at an unacceptable cost. 

Of course the main talk in Washington seems to be if diplomacy fails, there may be a limited strike on North Korea's nuclear program. This strike would be a "bloody nose" strike designed to humiliate North Korea and destroy their nuclear weapons program, which is similar to what we did to Syria after they were accused of using chemical weapons. Such an attack might accomplish those goals but I fear that a larger war might erupt if it happens. Unlike the Syrians, who meekly tolerated a strike on their airbase, I doubt the North Koreans would go along with it. I still think that continued diplomacy is the way to go.