A Turkish backed member of the Free Syrian Army carries binoculars. Reuters.
Confusion reigns in Syria as reports indicate that Syria may deploy troops to fight the Turks invading Afrin. Reuters. Turkey has threatened violence if the Syrians join the Kurds in defending the Afrin region from the Turks, who are attempting to clear out the fighters in the region. The Turks say that the YPG is a splinter group of the PKK, who they consider terrorists. The Kurds have reported that the Syrians have agreed to deploy troops to Afrin, and Syrian state media also confirmed this, but as of this writing no units have been deployed. Turkish president Tayyip Erdogan has been contacting other countries, including Russia and Iran, to try and pressure the Syrians.
My Comment:
There is a lot of confusion in Syria right now and I am not sure anyone knows for sure what is going to happen here. My guess is that the descion to deploy troops is not one that is going to be made solely by Syria. Despite their greatly improved position, Syria is still very dependent on their Russian and Iranian allies. If they pressure them enough I think they will back down against the Turks.
On the other hand, I don't know how much pressure Putin and Iran will put on Assad. Russia seems to want better relations with Turkey and Iran doesn't want an independent Kurdistan either since they have their own population of Kurds that could be inspired. On the other hand they might not want to pressure Syria too much on this since they obviously want to protect their borders.
Turkey doesn't seem to be doing too well in Afrin. The Kurds have proven fairly resilient and what should have been a quick operation hasn't turned out that way. Unlike ISIS, who melted under Turkish pressure, the Kurds have stuck in there. The Turks have a modern military but it is a testament to the Kurds that they still stand.
Still, without help the Kurds in Afrin are probably doomed. Even though the Turks have stalled out they are still way more powerful than the Kurds. The Kurds don't have the anti-armor and anti-air weapons they need to stop the Turkish offensive. They can make the Turks pay a heavy price and that's their only hope besides outside intervention.
Of course it's not like the Syrians are quite strong enough to defeat the Turks either. Their military, though stronger than it has been, is still bled dry through years of warfare. They still have heavy weapons but it's not like they have forces to spare. Their troops are bogged down fighting the rebels, al-Nusra and ISIS and could probably only deploy token forces to Afrin anyways. It would mostly be a symbolic gesture.
Syria is an abosulte mess and it is disturbing how bad things are getting right now. The various proxy factions are all fighting each other and there is potential for war between regional factions. Russia, America, Turkey, Iran and Israel have all been involved in major skirmishes lately and it seems that Syria is turning into a free fire zone where everyone fights everyone.
There is even major tension between NATO allies. Turkey and America had a major spat over the Afrin incursion and though diplomacy seems to be working there was a question if the two allies might be shooting at each other in Syria. That's just how horrible things are in Syria right now.
As for the Kurds, they have the misfortune of being between all these various factions and none of them have the Kurds as their first priority. The Kurds are a useful tool for the Americans and Russians, a rebellious faction for the Syrians, an existential threat for the Turks and the wrong religion for Iran. And they also have to deal with the ISIS holdouts that still exist.
They deserve better than this. Though I have a problem with the Kurds leftist political beliefs, the fact of the matter is that they were crucial for destroying ISIS and a major US ally. We fought with them side by side by one of the evillest armies to ever exist and I think they deserve something for that service to the world. The fact that the rest of the world sees the Kurds as nothing more than a pawn is highly regrettable to say the least.
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