Roy Moore loses against Doug Jones in the Alabama special election.

Doug Jones.

The Alabama Senate race between Roy Moore and Doug Jones has been called with Doug Jones winning. To say this is shocking is an understatement. The polls had Moore up by almost double digits, other than a few outliers, in the past week. Right now it looks like Jones is going to win by less than 1%. 

It was a very close election and that alone is surprising. Alabama is an incredibly safe red state where Trump won in a landslide. Yet Roy Moore was not able to win. From exit polling it seems as though GOP turnout was down while Democratic turnout was way up, especially among black voters. 

So why did this happen? Obviously the accusations against Roy Moore hurt him and hurt him badly. It didn't matter that they were largely innocuous. It also didn't matter that one of the worst accusations, that he had molested a 16 year old, was debunked when the accuser admitted to faking the evidence against him, a yearbook signature. I think a major problem is that debunking happened very late in the election and wasn't covered in the national media at all. Still, enough people believed the accusations that it probably kept Moore out of the senate. 

I think it was also a major factor that the Harvey Weinstein scandal exploded near the same time. Right now sexual assault and harassment is a major issue and the coverage is almost hysterical. This likely motivated the Democrats and depressed turnout for Republicans, especially when ads were released saying that anyone who voted for Roy Moore might be publicly exposed. This voter intimidation likely worked as people probably had a legitimate fear of getting Brendon Eich'ed. To say that voter intimidation was disgusting is an understatement but in such a close election it might have worked. 

Money probably had a role in this election as well. Doug Jones had a lot of money pouring into the state from the Democrats and various celebrities. Roy Moore had to deal with the fact that the national Republican Party cut off his money. Moore was outspent and the Democrats very wisely spent their money on get out the vote measures. I am loath to give Democrats credit for anything, but I will say that they played to win. 

Moore also made a major mistake in not campaigning as hard as he could have been. Moore did not spend much time on the road and he was never able to make the race about his policies instead of his personal life. There was a reason why Moore won the primaries and it was because his policies were front in center. Had he been able to focus on that he would have won. 

The GOP deserves a lot of the blame for this as well. Had they backed Moore from the start he probably could have won. Right now the margin is about 10,000 votes and I am guessing that could have been made up if the GOP had put any effort into getting Moore elected at all. At the last minute there was a push but it obviously wasn't enough. I am hoping that there are repercussions for people like Mitch McConnell who refused to back Moore. Indeed, for much of the race it looked like the GOP leadership wanted Doug Jones to win.

Trump's descion to back Luther Strange in the primaries makes a lot more sense now. I am guessing a GOP candidate with less baggage than Moore would have won and won easily. Strange, or even Mo Brooks, likely wouldn't have had the media circus that sunk Moore. It makes me wonder if Trump didn't know this attack was coming before hand. 

So does this race have an impact outside of Alabama? I don't know. The media would like to think so but I think it is far too soon to tell. Moore was a special case and had been accused of horrible behavior, whatever the veracity of those claims. The vast majority of Republican candidates won't have that much baggage and will have support from the GOP.

Still, it is very disturbing to me that the false accusations against Moore worked. Democrats will likely try this again and there is a chance that any Republican will be accused of things that happened 20 to 40 years ago. They have no shame at all and have no problem with lying to people. Anyone without a completely unimpeachable record will be attacked. Anyone not following the "Mike Pence" rule will be vulnerable...

EDIT: I have corrected the age of the Roy Moore accuser, Beverly Young Nelson. She was 16 when the alleged assault occurred, not 14. I regret the error.