Did Yemen's Houthi rebels launch a missile at a nuclear reactor in the United Arab Emirates?

The United Arab Emirates Barakah nuclear power plant. New York Times/Emirates News Agency. 

Yemen's Houthi rebels claim to have launched a missile at a nuclear power plant in the United Arab Emirates though the UAE denies these claims. New York Times. The attack was claimed by Houthi rebels and was motivated by the Saudi led blockade of Yemen which the UAE supports. The UAE denies these claims and said that even if they had their anti-missile defenses would have destroyed the missile before it hit. Houthi rebels have launched missile attacks in the past but it is unclear if this attack was genuine. 

My Comment:

Disturbing story out of Yemen. Regardless of the truth of the story, the fact that the Houthis are so openly targeting a nuclear power plant is not a good thing. And I am certain that the Houthis have the capabilities to launch missiles that could potentially hit the Barakah power plant. They have several ballistic missile launchers and there are rumors that the Iranians have provided them with more. They are one of the only rebel movements in the world to ever launch a ballistic missile strike on their enemies and they have hit the Saudis with them several times. 

What would happen if one of those missiles hit a nuclear plant? Nothing good. From what I understand the project isn't complete but two of the reactors are ready to go and presumably have nuclear fuel in them. I do know that nuclear power plants are well protected to withstand impacts but I don't know if this plant is rated for a ballistic missile strike. I don't know if that would have even come up during the design phase. 

Still, even if the reactors took a direct hit, it wouldn't result in a nuclear explosion. A fusion or fission reaction requires quite a bit of precision in the design of a weapon and that can't happen just from a missile hitting the core. We don't need to worry about this turning into a nuclear blast. 

What we do need to worry about is a meltdown. My guess is that a direct hit would be worse than Chernobyl. Any containment leak would escape into the atmosphere would greatly endanger anyone having to deal with the fires and rescue operations. A lot of people would get sick and die if containment were to be breached. And the radiation would spread throughout the region making a lot of people sick or even killing them. That's the worst case scenario and thought it is unlikely we have to consider it a possibility. A slim one, but real one. 

Still, it's not like there aren't defenses. The reactors are resilient and it would probably take a direct hit to break containment and even then it's no sure thing. And a direct hit isn't that likely. The type of missiles the Houthis use are a variant of the Scud Missile called the Volcano H-2, or perhaps the Iranian Qaim-1 missiles. Scuds and their variants aren't exactly known for their accuracy. My guess it that it would take a lucky hit to even threaten the nuclear reactors. 

The UAE also has a robust air defense system that can intercept these missiles. The Saudis have used their systems to shoot down one of the missiles that had been targeting their King Khalid airport in Riyahd, so we know that they can at least try to shoot them down. It's not a completely secure system, like the UAE argues, but it will help if the Houthis try this again. 

But did the incident in question actually happen? I am not sure. This is a classic case of he said he said and both sides have a plausible sequence of events. I do think that the Houthis are lying about the strike being successful but it's very possible that they launched a missile. It's also possible that they are lying about doing so since they want to intimidate the UAE. It's also possible that they really did launch a missile but it missed, failed or got shot down, and the UAE is keeping quite. Without proof of either sides claims it's not really easy to tell, but all of the options are at least possible. 

In the end though, it doesn't really matter either way. The fact that the Houthis are capable of launching such an attack is more concerning than if they have actually tried to do so. It's fairly clear that the situation in Yemen is out of control and that the Saudis really need to do something to change that, along with their allies. Sooner or later one of these missiles is going to get past their defenses and hit something important. It might not be the nuclear power plant but it could still be a critical incident that kills a lot of people. 

Of course the elephant in the room is Iran. The Saudis are claiming that the Iranians are providing these missiles and I tend to believe them. The Yemenis had Scud launchers before the war but they were a priority target and I am guessing the vast majority of them have been either destroyed or used up. The Iranians are likely providing these weapons to the rebels as part of their proxy war against the Saudis. 

The question is how? The Saudis have a large and effective blockade set up against Yemen to the point that even critical food aid doesn't get in. Yemenis are starving in the streets but somehow these missiles are getting in? There must be a major smuggling operation going on if that is the case and the Saudis need to get that under control as soon as possible. If not this threat is only going to get worse over time. It might not end up with a Chernobyl in the UAE but no good will come from it...