Iran has been rocked by a wave of anti-government protests. BBC. The protests began against high prices but have expanded to include dissatisfaction with the government and clerical rule. A small number of people were arrested in the capital of Tehran and the protests began in the 2nd largest city in Iran, Mashad. Protests have rapidly spread to other cities. Protesters are critical of bad behavior of Iran's clerics also protested the deployment of Iranian troops to Syria, Lebanon and Palestine. It is unclear how extensive these protests are with reports in various cities showing numbers up to 1000.
The White House and State Department has condemned Iran's response to these protests and is supporting the protesters. They have condemned the arrests. It is possible that the reaction to these protests could endanger the nuclear deal put into place by the former US president, Barack Obama.
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani. BBC/AFP.
My Comment:
Something to watch. I don't expect much from these protests but it is always possible that this could bring down the Iranian government. Nobody expected that the Arab Spring protests would take down so many governments and cause so many wars, but it happened anyways. At this point it could go that way, or it could be harshly put down or the Iranians could offer concessions.
Still, we have been down this road before. Iran was rocked by major protests in the wake of the Arab Spring but they were put down by the Iranian government in 2011 and there were protests in 2009. Both of those protests failed and many protesters were arrested.
I think there is a major difference this time around. We have a new president now. Though Obama publicly condemned Iran's harsh put down of the former protests, he essentially supported the Iranian government. His major goal was better relations with Iran and wanted the nuclear deal to be part of his legacy. He was willing to look the other way if it meant getting what he wanted. Even if it meant that a lot of protesters got arrested.
Donald Trump has different priorities. Trump doesn't want to support Iran and he is looking for any reason he can get to tear up the Iran nuclear deal. Trump's government publicly supports the protesters and may be doing stuff behind the scenes to help them as well. That could be the difference between success and failure.
Still, I am not 100% sure that doing so is a good idea. Though Iran is a state sponsor of terrorism and a US enemy, removing them from power, even via these protests, could have a major impact. We supported the protesters and rebels in Syria and it led to two huge wars, the rise of ISIS and the refugee crisis. The same thing could happen in Iran. That could cause massive problems in the long term.
On the other hand, Iran is a destabilizing force in the region. They are funding the wars in Syria and Yemen and support terror groups like Hezbollah (who were also supported by Barack Obama). Getting rid of their influence would likely result in a safer and more stable Middle East. Doing so would also help our Sunni allies in the region, including Saudi Arabia.
Either way though, it's going to depend on the protesters and the Iranian government. If they are able to crack down effectively than the whole discussion is moot. Since they have done so twice in the past few years it is likely that they will be able to do so again. Anger over Iran's wars and their strict religious laws might be enough to change the tide. We will just have to wait and see.
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