Saturday, September 2, 2017

Fantasy football 2017 draft recap!


And now for something completely different! It's fantasy football season again and like last year I thought I would post my draft recap. Last year wasn't that great for me even though I thought I had a decent draft. Losing Danny Woodhead was a huge blow and Brandon Marshall was not worth the price I paid for him. So despite having David Johnson, my team only scored 5 wins during the season with two more during the consolation playoffs. I ended up in 8th place, which is pretty horrible, so I am hoping for redemption this year.

This year the league is doing something a bit different. It's a long running league and we wanted to change things up this year. So, for the first time ever, I drafted in a two QB league. It was a strange experience as people drafted QB's way earlier than normally. I think I did ok with my team but I wonder if I shouldn't have reached for a QB sooner? Without experience drafting in a two QB league it's hard to tell if this team will work or not.

I'm going to go through each pick and tell you what I was thinking, starting with the 1st round. I picked right in the middle this year with pick number 5 which is unusual since I tend to either be near the back end or the front.

ROUND 1: LeSean McCoy. I was bound and determined to get a RB in the first round. Doing so last year got me David Johnson, one of the few bright spots on my team in 2016. I did have to pass up some major talent at WR to do so, and, as it turns out, had to pass up on the two top QB's as well. I was expecting the former but not the latter at all. Is McCoy worth it? I sure hope so, but he has been rock solid in the past and even at 29 I still expect him to do well.

ROUND 2: Melvin Gordon. I was always intending to go RB/RB for the first two rounds but I had no idea that Gordon was going to fall to me. He was the #7 RB in the league last year under our scoring system and he would have been even better had he not injured his hip during the tail end of the season. I think this was a direct consequence of the two QB format because both Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady went before Gordon. That's probably defensible in this format but it let me get two stacked RB's... who given my fantasy football history will probably get injured in week one. Still, I'm ecstatic that Gordon fell to me.

ROUND 3: T.Y. Hilton. I briefly considered going RBx3 but I just couldn't leave someone like Hilton on the board. Even though he has QB problems without Andrew Luck, he's still a very solid WR1. Not a very exciting pick, but I think he's a safe one. He doesn't have the stud potential but I think he's about as safe of a pick as I could have gotten here.

ROUND 4: Larry Fitzgerald. Speaking of safe picks, I went with Fitzgerald in the 4th round. I didn't want to reach for a QB so quickly and I wanted someone fairly reliable as WR2. Fitz is a good player for PPR and though he is old, he's still good in PPR leagues.

ROUND 5: Travis Kelce. I reached for a TE this year because last year I waited way too long to pick one. That really hurt my team last year and having a decent TE might have been enough to drag my team out of mediocrity. I skipped over Jordan Reed because of injury concerns but I would have picked him if Kelce and Greg Olsen were gone. I just felt it was very important for me to get a TE early this year. Kelce was the #1 TE last year and if it wasn't for the return of Gronk, he'd be a lock for that again this year. I think that drafting him a bit early was totally justified and will correct an obvious mistake I made last year.

ROUND 6: Mark Ingram. I'm conflicted about this pick. Ingram has been rock solid for quite some time and is a decent enough RB. He was a top 10 RB last year, making my team have three top ten RB's from last year. So why am I not more enthusiastic? Because Adrian Peterson was picked up by the Saints as well. Though Peterson is past his prime, I worry that the Saints backfield could end up as a committee, and I doubt there is enough running to go around for both Ingram and Peterson... And neither is likely to get much use in the passing game. Still, as a flex player Ingram has quite a bit of upside, so it's not like there isn't potential here.

ROUND 7: Kirk Cousins. At about this point I realized that QB's were going like hotcakes and I had nothing yet. It wasn't just the a-listers that were going fast like Rodgers and Brady. At this point a lot of the 2nd tier guys, like Cam Newton and Russel Wilson were gone too. I needed a QB and Cousins fit the bill. He was number 5 in points at the position last year so I thought that I needed to move on him before the next round because he wasn't going to last.

ROUND 8: Marcus Mariota. My pick of Cousins seems to have caused a run on QB's. After my pick, four other QB's went off the board, including Dak Prescot who I was looking at for QB2. Mariota was about the best I could have gotten, though I am kicking myself for forgetting about Philip Rivers. Mariota has the advantage of being a rushing QB though and I am happy with picking him, even though I had a soft spot for my QB from last year.

ROUND 9: Brandon Marshall. Marshall was a huge bust in 2016 and a major reason why my team failed last year. So why go back to him this year? In short, because he's not a Jet anymore. Eli Manning is better than the QB's he had at the Jets and he has Odell Beckham to distract defenses. I think he's due for a bounce back, even if he won't be the stud I was expecting him to be in 2016. I don't think I would have picked him in round 6 where ESPN has him ranked but as a round 9 flier? Yes please.

ROUND 10: Tereance West. Not an exciting pick at all, but he's technically the lead RB in Baltimore and that is what I was looking for at this point in the draft. He was stuck in a committee last year but it doesn't appear that he has much competition this year as Danny Woodhead is a receiving back. I hope he will be a good bye week fill in and I don't expect to need him for much else.

ROUND 11: Chris Hogan. I'm not so sure about this pick. I went with Hogan largely because he has Tom Brady throwing to him and because Julian Edelman is out for the season. Someone has to be WR2 on that squad and it very might well be Hogan. I am just worried that it might instead be Danny Amendola and the fact that Ron Gronkowski is back in the mix as well...

ROUNDS 12 & 14: Darren Sproles and Chris Thompson. Same thought process with both of these backs. I wanted more RB depth and all that was available were 3rd down and receiving backs. Both Sproles and Thompson fit that role nicely and are both decent in PPR. I see these guys as either a bye week fill ins or trade bait.

ROUND 13: Vikings D/ST. I almost never pick a D/ST in anything but the last round, but since the format is two QB, I broke my own rule. D/ST's were flying off the board and I wanted one. I think this turned out to be a mistake because another great D/ST, the Cardinals, was still on the board by round 14 and actually lasted until round 15. There weren't a lot of good players left in round 13, but I think I probably could have waited until a later round. Rookie mistake and one I shouldn't have fallen for. Indeed, only one D/ST went off the boards between rounds 13 and 15 and that was the Giants...

ROUND 15: Rishard Mathews. I am kinda surprised that Mathews was this far down in the ranks. He was a top 25 receiver last year and though the Titans signed Erik Decker, he's still a pretty good option. For a late round pick, I think this is about as good as you can expect.

ROUND 16: Jack Doyle. A late round TE pick and a fairly safe one at that. He's a teams top TE and a decent pass catcher. I don't think I will be starting him anytime soon, but given the option of picking him or someone's backup or reaching for a kicker, I think I made the right choice.

ROUND 17: Alvin Kamara. Just a late round handcuff for Mark Ingram. He also might fill the same PPR role as Sproles and Thompson so he might end up getting some use in the passing game which might make him worth hanging onto.

ROUND 18: Does anyone really care who my kicker is? I autopicked for this round as I stream kickers anyways. Ended up with Matt Prater.

So, am I happy with my team this year? Sure. Does that mean I will have a good season? History tells me no. My greatest concern is injuries. Losing Danny Woodhead killed me last season and I worry that even with three top 10 RB's that I might still end up having the same thing happen again. I also think that there is a bit of a lack of depth at WR. My two starters are both solid but boring picks and I don't think I have anyone that has potential to be a stud WR.

On the other hand I think both my QB's are solid and I won't have the horrible problems I had last year at TE. My RB depth is very deep and should remain so if the injury bug stays away. I think I have a chance at greatness this year or, at the very least, a winning regular season record. At this point, that's my main goal.

As for fantasy football, I haven't decided if I will continue to update the season on here. I did for awhile last year but as my team fell apart it became a lot less fun. So if you don't see anymore posts about fantasy football this year, you know what happened!

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