Roy Moore defeats Luther Strange in Alabama Senate primary.

Roy Moore at a campaign rally. New York Times/Getty. 

National news media has called the race between Roy Moore and Luther Strange in the Alabama GOP Senate primary. This isn't surprising as Moore had been polling far ahead of Strange for quite some time. Moore is an outsider candidate while Strange was the incumbent who had the support of the establishment and President Trump. 

Indeed, Trump went all out for Strange, which puzzled many of his supporters. It made sense to me though. Why? For one, Strange was very loyal personally to Donald Trump and more than anything else Trump loves the people that are loyal to him. Even though Strange is more of a mainline conservative he has supported Trump in the Senate so it's no surprise that he wanted him to win.

I think there are other considerations as well. Roy Moore strikes me as a Rand Paul/Ted Cruz type. He's the kind of guy that will stick to his guns no matter what. In theory that's a great thing and something that a lot of Republicans want. But it has a major downside. When someone votes on principal and principal alone we get what we had with the Obamacare repeal. One or two senators who won't compromise so we end up with the status quo which is considerably worse than the compromise would have been. 

There is also concern that Moore might lose in the full senate race against the Democrats. I think that is pretty far fetched. Alabama is about as red as a red state can get so I seriously doubt that he will lose. But I think Strange probably would have been a safer bet. 

The New York Times makes it sound like this is a huge defeat for Donald Trump, but I don't really think it is. Sure, it's a defeat but not a damaging one. Trump hedged enough during his endorsement campaign for Strange and he acknowledged that he would support Moore if he won. He got a little egg on his face but not nearly as much as the establishment has gotten. Unlike Trump, they went all in, pouring money into the race. 

It does show the limit of Trump's endorsements though. The voters are still very angry and don't really care who Trump endorses if he's going to endorse an incumbent. The GOP base is still furious that the Senate has done almost nothing despite holding a majority and have proven that even if Trump supports one of them they aren't going along with it. 

I think this is a major warning to incumbent GOP members of congress. If you are an incumbent, there is a good chance of you getting primaried if you don't get anything done. Roy Moore shows that an insurgent candidate can and will win against you.

I think that this should put a fire under the asses of congress to actually get things done. Though they have failed at repealing Obamacare they could and should do other things that could win back the GOP base. Something as simple as funding Donald Trump's wall would go a long way to protecting them.

But I doubt they will do so. Most members of congress are neocons who don't support Donald Trump's agenda and they are simply trying to weather the storm. I still don't think they realize how dangerous the GOP base is. If the election of Donald Trump was the canary in the coal mine, the election of Roy Moore is a miner running around screaming "GAS!! GAS!! RUN FOR YOUR LIVES!". But I doubt the GOP will listen and pretty soon those that don't will be out of office.