Syria loses last stronghold in Idlib province to al-Nusra militants. Reuters.

Al-Nusra fighters near the city of Ariha. Nice trigger discipline. Reuters.

Syrian forces have lost Ariha, the last outpost in Idlib province, to the Army of Conquest, lead by the al-Qaeda linked al-Nusra front. Reuters. The al-Nusra fighters took several check-posts near the city and had engaged the Syrians in the city. The Syrians contested the city but then withdrew. The defeat is part of a string of defeats the Syrians have faced, including losing the city of Idlib to al-Nusra and the city of Palmyra to ISIS. The rebels claimed that the large numbers of American made TOW missiles turned the tide of the battle. With the fall of Ariha, al-Nusra is closer to reaching the Syria/Turkey border. 

My Comment:

Al-Nusra is on the march again. And to be clear the so called Army of Conquest or Conquest Army or Jaish al Fateh, or whatever you want to call it is, for all intents and purposes, al-Nusra. And al-Nusra is al-Qaeda's arm in Syria. There aren't really any secular rebel groups left in Syria and none in the Army of Conquest. 

And it is very disturbing to me that Turkey and Saudi Arabia are helping al-Nusra. Though al-Nusra isn't as bad as ISIS, they are still a terrorist organization. Helping them is helping terrorism. Sure, Assad is bad, but the people he is fighting are worse. And I have heard rumors that Turkey is going to enforce a no-fly zone over Syria. 

It seems clear that even if they don't take that step, the Syrian regime is doomed. That is very bad news for everyone that isn't Turkey and Saudi Arabia. Should al-Nusra win, then they will be the de-facto government of Syria. They have made some empty gestures of being inclusive, but in the end, I doubt they will follow through. And that is assuming that they can hold onto power. ISIS has a decent chance of taking the country as well, or at the very least, contesting it after the regime falls.

And life after Assad will not be good for anyone that is a non-Sunni Muslims. Shia, Alawites, Druse, and Christians will all face, at the very least, discrimination. More likely, they will be killed or forced to flee. That will add into the huge refugee crisis that the Syrian Civil War has created. And it's not like the Sunni's will be treated any better. At best they will have the same despotic regime that they had under Assad. But now instead of a secular regime, they will have an Islamic one, just like Saudi Arabia. I hardly think that is an improvement. 

As for the war itself, I guess it is possible that Assad could hold on for awhile. It seems like Syria is abandoning some parts of the country that have been isolated. Some, like Deir-ez-Zor, have been isolated for most of the war. Doing so would be a trade off. They would be able to concentrate their forces and shorten their supply lines, which would be a huge help. But they would also be abandoning people, arms and equipment to the enemy. And it would also be an admission that the rebels are winning. 

If the rumors of a no-fly zone are true though, it seems very unlikely that Assad could survive. Air power has been keeping the regime in the war for quite some time. Not only would they lose the obvious advantages that airstrikes give, they would also lose the ability to resupply by air. They may also come under air attack as well, which would completely switch the advantage away from the regime. 

My prediction is that the regimes days are numbered. What comes next is anyone's guess.