Friday, May 8, 2015

Turkey and Saudi Arabia are sending help to the rebels to overthrow Assad in Syria. Yahoo/AP.

Assad with his supporters. Yahoo/Reuters

Turkey and Saudi Arabia have agreed to send support to anti-Assad rebels in Syria, including radical Islamist groups. Yahoo/AP. The two countries have been at odds for years over what to do about Assad, but they have been united by perceived inaction by the United States. The act comes as a new rebel alliance, the Army of Conquest, which includes Al-Qaeda's affiliate, al-Nusra, has had major success against the regime.  The move is seen as another front in the proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Syria is a major ally of Iran, and Iran's Hezbollah militia has been very active in defending Syria from the rebels. Turkey claims that it will not work with al-Nusra but unlike ISIS, they do not consider them a security threat. However, both Saudi Arabia and Turkey will support Ahar al-Sham, which has been designated a terrorist group by the United States. Turkey has gone so far to say that the United States has no plan for Syria.

My Comment:
I'll admit that Turkey is right that America has no plan in Syria. We have waffled, hemmed and hawed and used half measures. We threatened war against Syria awhile back but now we spend most of our time bombing the enemies of Assad, including Al-Nusra and ISIS. We are, for all intents and purposes, on the same side as Assad, but our official policy is that he should still be overthrown. It almost seems like our actions there are random.

But no plan may be better then a bad plan, and this plan that Turkey and Saudi Arabia is terrible. I have said before that there are three groups you never deal with. Radical Islamists like Al-Nusra and Ahar al-Sham top the list. (For the record the other two are communists and national socialists/Nazis). And it is clear to me that both Turkey and Saudi Arabia are more then willing to work with these radicals. 

Although Turkey and Saudi Arabia say that they will not be helping the al-Nusra Front, for all intents and purposes they are. The Army of Conquest (great name by the way) is essentially led by al-Nusra and other Islamic groups. From what I understand the Army of Conquest is largely radical Muslims that occasionally work with the few secular groups left. The only reason they have success is that they are supporting each other and sharing supplies and weapons. If you were to support any of the groups in the alliance, you will be supporting al-Nusra. Technically you would be doing it indirectly, but the result is the same as if you did it directly.  

Naturally this new policy will have massive consequences. First of all, getting rid of Assad at this point isn't really desirable, from an American standpoint at least. The days when he was the greater evil died with the birth of ISIS and al-Nusra. He is still an evil dictator of course, but even evil dictators are better then radical Islam. As bad as he is, he isn't throwing gay people off of roofs or enslaving women. I understand that Turkey and Saudi Arabia have vastly different interests then I have though, so I am guessing that this isn't much of a concern for them.  

Second, what happens if the Army of Conquest lives up to their name and wins? Though I think they would treat the Alawites better then ISIS would, they would still discriminate against them. Anyone that had any connection with the regime would probably be purged and many civilians would be killed and or displaced. Chaos would reign as a new government would struggle to form.

And that new government would be a radical Islamic one, just like ISIS. Hell, it might be ISIS. After all, when Assad falls, there will be a huge power vacuum. If there is one thing that the past few years have proven conclusively it is that radical Islam loves a vacuum. ISIS could easily wrest power from the Army of Conquest. And even if they don't you are just exchanging one radical Islamic group with another. Al-Nusra might be slightly less evil then ISIS, but they are not a group that should be allowed to govern a country. 

Of course the other option is that Syria just keeps its civil war. Even with Assad gone, peace will not come. There are so many factions fighting each other it seems unlikely that a lasting peace is even possible. Al-Nusra will fight ISIS, which will fight the Kurds, who could fight the Turks and the United States will probably be left to pick up the pieces. Or let the whole region burn even worse then it is now. 

Finally, I think it is time for the United States to re-evaluate our alliances with Saudi Arabia and especially Turkey. As someone who is partially Greek, I am biased against Turkey, but I have a real problem with a NATO member giving money and support to one Islamic group that we consider terrorists and indirectly supporting a group that has its origins as an Al-Qaeda affiliate. As far as I am concerned, nobody should work with a rebel group that flies the same black flag that the architects of the 9/11 attacks fly let alone one of our "friends" in the region. 

As for the Saudis, it's clear that their interest is in containing Iran. I share that interest but giving help to radical Islamists is not the way to do so. Of course Saudi Arabia has a long history of training terrorists and practically invented radical Islam, but since they don't have oil and are opposed to Iran, we tolerate them. That isn't going to change in the future, but with friends like these, who needs enemies? 

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