A car bomb exploding in Kobani. -CNN/Getty
A major airstrike, targeting senior ISIS leaders, including Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, occurred in Iraq this weekend. -CNN. The airstrike targeted a convoy of 10 armed trucks that had gathered near the city of Mosul. The United States military confirmed the strikes but could not confirm that al-Baghdadi was injured or killed. Other media have reported that he was critically injured.
Reuters is reporting that at least 50 people were taken to the morgue after the airstrike. There is also a report from the Saudi owned al-Arabiya that an additional airstrike in the Iraqi town of al-Qaim may have been the one to target Baghdadi. ISIS has recently changed tactics to avoid coalition airstrikes, and have stuck to lower profile vehicles and have avoided gatherings.
My Comment:
This is a fairly confusing situation and at this point I doubt anyone other then ISIS knows if al-Baghdadi is alive, dead or injured. The fog of war strikes again. If it is true that he is dead, then it is very good news for the fight against ISIS. Baghdadi is the self-proclaimed Caliph of the Islamic State and his death would be a huge blow to the organization. He has a major role in planning operations and is the main figurehead for the group. His death would be the first major defeat for ISIS and would show the members of ISIS that nobody is safe.
If he survives his wounds or wasn't injured in the attack then that is a bad thing for the west. ISIS already has an air of invincibility around it. False reports of Baghdadi's death would only bolster that image. Even if he is slightly or moderately wounded it helps with his image.
The strategy to target leadership is a good one, but one that could have consequences. Obviously, ISIS needs commanders to both manage and command the war and also to oversee the day to day running of their "state". If these leaders die then the ability of ISIS to both fight a war and manage their territory will be greatly diminished and may even halt or reverse their offensive. Of course, killing the leaders of ISIS could lead to retaliation from the terror group. Even though ISIS has called for lone wolf attacks before, the calls could reach more people if Baghdadi dies. Still, any threats of terrorism do not outweigh the benefits of killing him and his fellow leaders.
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