South Korean troops patrol near the DMZ. Yahoo/AP
For the second time in 10 days North and South Korea have exchanged fire. Yahoo/AP. A patrol of 10 North Korean soldiers approached the border when the South Koreans broadcast warnings. When those warnings went unheeded, both sides opened fire. The shootout lasted 10 minutes but nobody got hit. The shootout comes on the heels of another incident on October 10th where North Koreans fired at the south when activists sent anti-regime leaflets via balloon to the north. Both incidents, along with a naval incident on the 7th, comes after a major diplomatic breakthrough where major figures in the North Korean regime met with South Korean officials.
My Comment:
North Korea is the master of mixed messages. On the one hand they have all these low intensity but potentially deadly border incidents. They aren't really that serious but they do serve as a reminder that the North and South are technically still at war. On the other hand they just had a major diplomatic push for cooperation with the South. It doesn't make any sense to me to negotiate when your forces are still skirmishing with the South, but North Korea hardly strikes me as a rational state. They have their own way of thinking and it is very hard for me to understand it.
As for the chances of a wider war breaking out, I give it almost no chance. North Korea knows it's military is completely outgunned by the South Koreans alone, not to mention the forces the United States can bring to bare. The North could inflict some heavy damage, especially to Seoul, but they would lose and lose hard in any war. These skirmishes are just that and I don't think you can draw any conclusions that point to full scale war. The North just wants leverage and these skirmishes give them a tiny bit.
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