Map of the region with Venezuela's claims on Guyana. Stratfor.
Venezuela may be considering invading Guyana to press it's territorial claims on the country. Stratfor. Venezuela claims all of Guyana's territory west of the Essequibo River and Brazilian intelligence claims that Venezuela is considering claiming the territory before the International Court of Justice rules on the dispute. Doing so would be risky for Venezuela due to the countries economic situation and how the international community would react. However it might also help Caracas domestically and could be a bargaining chip to use against the United States. Venezuela is much more powerful than Guyana and would likely be able to conquer the country by use of their air force.
My Comment:
On the face of it, this seems like a ridiculous story. Though Venezuela could probably conquer western Guyana, doing so would have massive consequences for the country. For one thing it would infuriate all of its neighbors and it's not like Venezuela has that many allies. I doubt Cuba would help that much and everyone else is too far away. It will also anger the United States and could involve the UK and other Commonwealth nations due to the fact that Guyana is a member.
It would also have major economic consequences for Venezuela as well. They are an economic basket-case as it is and funding a major invasion is not what they need. There would almost certainly be sanctions for their invasion with their oil industry cut off from the rest of the world. Those economic concerns would be offset by whatever loot they could get from Guyana, but I doubt it would be enough. That's the best case scenario assuming an effective invasion and nobody going to war to defend Guyana.
But it's not like there wouldn't be benefits for Venezuela though. It seems very clear that they could take the territory with a minimum of effort. Guyana doesn't have a strong military. They have troops but no aircraft to speak of and very little anti-air. Plus they would have a very tough time deploying troops and once Venezuela took their possessions, they would not be able to get them back without help. They could take over the Western part of the country easily despite whatever consequences for their actions would be.
Taking Venezuela would also secure their claims, even as it would make them an international pariah. They don't want the court to rule against them and if they take the territory the whole discussion is moot. They would be unlikely to lose the territory unless someone invades them or they give it up voluntarily.
There is also the argument that invading Guyana could calm down the anti-government feeling in Venezuela. In theory giving the country a common enemy could work, but I don't know how it would work in reality. My guess is that the people of Venezuela would see through it and would be furious that the government that can't even feed it's people is off invading their neighbors.
It's also very unclear if anyone would actually deploy troops to defend Guyana. The local governments might but the difficulty in deploying them might give them pause. Plus they might not want a war right now given how unstable some of those countries are. Without help they might not be able to defend them effectively. Venezuela has about 100,000 troops plus 10,000 or so Cuban deployed their as well. Plus they have a modern airforce made up of a small number of F-16's and SU-30's.
America, of course, could completely annihilate Venezuela's military and the Commonwealth nations could do so as well. The question is if they would. The UK is unlikely to do so due to the weakness of their military and the fact that they have no desire for war. As for the United States it could go either way. A war with Venezuela isn't even on the American public's radar right now and I doubt many people want it. We are already war-weary after our wars in Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria and nobody really wants more war.
Plus we have other considerations as well. We are much more concerned with North Korea right now and aren't looking to pick a fight with anyone else. Our operations in Afghanistan are picking up as well and we risk losing the war if we don't fight there. Given our current deployments and threats, Guyana seems like a very low priority. And given how opposed to our president the Democratic Party is, I doubt they will give Donald Trump war authorization just on principle alone, assuming he would even want to go to war, which is no sure thing.
Still, I don't think Venezuela should risk such a war. They can't count on nobody joining the war on Guyana's behalf. If America does they are done and if the UK and/or other Commonwealth nations do they are in deep trouble. Even their local opponents could cause quite a bit of damage to the Venezuelan military and economy. There is a decent chance that nobody would do anything, after all that's what happened in Crimea, but I don't think they can count on that.
We also have to consider that these are only rumors at this point. Venezuela may really be considering war but that doesn't mean they will actually do it. Indeed, we aren't even sure if the rumors are correct. They may be way more concerned about domestic issues and don't want to rock the boat.
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