As for scoring, I will give myself full credit for any prediction that was completely right. I will give half credit for predictions that were partially right and zero credit if I was completely wrong. I gave my predictions in percentages with a 100% being a sure thing and 0% being impossible with a 50% chance being a toss up. I apologize in advance if my math is bad, if I was better at math I'd be a scientist, not a blogger.
I'm just going to copy past the old post and type my answers in red text.
PRESIDENTIAL POLITICS: 16/22
-Donald Trump will be inaugurated on January 20th without incident. 90% Correct
-There will be some controversy, real or imagined, that will be pushed by the media in the wake of the inauguration. 99% Correct, the inauguration crowd size was the years first stupid controversy
-I won't be able to watch the inauguration. 66% Wrong! I was able to watch it.
-There will be some kind of terror incident or civil disruption on the inauguration. 5% Half Credit. There were widespread protests and some minor violence. That being said it wasn't very bad.
-Some other kind of disruption will happen during the inauguration (IRL trolling or something similar) 5% Correct, the actual inauguration went off fine. 3.5/5
-Donald Trump will have some preliminary work done on the wall (not counting the border that already exists). 85% Correct, prototypes have been erected.
-Trump will also push through some action on immigration before the year is out. 99% Correct, DACA for one, travel bans
-Trump will begin deportations, in addition to deportations that are happening now. 80% Correct
-Trump will reverse the Obama administration rules on immigration from Muslim countries and will overhaul the refugee system. 80% Correct
-In addition, Trump will at least temporarily block immigration from countries like Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan. 66% Correct
-Trump will not take any action on immigration, breaking his campaign promises. 1% Correct
6/6
-After being confirmed, Jeff Sessions will reopen the investigation into Hillary Clinton's e-mail server and the Clinton foundation. 75% Wrong, at least publically
-Someone in the Clinton camp will be arrested before the year is out (Clinton family or someone high up in her campaign, like John Podesta or Huma Abedin.). 66% Again, wrong as far as we know. Arrests look likely though.
-Barack Obama will pardon Hillary Clinton and/or himself before his term is up. 66% Wrong
-Wikileaks will release more information damaging to the Clintons, Barack Obama, or the Democratic Party. 75% Wrong again
0/4
-Donald Trump will nominate a conservative SCOTUS nominee, who will be confirmed. 75% Correct, Neil Gorsuch
-There will be major action against gun control laws. Expect 50 state concealed carry with reciprocity. 90% Half credit. It's passed the house but hasn't been signed into law yet. Same with the silencer acts.
-All of Obama's executive orders on gun control will be repealed. 85% Not sure if I should give half or full credit here since Trump did repeal most of them, but I haven't been able to tell if he has gotten all of them. I will give myself half credit for now.
2.5/3
-The media will continue the hysterical coverage of Donald Trump. 66% Correct
-There will be a brief honeymoon period between the media and Trump. 33% Correct
-Trump will continue to bypass the traditional media and will use outlets like Twitter and more friendly right wing publications to reach the public. 95% Correct
-Barack Obama will not go quietly into the night and will be the most politically active former president in recent memory. 90% Very correct to the point where he's practically a 2nd president.
4/4
CULTURE: 12/15
-Social Justice will remain the core of the left in the United States. 75% Correct
-The culture will shift to the point where Social Justice will be a punchline. 60% I'd say it is correct, but others might disagree. I know anecdotally that I have heard a lot of people speak out about it.
-Shaming campaigns will continue unabated but will be less effective when launched by the left and more effective when launched by the right. 75% Half credit. I was right about it being way more effective by right wing sources, such as the NFL boycott, but left wing shaming campaigns still seem to be strong. 2.5/3
-Movies and TV will still continue to push SJ and diversity for the sake of diversity, but more films like Ghostbusters will fail. 95% Correct. MOTHER! was a big one and some say this is why Star Wars The Last Jedi did worse.
-A major liberal MSM outlet will go out of business. 66% Wrong.
-The media will be held accountable, legally, for the lies they used during the presidential campaign. 20% Correct, they faced no legal consequences so far.
2/3
-Twitter will start banning conservatives from their platform including celebrities and politicians. 75% Correct
-Twitter will ban Donald Trump himself. 66% Half credit. His account was banned by a disgruntled employee temporary.
-Twitter will ban me personally, or will shadowban me again. 40% Correct, as far as I can tell
-Facebook will have controversy as well, but will be seen as more tolerate of conservative voices then Twitter. 90% Correct.
3.5/4
-The MSM will stop talking about fake news after the term has been redirected against them. 90% A reduction, but they still do so. Half Credit
-The MSM will continue to lie in such a way that even the most basic of fact checking or looking at primary sources will prove them wrong. 100% Correct
-The tone on US/Russia relations will remain hysterical even after the inauguration. 66% So very correct...
2.5/3
-Race relations will improve in 2017. 75% Half correct. Seems like status quo ante.
-Black Lives Matter will lose quite a bit of influence. 60% Correct. They seem like a spent force when it comes to protest and has been overshadowed by Antifa.
1.5/2
WAR/FOREIGN RELATIONS: 24.5/31
-ISIS will still exist as a terrorist group and as a state that controls territory by the end of 2017. 90% Correct
-ISIS will lose Mosul in Iraq before the end of the year. 85% Correct
-ISIS will not lose Mosul until Fall or Winter of this year. 75% Wrong, it fell in July
-ISIS will still hold some small territory in Iraq by the end of the year. 85% Correct but just barely. No major towns or cities but they still hold some areas.
-The Mosul Dam will collapse and render all the rest of these predictions moot and will end the lives of hundreds of thousands of people. 25% Correct
4/5
-The Syrian cease fire put into place in December will hold and peace talks will be successful in ending the war between the non-Jihadist rebels and Syrian regime. 60% Wrong
-Al-Nusra and ISIS will continue fighting regardless. 99% Correct
-ISIS will still hold Raqqa by the end of the year. 75% Wrong, Raqqa fell in October
-ISIS will lose even more territory in 2017 then they did in 2016. 70% Very much so
2/4
-US/Russian relations will immediately recover after Trump's inauguration. 99% Wrong, unfortunately. There was a recovery but not enough for me to say anything other than this was completely wrong
-The US and Russia will begin joint military operations in Syria. 75% Half credit. We cooperated but haven't done anything formal
-No actual evidence of Russia hacking the election or being responsible for the John Podesta and DNC leaks will ever be found. 95% Correct
-Russia will make no new moves in Eastern Europe and it will be status quo ante in Ukraine. 90% Mostly correct, with the exception that we are selling weapons to Ukraine. Half credit.
2/5
-ISIS will continue to conduct major terror attacks throughout the world. 100% Correct
-There will be another major terror attack in Europe that kills at least 10+ people (The Istanbul attack on New Years Eve will be tossed out for this and the following predictions since it's only technically Europe and it happened before this post). 99% Correct
-There will be another major terror attack in Europe that kills and wounds more then 100 people. 90% Correct. Both the Manchester bombing and the Barcelona attacks count
-There will be a terror attack in Europe that will kill and wound more then 1000 people. 40% Correct
4/4
-There will be a major terror attack in the United States that kills 10+ people. 90% Debatable. If you consider the Las Vegas and Texas Church attacks to be politically motivated then yes. If not, than no but just barely. I'm going with full credit because I believe that the Texas attack counts
-There will be a major terror attack in the US that kills and wounds more then 100 people. 66% Half credit. I still believe that Las Vegas was politically motivated in some way but without proof I can't give full credit
-There will be a terror attack in the US that kills and wounds more then 1000 people. 20% Correct, though the Vegas incident came too close for comfort
-Canada will experience a terror attack. 66% Correct, the Edmonton attack.
3.5/4
-Lone wolf attacks by those inspired by ISIS will continue frequently in 2017. 95% Correct
-Ramadan will be a bloody mess again this year with at least one major terror attack and several lone wolf attacks inspired by ISIS. 90% Very correct
-Al-Qaeda will continue to be largely irrelevant and will not pull off a major terror attack in Europe or the United States. 75% Correct
-ISIS will attempt an assassination of a major political or religious figure in Europe or North America.75% Yes, the plot against UK Prime Minster Theresa May
-There will be at least one non-Jihadist related terror attack in the United States in 2017. 90% Correct, several sadly
5/5
-Right wing populism will continue to grow in Europe and will result in more elections for right wingers there. 80% Correct
1/1
-Relations with China will continue to cool. 75% Wrong, Trump seems to have a good relationship with President Xi.
-North Korea will test another nuclear weapon. 85% Correct
-NATO will continue to exist and member states will start to contribute more. 66% Correct
3/3
TOTAL 52.5/68 77%
Not a great score if I am honest. Last year I managed 83% correct. What killed me this year was generally underestimated how quickly ISIS was going to fall. I figured they would still be holding on in Iraq and Syria but they have already been largely defeated. I wasn't optimistic enough that having Trump on board would change things.
I was also wrong about us getting alone better with Russia. Though we have occasionally cooperated, relations are still chilly to say the least. I was naive in expecting that the damage Barack Obama and the Democratic Party did with our relationship could be undone quickly.
I do think that I was very right about terrorism and presidential politics. I was unfortunately very correct about the amount of terror attacks we would suffer and if anything I wasn't pessimistic enough...
I also want to say that some stuff is still up in the air. I really think that things are moving rapidly and we may soon see action against Obama administration officials and Clinton campaign members. Things could rapidly change that would make my predictions wrong or just a few months early.
I always enjoy doing these things and I expect to write another post on New Years Day or shortly after. Expect predictions for 2018 very soon!
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