Ukraine is spending $130 million a month fighting rebels. -IBT

A rebel fighter standing on a tank. IBT/Reuters

Ukraine is spending $130 million a month fighting the insurgency. -IBT Despite international bailouts the high cost of the war is threatening the Ukrainian economy. The economy has shrunk by 5% and Ukraine is expecting GDP to drop by 6.5%

My Comment:

This obviously isn't sustainable for Ukraine. They were in horrible financial shape before the revolution and civil war, now they are in especially dire straits. What they need is cash and lots of it. But who is going to give it to them? The EU has their own financial problems and I doubt the United States population would approve of a bailout. 

Putin knows this and I think this, along with my previous post about how natural gas will pressure Ukraine even further, goes a long way in explaining his sudden out of character conciliatory approach. He's playing the long game and he knows that all he needs to do is wait. His position grows stronger as Ukraine goes further and further into debt. 

ISIS rules captured territory with an iron fist. Yahoo/Reuters.

More Shiite volunteers. Yahoo/Reuters

ISIS rules captured Iraqi territory with terror and intimidation. Yahoo/Reuters. When ISIS captured the city of al-Alam, they kidnapped 30 local families and threatened them. Resistance ceased afterwards. ISIS is presumed to only have 20,000 fighters but intimidation and fear, as well as more then a little help from, allied Sunni and Baathist militias, enable them to control the large swaths of territory. Towns that resist ISIS are punished by artillery and mortar fire. Residents are allowed to "repent" and receive a sheet of paper stating that they are not to be harmed.

My Comment:

More bad news from Iraq. It's clear to me that the reason ISIS has been so successful in Iraq and Syria is because they have a very effective propaganda machine. Their actual power, before capturing tons of military supplies, was rather limited. They only have a handful of fighters and are overly dependent on Sunni and Baathist militias. But "join us or die" is a very powerful message when you actually follow through with the killing. The people are terrified and think that any resistance is hopeless. Which is only true because they believe it. 

Also, it's worth repeating that a major reason that ISIS has succeeded is due to the complete collapse of the Iraq military. They were poorly trained and equipped and face very severe morale and leadership problems. They would have troubles face any opponent, let alone one as brutal as ISIS. Fighting against anyone when you have poor equipment, no training and terrible leaders is hard enough but when you know that if you lose and are captured or surrender you will be killed at best, then it becomes understandable when you hear reports of desertion.     

Did Putin just blink on Ukraine? -Yahoo/CSM

Vladimir Putin. Yahoo/AFP

In a stunning reversal Vladimir Putin said that his country is not under siege from the west. -Yahoo/CSM. Putin also says he will support any investigation into Flight 17 and will use his influence on the rebels to ensure cooperation. He also claims that he does not want Russia to become an isolated state. 

My Comment:

He's saying all the right things, but my guess is that he is stalling for time. Time is what he and the rebels need because once winter hits Ukraine and Europe will be brought to their knees. How? Natural Gas. Both Ukraine and a lot of EU members are dependent on Russian Natural Gas and Russia has already cut off Ukraine. Once winter hits and the majority of the population is without heat in a part of the world known for harsh winters, they will have to come to the negotiating table. That is of course dependent on the rebels surviving that long. It's a win-win either way for Putin though. If the rebels survive he gets more territory. If they don't he can be seen as a wise leader (at least domestically) who stepped away from the brink.

Also, it's important to point out that Putin doesn't have as much influence over the rebels as the western media likes to believe. Yes the rebels are Russians but they are also extremely stubborn and have been rebellious against everyone throughout their history. Putin can and will influence them but he can not control them. 

BREAKING NEWS: Obamacare dealt huge blow. Yahoo/Business Insider

A Federal appeals court has thrown out a key provision of Obamacare. Yahoo/Business Insider. Federal subsidies for low income individuals are ruled illegal under the law. Only state run insurance exchanges can use subsidies to decrease costs. 36 states do not have state run exchanges, so this ruling would essentially destroy Obamacare in those states.

My Comment: 

Easy prediction, this will be appealed all the way to the Supreme Court. I wonder what the short term impact will be? I am expecting some response to this from the Obama administration today. I do know that without those subsidies Obamacare premiums will go from "cripplingly expensive" to "economic suicide" for low income citizens. I doubt congress with either be able to fix the wording of the law or somehow adjust it due to constant gridlock and partisanship. 

Once again I am VERY thankful that i get good health insurance through work so I don't have to deal with this B.S.

EDIT: This article is a bit more clear then the first one. -Yahoo/AP

I've also been hearing on social media and comment sections that Democrats say this violates the clear intention of the law. In other words, listen to what i mean, not what i say. Hate to break it to them, that's not how the law works. Regardless of what you think of the law this was a huge screw up by the authors of this bill. They really should have thought about this when they wrote it, it seems like a clear loophole that should have been fixed in committee. 

EDIT 2: According to CNN there was  a second ruling in Virginia that ruled the subsidies are legal. When there are two opposing rulings the federal government gets to decide. That means status quo ante for now, but this will end up before the supreme court. 

Obama and Turkish Prime Minster Erdogan no longer speak to each other. Yahoo/AFP

Prime Minster Recep Tayyip Erdogon. Yahoo/AFP

Prime Minster Erdogan of Turkey no longer talks to Obama. -Yahoo/AFP Erdogan is upset due to the war in Gaza and the Syrian Civil War. He feels betrayed because Obama backed out of U.S. airstrikes. Political contact between the United States and Turkey, both members of NATO, happens via Vice President Biden and both countries foreign minsters. 

My Comment:

I suspect a darker reason for the split between Obama and Erdogan. Buried in that link is the accusation that Seymour Hersh brought up. That is to say that Turkey played Obama in the lead up to the aborted Syrian War and played him hard, and did it in a particularly vile and evil way. A false-flag chemical attack. Of course I don't know if it is true, and even if you trust Hersh I need to hear it from someone else credible before I will believe it but I do know that Erdogan was hell bent on the U.S. attacking Syria. I rarely side with Obama on anything, but not going to war in Syria was the right thing for both Obama and the nation. And if the leader of Turkey doesn't like it he can risk his own damn troops.