Monday, January 5, 2015

The Boston Marathon Bombing trail begins today with jury selection. Yahoo News

A courtroom sketch showing Dzhokhar Tsarnaev at a pre-trial hearing. Yahoo/Reuters Jane Collins.

Jury selection begins today in the trial of accused Boston Marathon bomber Dzhokhar Tsarnaev. Yahoo News. Tsarnaev, along with his deceased older brother Tamerlan Tsarnaev, stand accused of planting a bomb at the 2013 marathon, killing 3 people and wounding 300. Tsarnaev was also charged with the murder of a MIT police officer killed while the two brothers were on the run. The case will come down to how involved in the plot Dzhokhar was. The defense will likely argue that he was a secondary player, pressured into terrorism by his older brother, Tamerlan. Prosecutors are sure to argue that he was a cold blooded terrorist. The evidence against Dzhokhar seems air tight, with forensic and video of the brothers placing one of the bombs. The trial is more about trying to stop the execution of Tsarnaev then his actual guilt or innocence. The defense had tried to reach a plea bargain to avoid the death penalty but the prosecution refused to budge. 

My Comment:
This should be an interesting trial. There seems to be little doubt about the guilt of Dzhokhar Tsarnaev, his legion of very misguided fangirls not withstanding, but there is some question if he deserves the death penalty. I am no fan of the death penalty, but if there ever was a case where someone deserved it, it is this one. To me the argument that Dzhokhar was under the influence of his older brother is irrelevant. After all there is a good chance that Dzhokhar actually killed his brother, by mistake of course, while he was trying to flee the police. From what I understand Tamerlan was both shot and run over so at the very least Dzhokhar hurt him while fleeing. Either way though, setting a bomb off in a crowded area and then killing a cop are pretty high on my list of unforgivable acts. 

As for the bombing itself, the whole situation was surreal back in 2013. The bombing itself was terrible, but the ensuing manhunt was disturbing. Two terrorists were able to shut down an entire American city. And that is not an exaggeration, people weren't able to leave their houses until shortly before they were caught. I though the whole reaction was over the top, especially since Tsarnaev was only found after the ban on movement was lifted. Sure, he was a dangerous terrorist, but the pictures of cops driving around in APC's in full military gear pointing guns at civilians didn't sit well with me. Back then that was a minority opinion but I wonder if things aren't changing... 

I'll keep track of this trial as it goes on and I might post something if something major is revealed. When the verdict comes in, expect me to post about it. 

Sunday, January 4, 2015

North Korea is furious with new U.S. sanctions over the Sony Hack. Yahoo/AP

A South Koran newsstand with a fairly awesome magazine about the dispute. Yahoo/AP

North Korea is furious over new U.S. sanctions in response to the Sony Pictures hack. Yahoo/AP. North Korea denies any involvement in the hack, thought to be provoked by the movie "The Interview" which depicts the assassination of Kim Jong Un. The sanctions target 10 North Korean officials and 3 organizations, including the North Korean run arms dealer and their intelligence agency. Barack Obama is also considering placing North Korea back on the state sponsor of terrorism list, which would have a massive impact on foreign aid to the country. This is the first time the United States has placed sanctions on a nation for a cyber attack. Some are questioning the evidence that North Korea was responsible for the attacks. North Korea also called Barack Obama a "monkey".

My Comment:
What a strange story this has been. I don't see these sanctions doing all that much to change North Korea's behavior, if indeed they were the ones responsible for this attack. I'm guessing that they were of course, but it kind of seems like drastic measures based on the available evidence. To put it into legal terms the United States is using the "preponderance of the evidence" standard instead of "beyond a reasonable doubt". At least that's what it appears they are doing to a layman like me. Even if North Korea is innocent, and I truly doubt they are, they are still a brutal dictatorship that kills and imprisons their own people for the slightest of reasons. I won't be shedding any tears for them.   

As for "The Interview", I still haven't seen it. From what I understand it got torched by the critics and really wasn't that funny or politically important. I'm still glad it got released though. From what I understand South Korean activists are planning on smuggling the film into North Korea. The hope is that by watching the movie North Korean civilians will finally be able to see through the cult of personality surrounding the Kim family and, perhaps, cause the regime to fall. That's right, there is a possibility, however small, that a Seth Rogen movie could be what brings down the North Korean regime. Let that sink in. If that happens I will have to see the movie, if for no other reason because of what it accomplished. 

The other, darker thought I have is that if people are caught with this movie in North Korea they will be punished. The thought of either being executed or sent to a concentration camp along with your family due to having seen a Seth Rogen movie... well... it just boggles my mind. Only in our messed up world could watching a Seth Rogen movie be a sign of rebellion. 

Saturday, January 3, 2015

Was there a hostage rescue attempt in Syria this week? Washington Post

A Blackhawk helicopter on a training mission. Washington Post/US Navy.

The Pentagon is denying reports that they mounted a failed rescue mission against ISIS forces in Raqqa, Syria. Washington Post. Reports from the Syrian activist group Raqqa is Being Slaughtered Silently claim that an unusually high number of airstrikes occurred in the area. After the strikes two failed attempts to land helicopters were observed. The helicopters came under fire and were forced to withdraw. The activist group has been right about failed rescue attempts before. Back on July 3rd they were the first to report the failed rescue attempt after the execution of James Foley, an American journalist. If such a rescue attempt did happen it was probably to rescue the Jordanian pilot that crashed last week. 

My Comment:
Not sure what to think on this one. If the United States did conduct a rescue mission then I would not be surprised. I also wouldn't be surprised if they lied about it if it failed. These failed rescue missions, and there have been a lot of them lately, are a propaganda coup for ISIS. The last thing the United States government needs is to hand ISIS more propaganda fodder. 

As for the raid itself, it is possible that it wasn't even U.S. forces conducting it. They are, of course, not the only group in the area. Jordan is possible suspect as well. After all they do want to get their pilot back. That would also explain why there were unable to pull it off. No disrespect to the military of Jordan, but compared to the United States they have a lot less experience with these kind of operations. 

Of course it is possible that the Pentagon is telling the truth and no coalition partners did this raid. That only leaves the Syrians, and I doubt they would want to pick a fight in Raqqa. I'm not sure they even have that capability anymore. It's possible that there was no raid as well. The Syrian activists were right once but given the chaotic situation in Syria and the fact that their information seems to be second hand this whole thing could be a ridiculous rumor. 

Thursday, January 1, 2015

2014 was a terrible year in Syria with more then 76,000 dead. Time

Civilians look through the rubble in Aleppo. Time/Reuters

2014 was the worst year in the Syrian Civil war with more then 76,000 people dying in the conflict. Time. 17,790 of those deaths were civilians and 3,501 were children, according to the Syrian Observatory of Human Rights. The war has killed at least 200,000 people since the start of the conflict in 2011. Of the 76,000 dead, 15,000 were from secular rebel groups like the Free Syrian Army while 17,000 were from Islamic groups like ISIS and the Al-Nusra front. 26210 regime troops died as well. Many of the deaths were caused by the ISIS offensive. 

My Comment:
It was indeed a terrible year for Syria. The ISIS offensive is the main cause for the huge increase in deaths and casualties in Syria. The original battles between the Syrian regime and the various rebel groups were bad enough, but with ISIS fighting as well the situation went from bad to worse. I don't see it getting any better either. The secular groups are being slowly but surely wiped out, so soon it will just be the regime versus the various radical Islamic groups. If ISIS or the other Islamic groups win then we will see even more death and destruction and the likely extermination of non-Sunni groups, like Shia, Christian, Alwatie and Druse. If the regime wins then the whole war will have been rendered pointless. 

Someone once said "what if they threw a war and nobody came?" Well Syria is the war that everyone came too. There are so many factions and interests either fighting in the conflict or supporting people that are. It is very hard to find out who the good guys are and, indeed, if there are any good guys left. So much blood has been shed and so much hatred unleashed that I don't see a peaceful solution for the war. In fact the only way I see to end the war is for one side or the other to wipe out all the others. Since that is very unlikely to happen, I predict that the war will continue indefinitely. 2015 is going to be just as bad as 2014 was. Maybe even worse...  

The F-35 can not even fire its main gun. The Daily Beast.

The F-35 may look cool but looking cool isn't enough. The Daily Beast/Reuters

The F-35 Joint Strike Fighter will not even be able to fire its gun until 2019, four years after it comes into service. The Daily Beast. The $400 billion dollar fighter is due to start service with the Marines this year and the Air Force next year. The issue is a software problem. Without an upgrade the 25mm cannon cannot fire. And even if it could it barely carries any ammunition. It has a capacity of only 180 rounds. The fighter will have to rely on only two AIM-120 AMRAAM missiles to defend itself and can carry only two bombs as well. The fighter is due to replace a huge number of airplanes, including the venerable Harrier jumpjets and A-10 Lighting II/Warthog as well as the more modern F-16 and F-18. The lack of an effective gun is a major criticism of the jet as a major role will be to support troops under fire. Guns are more effective in "danger close" situations where the enemy is right next to friendly troops. The F-35 will also be at a huge disadvantage in dogfights due to a lack of weapons. 

My Comment:
Unbelievable. The F-35 has come under righteous criticism for being a huge waste of taxpayer money before but this is just crazy. Not having a main gun is a huge issue for a fighter that may be expected to dogfight. The Air Force tried having a gunless fighter jet back in Vietnam. The F-4 Phantom II had no gun and when it got into battles over North Vietnam pilots often found themselves in close range dogfights with no real way to hurt their enemies since their missiles were mostly useful at long range. Eventually they were modified to carry gunpods. If the F-4 Phantom II had problems with its nine hardpoints and large numbers of missiles, how will the F-35 fare with only two? 

Eventually the F-35 will get its gun. I hope. But the fighter is still a huge waste of money and is a classic case of trying to do too much. The F-22 is a better dogfighter. The A-10 is a better air support and tank killer. The F-16 and F-18 are probably better dogfighters too and can carry more bombs and missiles. The only real advantage the F-35 has is stealth, an advantage that the Chinese are working very hard to negate. Trying to be a jack of all trades is a very bad idea for a fighter jet. Specialist fighters, bombers and air support planes are the way to go.

Unfortunately that won't happen. The F-35 is a huge pork barrel project, one that even transcends international borders. The F-35 has equipment and components spread across hundreds of congressional districts and even in international areas as well. No congressperson in any of these districts is going to stand up and say "hey, the F-35 isn't really all that good". To do so would be political suicide since it would cost jobs. Hopefully, our troops don't suffer too much due to classic Washington politics.