Trump hints that a 2nd round of diplomacy with Iran may be coming soon.

 

An oil tanker. BBC/Reuters. 

President Donald Trump has hinted that a 2nd round of diplomacy with Iran may be coming in the next couple of days. BBC. Trump made comments that the US might go back to Islamabad, where peace talks were held last weekend, in the next couple of days. This comes after a US led blockade has stopped most Iranian traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. At least six ships have been turned back by the US Navy. It is unclear if there has been a breakthrough on diplomacy, the last round of talks failed due to disagreement over Iran's nuclear program. Meanwhile, Israel and Lebanon have entered peace talks of their own. 

My Comment:

As expected, a 2nd round of peace talks is beginning. Peace talks usually take quite some time and it's rare for the 1st round of talks to be fully successful. Indeed, it's very possible that the 2nd round of talks will lead into a 3rd round and beyond. 

However, there is a chance that there will be major progress made in the 2nd round of talks. I say this because they are coming so quickly after the 1st round and that could mean that whatever the sticking point was, it has been resolved. 

It could be the fact that while the US diplomats were authorized to negotiate an end to the war, the Iranian delegation had to get it approved with their leadership first. From what I understand, that made their negotiating tactics rather handicapped and they weren't able to actually make a deal. It's possible that obstacle has been removed. But it's also possible, even likely, that this will just be a more considered counter offer from Iran. 

I do think that Iran is going to be motivated to negotiate because of the blockade. Iran gets a huge amount of their money from oil sales and they were also getting money from their transit bribes they were forcing on ships that were trying to transit. The blockade, while not perfect, is going to cost the Iranian regime millions of dollars a day, every day that it's in effect. Give that Iran's economy is in shambles, not having the oil flowing out of the Strait of Hormuz is going to be extremely costly. 

I also think that the conflict will likely remain in a "frozen" state and that the ceasefire will be extended. There is always a chance that something goes wrong, but I am guessing that as long as diplomacy is happening at this high of a level the conflict will remain in it's current state. Both sides have a major incentive to not start the conflict again, so unless someone screws something up or there is just an absolute impasse I am guessing that the ceasefire will hold. 

It's also positive that Israel and Lebanon are holding talks. It shows that Israel too wants to end the conflict. I had worried about them torpedoing any peace deal but it seems like they want out of this conflict as well. 

So, how likely is this 2nd round of talks to end the war? I'd say it's unlikely, but not impossible, like a 1 out of 3 chance. More realistically, it's going to be a starting point and it will probably take more rounds of negotiating to actually end the war. There is always a chance of a breakthrough or some kind of disaster but my guess is that the war will probably end sometime in May or June.