US Military is concerned about possible strikes from Iran.

Centcom commander General Kenneth McKenzie. Foreign Policy/Getty.

General Kenneth McKenzie, commander of Centcom, says that he is concerned that Iran may launch additional strikes in the Middle East similar to the attack that hit Saudi Arabia's largest oil field. Foreign Policy. Iran is under immense pressure from US sanctions and is dealing with civil unrest and could lash out. There are threats against US forces posted in the region and McKenzie fears another strike like the one that hit the Aramco oil refinery earlier this year. Officials are especially concerned that an attack could be launched against desalinization plants, which would be vulnerable to the combined cruise missile and drone strikes that were used in the Aramco attack. Such an attack would threaten water supplies in the region and could cause a massive humanitarian disaster. 

My Comment:

Not sure how real this threat is. Iran has long been saber rattling and they obviously have caused some major issues in the past. The Aramco attack was a game changer and they have been heavily involved in the wars in Yemen and Iraq. They are certainly capable of launching another attack. 

And Iran is not stable right now. Sanctions are doing quite a bit of damage to them right now. They have had riots in the streets due to fuel prices that were so severe that they cut the internet to the whole country. Though those fuel riots were due to Iran's action in raising prices, the reason they had to do it is because they have been largely cut off from the oil markets. Iran is running out of money and might want to do something desperate. 

On the other hand though, I don't think the timing is right for Iran. With the impeachment going on and a major election in 2020, I think they want to figure out if President Trump is going to be there long term. If he were to be impeached (which won't happen) I don't think they would get better treatment from Mike Pence, but they would almost certainly get better treatment from a 2020 Democrat, none of whom had a problem with Obama's nuclear deal. My guess is that they will continue to try and wait things out.

That doesn't mean that they aren't going to try and provoke us and our local allies in the region. Iran will remain heavily engaged in both Syria and Yemen in their various proxy wars against Saudi Arabia and Israel. I could see more border skirmishes or battles on the Saudi border or more attacks against Israel via their proxies in the Houthi Rebels and Hezbollah. But I don't see a major attack coming in the short term. 

That being said, General McKenzie is right to be concerned about a strike against Saudi Arabia's desalinization plants. The country has very little in the way of natural water and if those plants were destroyed or damaged they would run out of water very quickly. Given how hot Saudi Arabia is and how little natural water they have it could be a disaster of epic proportions. Hundreds or thousands of people could die of thirst fairly quickly. 

And I don't think the Saudi Arabian government is up to the task of defending themselves against the kind of tactics Iran could use. They failed to protect the Aramco field which was a better defended target. If the Iranians do choose to attack again I don't think Saudi Arabia's air defenses would be able to hold out. 

If Iran does choose to strike it will be a huge problem for everyone involved. Attacking Saudi Arabia's water supplies would be an act of war and probably a war crime as well. There would have to be a response and that response would likely be war. I don't think that will happen but the idea has to be taken seriously. Hopefully Iran will realize that it's really not in their best interest and nothing will happen.