China warns India in ongoing border dispute.

A conference room used by China and India. Reuters. 

China had warned India to not hold any illusions about China's ability to defend it's territory. Reuters. The two countries are in a dispute over the mountainous region in the Indian state of Sikkim. The Chinese claim that Indian troops crossed the border and interfered with a construction crew who was building a road. India claims that the road is a strategic threat to them. The two countries troops have since been in a standoff in the strategic "Chicken's Neck" area where a strip of land controlled by China separates India from their close ally Bhutan. Approximately 300 soldiers total from both sides are facing each other in the plateau region. 

My Comment:

A fairly dangerous situation on the top of the world. China and India have faced off before including a border war in the 1960's. China won that war but things have changed quite a bit since then. A war now between China and India could be horrific given the fact that both of the countries are nuclear powers and have a web of allies in the region. If the situation spirals out of control, it could be a global disaster. 

Is war likely though? I kinda doubt it. Though China has been saber rattling for quite some time with practically all of their neighbors, there really hasn't been even a skirmish. China is probably just trying to make an impression and save face by issuing these threats. I doubt they want war. 

China would have very little to gain from a war with India. Such a war would be hugely disruptive to China's economy and would also probably loosen the Communist Party's grip on the country. Plus there is the possibility that they would lose the war, which would be a huge embarrassment. And they risk a nuclear exchange with India which would kill hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of people. A tiny strip if land in the mountains isn't worth it. 

India does have a point though. A road in the plateau is a strategic threat to them.China's main problem with any war in the region is logistics. Right now they would have real problems with sending troops to the area. They would largely be limited to sending troops on foot or by helicopter, the 2nd method which could be cut off if they lose air superiority at any time. India wants to keep that advantage so if they did harass the road workers it makes sense. 

I am guessing that this conflict will remain a war of words and not an actual war. Neither side has much to gain from a conflict and a hell of a lot to lose. That being said I also don't see either side giving up on their ambitions on this area. 

So what would a border war with China and India look like? Very strange. The border between China and India is mostly the Himalayas, also known as the largest and highest mountain range in the world. There are limited places on the border that are even acceptable for warfare, with neither side likely being able to deploy troops.    

Most of the fighting than would be in the limited areas where troops are actually deployable, like the plateau in Sikkim. Expect artillery duels and skirmishes but not much in the way of major troop movements. 

The air war would be a larger factor and I think that India probably has the advantage. China has advanced fighters and a large number of jets, but they would have quite a bit of difficulty deploying them to the region. There aren't many airbases in Tibet while India has bases in the area. China has more aircraft but that matters little if they can't deploy them. 

I don't think a nuclear exchange is likely in such a war. In a border war there is no real reason to deploy nuclear weapons, especially when it's only over a thin sliver of land in the mountains and that there will be nuclear retribution. No matter how badly the war goes, it's not like the governments are going to be overthrown or large scale invasions are going to happen. If a war happens it's going to be a minor skirmish and air duel, not a full scale war...