Turkey and Saudi Arabia are considering sending in ground troops to the Syrian Civil War. AFP.

Saudi Tornado fighters fly in formation during an exercise. AFP.

Turkey and Saudi Arabia are considering deploying ground troops to fight in the Syrian Civil war to fight ISIS. AFP. The Turkish Foreign Minster, Mevlut Cavusogla has confirmed that Saudi fighter jets are already being deployed to Turkey to participate in anti-ISIS operations. It is unknown how many jets will be sent but Saudi military officials have already toured the Incirlik airbase, which has also been used by the United States, France and the United Kingdom to conduct air raids. The plans for deploying ground troops are preliminary at best, and there is no guarantee that Saudi ground troops will be deployed there. Bashar al-Assad, the president of Syria, has acknowledged the possibility of Turkey and Saudi Arabia deploying ground troops, and vowed to fight them if they were to do so. Both Turkey and Saudi Arabia have declared that Assad must go and consider removing him as an important of a goal as defeating ISIS is. 

My Comment:

With allies like these, who needs enemies? This deployment will not help in the fight against ISIS. Indeed, Turkey has shown little resolve in the fight against ISIS and has only conducted token airstrikes against ISIS targets in Syria. As far as I have been able to tell, they have only sent a couple of attacks against ISIS, much fewer then the ones they have sent against the Kurds. And it is the Kurds that the Turks care about. ISIS is an ally of convenience for Turkey. As long as ISIS focuses on fighting the Syrian regime and the Kurdish areas in the north of Syria, Turkey will leave them alone. At worst, they will send a few more token airstrikes. 

The Saudi side of this is rather significant as well. The Saudis have largely ignored the Syrian conflict in a military sense. They have, of course, sent tons of supplies and weapons to the rebels, including the 2nd worst terrorist group in the country, al-Nusra. Saudi Arabia has only sent token airstrikes against ISIS, which has had a marginal impact on the war. The deployment of these fighters could change things slightly. Not too much though, Saudi Arabia is still bogged down in Yemen, which represents a much bigger threat to Saudi Arabia then ISIS is. After all, ISIS has only conducted limited terror operations in Saudi Arabia, while the Shiite Houthis in Yemen are regularly attacking their troops and border posts. Though the Saudis might want to send significant troops to Syria, I have to wonder where on earth they are going to come from.  

But is a ground deployment likely? I have heard rumors that the Turks really do want to invade, and if they do they probably would target ISIS forces, though not as a primary target. Their main target would, of course, be the Kurds. Turkey considers the possibility of an independent Kurdish state to be an existential threat, and they are not happy about what is happening in the northern part of Syria right now. The Kurds have a de-facto state and they have even been working with the Syrian regime, indirectly, in their offensive against the rebels near Aleppo.They may not have an actual Kurdish state, but they are getting closer to one every day. And Assad is largely leaving the Kurds alone. 

Given the circumstances, Turkey could deploy ground troops. But I wonder if they might try and kill two birds with one stone. After all, the Turks hate Assad almost as much as they hate the Kurds. And any attack on the Assad regime would go a long way to explain any deployment of ground forces by the Saudis, given that they hate Assad as well. The attacks against ISIS could just be an excuse to attack the Syrian regime.

Still, I think that is very unlikely. After all, the Russians are backing up the Syrians and they have quite formidable forces in Syria. In addition to some of their most advanced fighter jets, the Russians have quite a few ships in the area, as well as powerful S-400 anti-air missiles to the country as well. Those systems would make any attack on the Syrian regime incredibly costly, and could give the Russians air superiority in the case of any attacks by the Turks and Saudis. A ground invasion could still happen but without air cover, I'm not sure how well the Turks and Saudis would do. I think if they really wanted to they could win, but the cost would be massive and Russia would retaliate, possibly spiraling the whole region into war. 

I don't think that will happen. Indeed, I think the chances of any ground invasion is tiny. This is probably just saber rattling by the Turks and Saudis. They are upset that Assad is winning in Syria and are possibly trying to upset the truce deal that was just made. They don't want to give up trying to take Assad down when they have invested so much into the country. But as a serious threat? I don't think it will happen. And if something does happen it will be a much more limited fight against ISIS and the Kurds, and not the regime itself. 

There is a question of what Russia would do in that more limited scenario. I don't think that they would attack the Saudis or Turks, but they would probably not like to see troops crossing the Turkish border either. My guess is that they would do nothing, but the chances of another incident like the recent shoot down of a Russian jet would increase dramatically.

For all these reasons and more I am hoping that calmer heads prevail. The American government needs to put pressure on the Turks and the Saudis to put their plans on hold. I think the Obama administration is coming around to the fact that the days when Assad looked doomed are long over. My guess is that they will try and talk some sense into both countries. It's clear to me that they won't get what they want in Syria, and the sooner they realize that the better off everyone will be.