President Donald Trump. ABC News/AFP/Getty.
President Donald Trump announced a blockade against Venezuelan oil shipments in the Gulf of America. ABC News. Trump said that Venezuela was surrounded by the biggest armada seen in the region and demanded that Venezuela give back assets it nationalized from 2007 that belonged to the United States. A full scale war is unlikely but it is very likely that airstrikes against drug boats and captures of sanctioned oil tankers will continue. Venezuela has about 30 sanctioned oil tankers while the United States has at least 11 vessels in the region, including a Carrier Strike Group. Venezuela's Navy has begun escorting ships though they stand no realistic chance against US forces. The effort appears to be related to an effort to remove Venezuelan President Nicholas Maduro from power.
My Comment:
This story broke yesterday but I didn't cover it, largely because I had heard that Trump was giving a speech tonight. I should have just done it as Trump's speech was almost entirely based on domestic politics and his accomplishments from the start of his 2nd term. I don't believe that Venezuela was really mentioned in a significant way.
There are roughly 11 ships in the region, which is an extremely powerful military force. This force includes the Dwight D. Eisenhower carrier strike group, made up of the carrier, some cruisers and destroyers and various support vessels. This force is more than a match for Venezuela's pretty pathetic Navy. The biggest ship Venezuela has is a frigate. A 50 year old frigate. And the rest of their Navy is just as unimpressive.
Still, it's important to note, that as large as the force America has deployed in the region, it's not anywhere near enough for a proper war. An actual invasion of Venezuela would require thousands of troops and probably a few more strike groups. So I should be very clear here, as of this writing a major ground war with Venezuela is absolutely not in the cards.
Indeed, I think any real conflict here is pretty unlikely. At most we might see some of Venezuela's Navy sunk, but even that seems unlikely. Trump seems to want to capture the oil tankers, not destroy them, and I am guessing that they will only target ships they can do so without major resistance. After all, destroying a tanker full of oil is a huge waste and not something that anyone really wants.
Instead, I think this is a way to further ratchet up the pressure on Venezuelan President Nicholas Maduro. Supposedly there are talks about him leaving power, but I am guessing the idea that he would get immunity for any crimes is holding things up.
Taking a bunch of Venezuelan oil tankers though? That is going to increase the pressure on Venezuela dramatically. They are looking at billions of dollars in losses, which is going to put extreme pressure on Maduro himself and the regime in general. It's very possible that he might face a coup if it goes on too long and it's also very possible that he makes a deal to leave power.
It's not a sure thing though. Maduro's regime has survived extreme pressure before and it's very possible he will choose to try and outlast Trump. I think that would be a mistake, Trump appears to not be messing around this time and it's very possible that if Maduro won't leave, he will be removed. But I find that unlikely. I tend to see this whole thing as an effort to convince Maduro, or failing that, other members of his regime, that leaving would be a good idea...
No comments:
Post a Comment