Iranian troops in Syria reportedly attack Israel directly for the first time.

Israeli troops in the Golan Heights. BBC/Reuters. 

Iranian troops in Syria have reportedly attacked Israel directly for the first time. BBC. 20 rockets were fired from Syria into the Golan Heights. No casualties were recorded and some of the rockets were intercepted. Israel has reportedly retaliated for the attack, though details are scares. Syria reports that they shot down two missiles were shot down and two civilians were killed, but a local rights group reports that an Iranian weapon depot was hit instead, with fifteen fighters killed. 

My Comment:

This is a rapidly developing story so I won't go into the details too greatly. There is a lot of fog of war going on with both the attack and retaliation. Obviously, the reports on the ground in Syria are different, with the Syrians saying one thing and the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights saying another. I have also seen some rumors that it wasn't the Iranians at all, but the Syrians. Like all initial rumors these should be taken with a grain of salt. 

Either way, this is a major escalation in the proxy war between Israel and Iran in Syria. For the first time, that we know of, Iranian troops have attacked Israel directly. The fact that the attack failed miserably isn't surprising but it also isn't the main reason this story is important. Israel has pretty good defenses against rocket attacks so it isn't surprising that they didn't suffer any casualties. 

The main problem is that instead of a proxy war, Iran has escalated things to the point where they are attacking Israel directly. That's not the same as an actual war but it's clear that the conflict has entered into a new phase, one that puts Israel itself at risk. 

It seems like the other major players in the Syria conflict aren't going to interfere with either side. Russia probably could have intercepted Israel's fighter jets but they were content to let them attack. And America didn't do anything either to attack the Iranians. Other than the Syrians themselves, this conflict will likely remain one between Israel and Iran. 

A lot of pundits will say this attack was due to Trump pulling out of the Iranian deal. Though I don't doubt that the Iranians see this as a middle finger to him as well, it isn't about the Iran deal. The situation between Iran and Israel has been escalating for quite some time now and this was the logical next step. I am guessing it would have happened no matter what Trump did on the Iran deal. If he had stuck with it, it wouldn't have stopped this attack. 

So what happens next? In the immediate term, probably nothing. Israel already attacked in retaliation, so there isn't much else for them to do. In the longer term though, I could see Israel being much more aggressive in trying to stop these attacks before they happen. I am guessing that they will be more likely to attack masses of Iranian troops if they believe they are going to attack. 

I would also be surprised if Iran didn't try something like this again. Even though this attack failed and failed miserably, it's still a propaganda victory for them. They are showing the Israelis that they can indeed threaten them and that they have the power to possibly kill Israeli civilians. That is a message they are going to want to repeat as much as they possibly can. The proxy war in Syria will continue in a darker and more dangerous place.