Last year I made predictions for 2016. How correct was I?

Last year I did a predictions post about what I thought was going to happen in 2016, which can be found here. I will probably do another predictions post for 2017, but this is not that post. Though we still have a few days left in 2016 I thought I could take a look back at the old post and see where I was wrong and where I was right. There is no point in making predictions if you don't look back later and see if you were right or wrong, right? I think I did ok and I was correct about some things that other people were wrong about.

A quick note on how I originally did my predictions. I gave everything a percentage value but it was more about how likely I thought something was. If I said something had a 95% chance, I meant that it was almost certain to happen and a 5% chance would be an almost certain chance of it not happening. I'll give myself credit when I was correct but if I hedged I will only give myself partial credit. I also realize that some of my percentages don't add up. Blame that on my poor math skills that fill me with shame. An easy early prediction for 2017, I will still suck at math! 99%

Let's begin:

2016 Presidential Election:
-Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic Party's candidate for President. 90% (I was obviously correct here. It turned out that she rigged the primary but even if she hadn't this was a safe bet)
-Hillary Clinton will not be president because she will be arrested and awaiting trial or actually be in jail. 5% Should be 100%... (Actually came closer then I thought it would, but I still get credit)
-Bernie Sanders will be the Democratic Party's candidate for President. 1% (Didn't happen)
-Bernie Sanders will run third party after losing to either Hillary Clinton or Martin O'Malley in the primaries. 5% (I was correct that Sanders would bend the knee, even after it was clear that Clinton cheated)
-Both Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders will drop dead allowing Martin O'Malley to become the candidate. >1% (Probably should have been higher given the fact that Clinton was in poor health and Sanders was a dinosaur. Still, correct.)
-Martin O'Malley becomes the presidential candidate on his own merits and not because the other candidates died or had their campaigns explode, literally or figuratively. 0% (How many people even remember that he ran? )

Total: 6/6

-Donald Trump will be the Republican Party's candidate. 90% (Correct and wasn't even close)
-If he is the candidate, the Republican Party will back him and won't try to undermine him. 75% (Mostly correct, though there were prominent people that didn't back him. Partial credit)
-Ted Cruz ends up as the Republican Party's candidate. 5% (Correct)
-Combined chances of anyone else ends up as the Republican Party's candidate. >1% (Correct as well. There were some long shot chances but none of them were realistic)
-Jeb Bush will be the Republican Party's candidate. 0%. I'd go lower if mathematically possible. At this point it would take divine (or diabolical) intervention... (Correct)
-Donald Trump will run as a third party candidate. 1%  (Correct)

-Someone will try to kill Donald Trump either before or after the election. 1% (much higher then I would rate the chances for all the other candidates combined) (Very wrong. Someone actually did try and assassinate Donald Trump. He failed miserably, but the attempt was made)

Total: 5.5/7

-The election will be between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. 90% (Correct, safe bet even back then)
-Donald Trump will win. 65% (Correct and I deserve credit for calling it this early. So many other people said that he never had a chance, but I said he would probably win even further back then this post.)
-Trump will also gain more African American supporters then any Republican in recent memory. 90% (Trump did better among African Americans but not amazingly so. Still, correct)
-Trump will also gain Asian and women supporters compared to past candidates and will not lose a significant chunk of Hispanic voters. 60% (Correct, but only half credit because I hedged pretty hard here, plus Trump gained Hispanic votes.)

-If Trump is the Republican candidate, I will vote for him. 90% (I don't want Clinton to win and I don't really like any of the third party options) (Correct)

Total: 4.5/5

Other Political Predictions:
-Barack Obama will try to ram through some kind of gun control before the end of his term. 99% (Correct, he pushed through a measure targeting people on government assistance who can't manage their finances)
-This will result in a civil war. 1% (Correct, no civil war so far due to gun control)
-No national gun control legislation will be passed by the Federal Government. 100% (Correct)

-There will be a mass shooting not related to foreign terrorism in 2016. 100% (I'm actually struggling to think of one, but a quick wikipedia search shows a couple, most notably the Kalamazoo Uber shooting. Plus I think the Black Lives Matter attacks on cops probably fit, even though I consider them to be terrorist attacks, they weren't foreign terrorism)

Total: 4/4

-Race relations will continue to deteriorate. 99% (Subjective, but I would argue correct)
-This will also result in civil war. 1% (Correct)
-Someone directly involved with Black Lives Matter will either intentionally kill police officers or commit an act of racially motivated terrorism. 85% (Correct, tragically. Multiple cases)
-Opinion polls on Black Lives Matter will shift until the majority of people admit to disliking them. 75% (I'm tossing this one because I haven't seen the polling data. I hope it is correct though)
-Racial violence between blacks and whites will be more common next year then they were this year. More Dylann Roof's and equivalents on the black side. 70% (Wrong. Though there has been an increase of racial crimes, there weren't any more Dylann Roofs that I am aware of. )
-The media will be held at least partially accountable for their role in this mess. 0% (Correct)
-The media will blame the mess on racism, the police and gun rights, while avoiding blaming themselves, Democratic polices, and gun control. 100% (Correct, though I probably should have said mainstream media)
-Crime rates will increase due to police abandoning tactics that could offend Black Lives Matter. 60% (Partial credit. Crime rates have risen, but I can't prove why it has happened)

-Some police officers will die because they will hesitate to shoot a suspect out of fear of being the next Darren Wilson. 80% (As far as I have been able to tell this was was incorrect). 

Total: 5.5/8 +1 tossed question.

-Republicans will retain control of both the House and Senate. 90% (Correct)

-Republicans will also retain their lead in Governor's offices and State legislatures. 70% (Correct)

Total: 2/2

-Social Justice will continue to face an even larger backlash then they did during the later half of 2015. 90% (Correct. Trump's election is proof of that alone, but other things have happened as well)
-Social Justice will face such a backlash that it will hurt the Democrats chances in 2016. 75% (Subjective, but I think I was right. Social Justice's overreaction to things were used as a rallying cry for the right.)
-Social Justice will still be a large force by the end of 2016. 70% (Correct. They are on the decline since the height of their power, but they are still powerful)
-Criticism of Social Justice, such as using the term Social Justice Warrior and anger over political correctness along with a general shifting of the Overton Window will push SJ out of the mainstream 25% (Correct)
-Social shaming campaigns will lose some of their effectiveness in 2016. 33% (Correct, they are still effective. The right is also starting to use them as well, with today's incident with a professor talking about wanting White Genocide launching a campaign against him from the right)
-Barack Obama will finish out his term as president and won't be assassinated or removed from office. 99.9999% (Barring something horrible happening in the next few weeks... correct)

Total; 6/6

Foreign Policy:
-Relations with Russia will continue to falter. 55% (Half credit. Though I was right, I hedged quite a bit. Plus the election of Donald Trump helped quite a deal)
-Relations between Turkey and Russia will deteriorate to the point that war erupts. 10% (Correct)
-NATO will be drawn into that war. 1% (Also correct)
-The Ukraine conflict will largely stay the same as it is now. A stalemate with little actual fighting. 80% (Correct)

-Vladimir Putin will still be in charge of Russia by the end of 2016. 95% (Correct)

Total: 4.5/5

-China will get into a conflict with one of its neighbors, over maritime claims. 55% (Half credit since I hedged, but basically correct)
-That conflict will lead to an actual war. >1% (Correct)
-China's economy will collapse for any reason. 25% (Correct)
-The Mexican Drug War will continue with it's current intensity. 80% (Correct)

Total: 3.5/4

-The Syrian Civil war will still be going on by 2017. 99.9999% (Correct)
-The United States will deploy major ground forces in Syria and/or Iraq. 10% (It really depends on how you define "major forces". I was correct that there weren't any major combat troops deployed, but the number of troops were increased in Syria. Still, I think was correct)
-Some other country will deploy major ground forces. 1% (Completely wrong. I did not predict Turkey joining the war in Syria)
-Bashar al-Assad will be the president of Syria by the end of 2016. 90% (Correct)
-China will join the war in Syria, in a role similar to Russia's. 60% (WRONG!)

-The Iraqi government will survive 2016. 98% (Correct)
-A major international war will break out due to reasons I did not mention above and not related to terrorism. 2% (Correct)

Total: 5/7

ISIS:
-ISIS will still control significant parts of both Iraq and Syria. 99% (Correct)
-ISIS will lose either Mosul or Raqqa and have their territory shrunk in both Iraq and Syria. 45% (Correct, but half credit for hedging)
-ISIS will actually expand in Iraq and Syria. 35% (Correct, though ISIS did retake some minor territory, such as Palmyra. Overall they lost much more then they had)
-ISIS will lose control of most of the major cities they currently hold in Iraq and Syria and will be reduced to holding onto backwater towns and the country sides. 5% (Correct, ISIS still holds Mosul, Raqqa and several other cities)
-ISIS will expand in the other countries they control territory in, such as Libya, Egypt, Yemen, Nigeria and Afghanistan. 99% (Very wrong. ISIS has been decimated in Libya and Nigeria and their operations in Nigeria, Yemen, Egypt and Afghanistan haven't really changed much)
-ISIS will also expand in other countries, to the point of taking and holding territory. 95% (Wrong)

-ISIS will be the main jihadist group in Syria. 99% (Correct)

Total: 4.5/7

-ISIS's leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi will still be alive by 2017. 75% (Correct, though he has been reported dead a couple of times)

-ISIS will conduct an assassination or terror attack that kills a world leader. 65% (Results pending. The assassination of the Russian ambassador in Turkey would certainly count, but we still haven't figured out who the assassin was working for. Since we don't know, I am tossing this question for now)

-ISIS will assassinate the Pope. 50% (Wrong)

-ISIS will execute another US citizen; 80% (Also wrong)

-ISIS will still exist by 2017. 100% (Correct)

-Turkey, Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf States will admit their role in creating, funding and supporting ISIS, either currently or in the past. 0% (Correct)

-The United States will admit their role in creating ISIS. 1% (Partial credit. though the mainstream media and our current president have denied this, President elect Trump argued this at the debates, along with many people on the right)

Total: 3.5/6 +1 tossed question

Terrorism:

-There will be a terrorist attack that kills a similar amount of people to the San Bernardino attacks in the United States in 2016. 90% (Correct, the Pulse shooting)

-There will be a terrorist attack that kills a similar amount of people to the Paris attacks in the United States in 2016. 75% (Feel free to argue this one, but I think as the worst terror attack since 9/11, the Pulse shooting qualifies. Not quite as many deaths but the impact was about the same)

-There will be a terrorist attack that kills a similar amount of people to 9/11 in the United States in 2016. 20% (Thankfully correct)

-There will be a terrorist attack that will occur but will fail to kill anyone due to incompetence on the part of the terrorists. 99% (Correct, the New Jersey and New York bombings. Still amazed that nobody died there. Also the mass stabbing by the Somali man in a mall. Probably a few more)

-Canada will experience a terrorist attack. 80% (Partial credit. The attack was disrupted by police before it could be carried out)

Total: 4.5/5

-Europe will have multiple smaller terrorist attacks and at least one on the scale of the Paris attacks. 90% (I'd argue that the Brussels bombing probably counts given how complex it was, but in terms of casualties I'm probably wrong. Partial credit I guess)

-Europe will have a attack on the scale of 9/11 with 1000+ casualties. 45% (Correct, but partial credit for hedging)

-Europe will have a terrorist attack using nuclear, chemical or biological weapons. 33% (Correct, but probably closer to being wrong then people would like to admit)

-North Africa will see more attacks like the ones that occurred in Egypt and Tunisia this year. 75% (Wrong)

-Boko Haram will still conduct the majority of terrorist attacks throughout next year. 80% (I'm tossing this one because I haven't seen the data yet. Probably correct though)

-Egypt will be a hotbed of terrorism and westerners will be attacked much more frequently. 60% (Wrong)

Total: 2/5 + 1 tossed question

-Asia will suffer a major terrorist attack on the scale of the Paris attacks. 75% (Depends on how you define Asia. Pakistan and Afghanistan are in Asia but I think I was pretty clearly talking about China/Japan/Korea and other East Asian countries. No credit)

-South America will have a major terrorist attack of any scale. 15% (Correct)

-At least one major terrorist attack will involve people that infiltrated the United States or Europe as a refugee. 80% (Correct, the Berlin attack was the most recent one)

-The vast majority of terrorist attacks in both Europe and America will be conducted by 2nd generation citizens. 75% (Correct as far as I can tell)

Total: 3/4

-Other terrorist organizations besides ISIS will pull of a major terrorist attack in 2016. 90% (Correct)

-Al-Qaeda will become relevant again. 50% (I would say that I was wrong here. Al-Qaeda still exists but they haven't done much. Even al-Nusra has abandoned them)

-The vast majority of terror attacks in Europe and North America will either be directly conducted by ISIS or inspired by them. 99% (Correct)

Total: 2/3

Final Total: 66/79 + 3 tossed questions. 83% correct.

I think I did a fairly good job at my predictions. I was much more correct with my political ones then my foreign policy ones. I had a couple that I was completely, embarrassingly wrong about, most notably about ISIS expanding outside of their current holdings in Syria and Iraq, but overall I was more right then wrong. I think there is an argument to be made against some of my conclusions and I did have a few easy predictions, but despite that I still think I deserve a bit of credit for getting a lot right. 

Will I do this again? I think so. I will probably have a post up this weekend for my predictions for 2017. I don't think I will do as good as I did for 2016 though. Why? Because the election answers kind of bolstered my numbers a bit and I won't have an election to deal with this year. Still, I hope that when I do them I will still be mostly correct.