Saturday, December 20, 2014

ISIS is executing its own fighters for desertion. Yahoo/AFP

ISIS fighters in Syria. Yahoo/AFP.

A source says that 100 ISIS fighters in the Islamic States capital of Raqqa have been executed for trying to quit the organization. Yahoo/AFP. The fighters were foreign recruits. ISIS has created a military police unit to collect and arrest militants who do not report for duty. Many of the militants have become disillusioned because they are fighting other rebel groups instead of the regime of Bashar al-Assad. Others, including between 30 and 50 Britons wish to return home but fear arrest if they were to make it out. ISIS has faced a string of defeats lately, so the internal strife is significant. 

My Comment:
This is good news and bad news, at least in terms of the fight against ISIS. Obviously it was very bad news for the people executed, but for the rest of the world this may be a positive sign. The fact that so many foreign fighters are sick of the war does not bode well for the long term survival of the Islamic State. I think the decline in morale is in part due to what they said in the article. These fighters though they were going to be fighting Assad, not the Free Syrian Army. 

There may be more too it then that though. I'm willing to bet that at least some of these fighters are disgusted by the level of violence that ISIS is committing in Syria and Iraq right now. These fighters may be willing to kill for ISIS but they might draw the line at some of the atrocities they are committing. The allied airstrikes may be having an effect as well, along with a string of defeats and the unending siege at Kobani. Add that all up with the general terrible conditions in war and it isn't all that surprising that ISIS is having a morale problem.

There is a downside though as well. If ISIS is serious about clamping down on deserters and are executing people then that may inspire people to fight harder. If the choices are fight and probably die or run and almost certainly die many will choose to fight. A man without hope is a dangerous thing, and if these fighters feel they have nothing to lose by risking it all they might just fight harder. Of course that means that these military police units have to be incredibly diligent about catching these deserters. Can they do that in a chaotic and confusing war? Good question. Time will tell, but my guess is no.

One wonders what will happen to these fighters if they do manage to escape ISIS. The only people who I think would accept them would be other radical organizations. If they return to their home countries they will be imprisoned at best. The question of what to do with ex-jihadists has not been answered yet, but it would be a huge risk letting them back in to live as normal people. 

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