Sunday, December 22, 2024

President Elect Trump says he will designate Mexican Drug Cartels as terrorist organizations.

 

Donald Trump during the speech when he made the announcement. Reuters. 

President Elect Donald Trump has vowed to designate Mexican drug cartels as terrorists organizations in a wider operation to control the flow of drugs into America. Reuters. Trump had made the threat during his first time but backed off after gaining cooperation from Mexico's former President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. However, the flow of drugs has not subsided, with around 50,000 to 60,000 deaths expected from fentanyl and other related drugs. Trump said that the military could use covert and overt operations against the cartels involving special operations and cyber-warfare. In addition to the campaign against the cartels directly, Trump seeks to convince people to not be their customers, with a new ad campaign that would show the devastating effects drugs have on people, saying they would focus on how it can destroy your looks. 

My Comment:

This story kind of flew under the radar but it's kind of a huge deal. Trump essentially said that military force could be used against the Mexican drug cartels, which would finally involve the United States directly into the war. Regardless of what you think of that idea, you would think that would be the key takeaway from the story. But nope, half of the article was about Trump's plan to run some anti-drug advertisements. 

Will those ads accomplish much? Probably not. I don't think that the original Just Say No campaign did much and there was evidence that scare tactics, like the DARE program back in the day, actually did more damage than they helped. I think if you are going to run ads like this, appealing to vanity isn't the worst idea. I remember the "faces of meth" campaign and I think that was probably at least somewhat successful. Showing folks a bunch of fentanyl zombies might make them think twice about trying drugs for the first time. 

Regardless, that's not the main takeaway we should have from this announcement. Trump has essentially announced a potential military campaign. Designating the cartels as terrorists wouldn't necessarily result in combat, but Trump did say that we could be taking more direct action against them. 

But we should note that military action isn't the only thing this would affect. There would be legal action to be taken as well and it would also mean that folks with links to the cartels would be fast tracked deported if they were here illegally. 

The real question is what the government of Mexico will do. Trump does not have the kind of relationship with the new President, Claudia Pardo, that he had with AMLO and she has been trying to play hardball with him over the tariff issue. It's possible that this is just a threat on Trump's part and one that could be avoided if Pardo plays ball, like AMLO did. 

But if Pardo doesn't play ball, then I think it's very possible we could take some limited military action against the cartels. We certainly have a casus belli against them, they are facilitating the deaths of thousands of Americans every year and they represent a threat to our borders and citizens as well. And they seem to understand little else other than violence. 

Will it work out? It depends on what the goal is. If you are Mexico you probably aren't happy as any campaign against the leadership of the cartels would probably lead to civil wars in the cartels. But for America, that's a solution, not a problem. Chaos in the cartels means less drugs getting into America and fewer problems caused by those drugs. 

The one thing that could be a problem though is we could see reprisal attacks from the cartels. Right now they mostly leave American citizens alone, to avoid this very scenario. But if we declare war against them in a de facto manor, they may do the same to us, which could lead to terror attacks in the homeland and kidnappings and murders to US citizens in Mexico. 

But I think we have to do something. The drug problem is getting worse and it's a major reason why our life expectancy is so bad. Stopping, or even slowing down, the amount of Fentanyl out there would be a major good, even if the cost is violence... 

Who knows what will come to pass though. Trump's not in power yet and he is known to take a hard line as a negotiating tactic. Like I said, this could just be a message to Pardo, play ball or else. A deal could be made or it could be a bluff. Time will tell I guess. 

Saturday, December 21, 2024

US Congresswoman Kay Granger found living in a memory care facility...

 

Texas representative Kay Granger (R) on the right. Dallas Express. 

US Congresswoman Kay Granger, a Republican in 12th district in Texas, has been found living in a memory care facility. Dallas Express. Granger has not showed up for a vote in Congress since July 24th and when reporters came to visit her office there was nobody there. Calls were also not returned. A tip stated that Granger was a resident of a memory care facility and had an incident where she had been found wandering in her former neighborhood. The managers of the memory facility were able to confirm that Granger was indeed a resident but did not grant an interview. Granger was retiring from her position and another Republican, Craig Goldman won her seat, raising questions as to why Granger hasn't retired. 

My Comment:

I know I have said this before but I will keep harping on this. America is starting to turn into the Soviet Union right before they collapsed where they had a series of geriatric leaders that were really unable to govern. It was true with Joe Biden. It's true with Mitch McConnell. It's true with Nancy Pelosi, and it was true with Dianne Feinstein until she died in office. And now it's true with Kay Granger as well. 

To be fair, I do sympathize with Granger, along with the rest of these folks. Aging is a hard thing and I wouldn't wish Alzheimer's and/or Dementia on anyone. I have seen first hand what it can do to people and it's absolutely heartbreaking when someone you love doesn't recognize you or doesn't remember that you visited them. 

But at some people folks need to step up and say that you can't be in control of the government when your brain doesn't work anymore. It's one thing when you are Trump, where you are old but still sharp, but many of these leaders are just not there anymore. And it's leading to bad outcomes. 

And this isn't a partisan issue. The Dallas Express, that broke this story, is a conservative outlet. I am guessing the folks that own the paper were pretty angry that Granger wasn't there for the crucial budget vote that got passed this weekend, and understandably so. Granger was not fulfilling her duties and the folks that voted for her in 2022 were not being served by her. 

I can tell you first hand how annoying it is to not actually have a congressman. I live in Mike Gallagher's district in Wisconsin and after his unexpected retirement I was left without a congressman for many months until we got one back during election day (Tony Wied ran two campaigns, one for the 2024 term and one for the remainder of Gallagher's term). But at least in my case Gallagher's office was still open for the day to day stuff. 

It appears that Granger's office didn't even do that. She had a staff of around 25 people but their office was closed and there didn't appear to be any constituent services available. She and her staff were drawing a salary even though they weren't going to do anything to help the people. 

What is worse is that the GOP appears to have been somewhat complicit with this. Granger has made some public appearances after her last vote in July, but it should have been obvious that she was no longer fit to serve. But if it hadn't been for a local news outlet in Texas the people would have never known. 

It really does seem like we need some kind of reform on this area. We should not have a permanent political class that continues to run the country even though they aren't capable of doing the job. Some of this is the fact that a lot of these folks are in safe red or blue areas. At least when Biden was shown to be senile, we could vote him out of office, but how do you get rid of someone like Kay Granger? Granger won her post with 64% of the vote. She wisely didn't run in 2024, but if she had? Would there be any way to get rid of her? 


Elon Musk suggests some kind of test and there are such tests available, like the MMSE and SAGE tests that can be used to detect senility and dementia. But right now there isn't a way to actually get candidates and serving officials to take them. Both Trump and Biden laughed off attempts to take these tests and though Trump at least can point to his public appearances to show that he isn't senile, Biden did not. But regardless, these tests aren't mandatory but perhaps they should be?

Another possibility is term limits. Kay Granger has been in the house for 27 years, since 1997. Now I do think that the term limits proposed are a bit too low, you should be able to stay for more than two terms, but do we really need folks in office for more than 20 years? There perhaps should be some kind of limit, combined with age. 

Either way, I think this is going to be a scandal for the Republicans and one that is just going to frustrate people on both sides of the political spectrum. For the Presidency at least, we should be getting someone younger when Trump leaves office in 2028. But what are we going to do with all these ancient folks in congress? Because I doubt Granger is the only one that has issues... 


Friday, December 20, 2024

Car ramming attack in Germany leaves dozens injured.

 

The aftermath of the attack in Magdeburg Germany. AP. 

A car ramming attack on a Christmas market in Magdeburg Germany has left at least one person dead and dozens wounded. AP. The driver was arrested by police and the police have confirmed that it was a deliberate act. Video was taken of the attack and showed the vehicle ramming into dozens of people before driving off. Christmas markets are a strong tradition in Germany, but this is not the first attack of its kind on one. In 2016 an Islamic State supporter killed 13 people in Berlin in a similar attack, and was later killed by police in a shootout in Italy. No motive for this attack has been released at this time. 

My Comment:

This is a breaking news story and, as always, the casualty figures could change. Other sources are saying 11 dead and 60 wounded but those are not universal and many bigger outlets are going with the 1 dead 50 wounded numbers. It's very possible that both numbers could be wrong, so keep that in mind. 

As for the attack itself, it really isn't surprising. Christmas markets are key targets for vehicle ramming attacks as they usually have little in the way of defenses and are target rich environment. You have a huge number of people all crowded together and they may not have the ability to escape. That's exactly what happened here, I saw the video that was posted on social media and those folks had little chance. 

It hasn't been confirmed that this was Islamic terrorism, but that would be my bet. ISIS has a long history of vehicle ramming attacks so it would be somewhat surprising if it wasn't them. It wouldn't be unprecedented of course, a similar attack on a Christmas parade here in Wisconsin, the Waukesha ramming attack was committed by a black nationalist racist. But for what it is worth, there are photos of the arrest on social media and it looks like it was a vaguely Arabic looking man, though who knows if that is accurate. 

If it is ISIS or other Islamic terrorism I would not be surprised. ISIS has made a bit of a comeback recently and controls territory in both Syria and Afghanistan. It would no be surprising if they funded or at least inspired this attack. And there is always the threat of the attacker being a lone wolf, the low complexity of the attack certainly suggests that. 

There should be questions asked of the local German officials as to why there didn't appear to be any defenses at this market. All it takes is a moveable concrete barrier to block of car lanes to prevent most of these attacks. I couldn't see any on the video of the attack or in the aftermath, but either they weren't present or they were placed in such a way that the attacker was able to evade them. Either way, this was mostly likely a preventable attack. 

Thursday, December 19, 2024

Triple homicide suspect attempted to assassinate Nicholas Fuentes before being shot and killed by police.

 

Police tape near the scene of the crime. Chicago Tribune. 

Triple homicide suspect apparently tried to assassinate notorious America First leader Nicholas Fuentes before being shot and killed by police. Chicago Tribune. The man, John Lyons, was a suspect in a triple homicide against the Mason family in Mahomet Illinois. He then drove to Chicago to the home of Nicholas Fuentes, who had his address leaked online in the wake of his controversial "your body, my choice" statement in the wake of the election. The suspect knocked on the door but was unable to get inside to Fuentes, who had called the police during his stream. Lyons then fled into another home and shot and killed two dogs that were inside before getting into and losing a shootout with police. No police were harmed but Lyons was killed. The incident comes after Fuentes faced arrest after pepper spraying another person who had showed up and his house and comes after the high profile assassination of United Healthcare CEO Brian Thompson. 


My Comment:

Very strange story out of Chicago. Normally I don't cover this kind of story but given I have talked about Fuentes before and I think this incident may speak to larger issues, I think it is worth covering. This is a breaking news story though, so much of this will be speculation. 

This may be the only time I feel any sympathy for Nicholas Fuentes. He's a notorious figure and I have been disgusted with him ever since he and Milo Yiannapolus ambushed Donald Trump while Trump was trying to help Kanye West during his mental breakdown. I always thought that was an attempt to damage the career of Donald Trump and though most folks saw it for what it was, I have never forgiven either man. Since then he's been getting into all kinds of trouble and more than a few people think he's on the payroll of the government due to not being charged with his role on January 6th. 

He's also kind of an idiot. He's gotten all kinds of personal scandals and has also trolled the world. Folks were not happy with him when he made his "your body my choice" statement after the election. He was doxed and some crazy lefty lady ended up showing up at his house and got maced and had her phone stolen for the trouble. He has a ton of enemies on all sides of the political spectrum and even if ignoring his politics, he's kind of a joke. He's a right wing Chris-Chan, a notorious internet figure.   

But he also almost got murdered. To his credit, he was smart enough to not open the door, perhaps learning a lesson from the lady he maced. Indeed, she might have indirectly saved his life as he might have opened the door if that hadn't happened. Regardless, had the killer managed to get close enough to Fuentes I have no doubt that he would have tried to kill him, and given the guy killed three people and two dogs, I think he would have succeeded. 

It's unclear what the motive of this crime was. We have very little information on the family he killed or why he targeted them. It's even possible that he wasn't actually involved, though I doubt that at this point. What we can say for sure is that he was targeting Fuentes directly. Fuentes posted video that showed him saying "Hey Nick" and trying to enter his home. That shows that this wasn't some kind of random crime, but a targeted attack. 

What do I think happened? Well, regardless of his motivation in killing the Mason family, I think after that he probably drew inspiration from the murder of United Healthcare CEO Brian Thompson. The suspect in that case, who has gotten enough attention already to be named again here, is now a folk hero for some folks on the left. My guess is that Lyons was going for the same thing. He wanted to get the same adoration and press that the suspect in that case is getting now and since he was, at best, going to prison for a triple homicide he might as well. It might even have been a play for jury nullification, as enough people hate Fuentes that they could hang a jury on the triple homicide, as sad as it is to say. That is of course speculation, but I am guessing we will find out the truth as the media catches on to this story.

I do think that we are probably going to see more of this, regardless of the actual motive. There has been a large number of high profile assassination and assassination attempts on public figures, mostly on the right or at least enemies of the left, including this case, the Brian Thompson murder and the two attempts on Donald Trump's life. The intense media coverage of these cases appears to be causing copycats and it may overtake school shootings as the go too outlet for angry folks looking to get famous. 

I also think that folks that are media personalities like Fuentes are at a higher risk. Fuentes apparently has security (unless he's just trying to grift on that) but a lot of smaller folks don't have that luxury. And all it takes is one disturbed person to get an address or work location and something like this could happen again. 

As for Fuentes himself, I am sure he will exploit this for sympathy and money. To be fair to him, he has a case this time, he was absolutely almost just murdered. But it's still frustrating that he is going to milk this for all it is worth. I am glad that he wasn't killed, even idiots like him don't deserve to be murdered over politics, but I also wish he would take the hint and get out of the public space. He's not someone that I like at all and I hate that I am in a position where I have to kind of defend him a bit. 

Tuesday, December 17, 2024

Donald Trump sues Des Moines Register after Iowa polling disaster.

 

President-Elect Donald J. Trump. BBC/Getty.

Donald Trump has filed a lawsuit against the Des Moines Register over a wildly inaccurate 2024 poll. BBC. Trump accused the pollster, J. Ann Selzer of "blatant election interference" for the poll that showed Kamala Harris with a 3 to 4 point lead in Iowa. All other polling Iowa showed Trump in a comfortable lead and he went on to carry the state by 13 points. Trump accused Selzer of intentionally skewing the poll results to damage his campaign and help prop up a faltering Harris campaign. Trump has been litigious lately, winning a settlement against ABC News, which falsely accused him of being found guilty of rape. 

My Comment:

I am not sure, but this seems like a fairly unprecedented development. As far as I know, nobody has sued for an outlier poll before. But this was hardly just any poll. It caused an absolute firestorm when it was released and it did indeed give some lifeblood to the Harris campaign. 

The question is if it was just a genuine mistake by the pollster, J. Ann Selzer, or if she did this with malice. There is an argument to be made for both, and I am sure both sides will be heard in court assuming the case isn't settled. 

Polling is a tricky business after all, they have very consistently had trouble polling for Trump supporters and that was just as true in 2024. It's very possible that Selzer just screwed up and was polling the absolute worst demographics for the election in Iowa. From what I have heard she did try to focus on college towns which could obviously skew the results. That alone could have been enough to get these crazy results. 

But it's also very possible that this was a push poll, done on purpose to try and help the Harris campaign. Supposedly the poll results were forwarded to some Democrats before the poll was released, which at least gives the appearance of corruption. 

What makes me think it was the 2nd option was that Selzer had a good reputation as a pollster until 2024. Indeed, her earlier polls in the cycle were a lot more accurate. And she had to know what the implications would be if she focused on the college towns instead of the more traditional rural areas of the state. And she also had to know the trends with the rest of the polling industry and the internal polls of both the Democrats and Republicans that showed Trump ahead in Iowa. In short, she's too good at her job to be this incompetent. 

Will Trump win his lawsuit? It's possible. The Des Moines Register might just want this to go away and they could settle like ABC News did. If Trump's claims are found to be true, which I think they will be, they probably stand to lose a lot more than they would if they just settled. And I think Trump is at least likely to win the court case as he would in a defamation claim against ABC News. 

Of course the real effect will be that folks will be scared to try and do this again. Folks in the polling industry now know that if a poll is farcical then they risk a lawsuit over it. This should help against this kind of thing happening again.

And to be clear, this did have an effect in the 2024 race. The Harris camp and the Democrats were in desperation territory before this poll came out. They were afraid that folks would just stay home and not even vote because there was no point. So this poll came out and gave them some kind of hope right when things were at their lowest and gave them a shot in the arm. It ended up not mattering, Harris lost in a landslide, but if this was a closer race like 2020 was then it could have turned the course of the election. I do think that if this was a case of a pollster lying than there absolutely should be a punishment for it. Our elections do depend on accurate polling to a degree and if this was a case of the pollster going above and beyond to try and swing the race than they should absolutely be punished for it.