Boots on the ground in Israel. Biden deploys THAAD system to Israel.

 

File photo of the THAAD launcher. BBC/AFP.

The Biden administration is deploying 100 troops to Israel to operate a Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery. BBC. Joe Biden said the move is to defend Israel which recently came under attack from Iran. Israel is rumored to be targeting Iran in another tit-for-tat strike in response to Iran's attack, which was in response to several attacks on Hezbollah by Israel. It is unclear why the THAAD battery is being deployed, Israel has a well developed air defense system including their own anti-ballistic missile systems, the Arrow-2 and Arrow-3's. However, several of Iran's ballistic missiles appeared to pass through these systems and Israel's Iron Dome system, raising questions about the effectiveness of the system and fears Israel is running out of weapons. The US has assisted Israel in shooting down missiles before, mostly using their ships posted in the Red Sea, but this is the first time US forces would be deployed in Israel. The THAAD battery consists of six trucks armed with 48 missiles and costs a billion dollars and requires 100 troops to operate them. 

My Comment:

Though most Americans support Israel, I get the feeling that this deployment will be unpopular. The most recent polling I have seen on this issue says 56% of Americans are opposed to sending troops to Israel if they are attacked by Iran. That poll was from August so it's possible things have changed since then.  

The small scale of the deployment could change things. There are only 100 troops in this deployment and it's unlikely they will be targeted directly. The Russians have become effective at targeting anti-air systems in Ukraine but I don't think Iran is on that level. It's unlikely that these troops will be attacked and if they are it's unlikely anyone will be injured or killed. 

Will one battery make much of a difference? I guess it could. The last attack Iran pulled was 180 ballistic missiles so 48 missiles wouldn't be enough to intercept them all. But with the fleet in the Red Sea and Israel's own formidable defenses it should help. But it's going to be a one shot deployment unless we are going to send replacement missiles. And these weapons aren't cheap, it's a $1 billion for the whole system. Some of that is the vehicles and computers but the missiles themselves aren't cheap at $12.6 per missiles. This could get pretty costly for the United States quickly. 

I also think that this deployment is a pretty big hint that Israel is going to respond to Iran's missile attack. They have been pretty cagey and are obviously distracted by their invasion in Lebanon, which appears to have been fairly low key so far. But a response looks like it is going to happen. And when it does, depending on what form it is, Iran is likely to launch another attack, especially if Israel targets their nuclear and energy production. 

There's a real fear that there is going to be a large scale war. But I also fear that this will just be the status quo in the Middle East. Neither Israel or Iran are really powerful enough to destroy each other unless they use nuclear weapons, and maybe not even then. Cooler heads have to prevail but right now they are stuck in a cycle of revenge, both sides have to respond or lose a lot of face. 

Which is why I am mostly opposed to this deployment. Though I am more sympathetic to Israel than their enemies, I do not support sending troops there. We don't really need to get involved in a cycle of revenge that could just go on forever now. If Israel wants our THAAD batteries they should buy it from us, not have them given to them. 

I am also worried about how much of our weapons we are expending for questionable purposes. We already have deployed so many of our best weapons to Ukraine that it will take years, maybe even decades, to build up our weapons. And now we are sending our best anti-ballistic missiles to Israel? How are we ever going to rebuild our weapons if we are burning through them this fast? 

Armed man arrested at Trump's California campaign event at Coachella.

 

The Trump rally at Coachella California. New York Post/USA Today.

An armed man was arrested at Donald Trump's campaign event at Coachella California, raising fears of another assassination attempt. New York Post. The 49 year old suspect is named Vem Miller and was arrested after presenting a phony press pass. He was discovered with a handgun, shotgun and California illegal magazine, along with additional phony documents. The local sheriff, Chad Bianco, said that the incident was a third assassination attempt on Donald Trump. However, both the Secret Service and the FBI do not believe this was one and the suspect says the idea that he was an attempted assassination was "complete bullshit". Miller was able to talk to the press because he was released on a $5000 bond. Miller is a member of the Sovereign Citizens movement, which does not recognize federal authority over citizens. Ironically, the FBI says that Miller was not attempting to assassinate Trump and said that he had the weapons for personal protection only. 

EDIT: Fox News has put up an interview with Miller who denies he is a Sovereign Citizen, says his documents are legit and says he would never harm Trump because he supports him. 

My Comment:

Strange story out of California and one that is fairly confusing. There is a pretty dramatic disagreement between this local sheriff and the federal government as to what this guy was trying to do. Was he trying to attack Donald Trump? Did he have some other plan? Or was he just an idiot that decided to go to a Trump rally with guns in his vehicle and fake documents? 

Miller is a Sovereign Citizen and admittedly that group is fairly dangerous. However they don't seem to be the kind of folks that would assassinate a presidential candidate. They don't recognize federal or state authority so the folks most at risk from Sovereign Citizens are people that enforce that authority, like local police or federal agents. 

I have actually met a few Sovereign Citizens and, hilariously enough, despite the stereotype of them being angry White guys, in both cases they were black men. I never got the idea that they were really dangerous, just very misguided and with little actual understanding of the law. Indeed, one of them sued the company they were working for because they took money out for federal taxes. I never heard how that case played out but I can't imagine it did well.  

I don't know why a Sovereign Citizen would want to harm Donald Trump. I don't think they would like him since he's trying to be in charge of the federal government, but to attack him? It doesn't make sense to me. There are people on the "right" that don't like Trump, but they are either neocons that have largely been kicked out of the Republican Party or out and out white nationalists like Nick Fuentes that hate Trump because he isn't racist. 

The only thing that makes me think that this could be legit is the fact that he had fake documents to try and get into the media area. It's very possible that was just him being an idiot, trying to scam his way to better seats, but it's also possible that he wanted to get close enough to get a shot at Trump. It was a terrible plan regardless, he wasn't going to fool the people working security and even if he did it would have been very hard to get a gun that close to a former President. 

I actually think that the FBI and Secret Service is right, this was not an assassination attempt. The fact that this guy is out on bail is a big hint that nobody really thinks this was a real attempt. I am guessing that the local sheriff is trying to hype up what his guys did, which, to be fair, was good police work. I don't see Miller getting charged with anything other than the gun crimes he committed. 

What do  I think actually happened? Well, Miller is the kind of person that thinks that the rules don't apply to him so he printed out fake documents because he wanted to see the Trump rally up close. He had guns in his car because of course he did, he's a Sovereign Citizen and they generally don't recognize any gun laws, especially the ones in California. Security caught him with his fake documents and the sheriff is hyping the story for local political reasons. 

Still, under the current political climate, can anyone be blamed for being nervous about this situation? There is no question in my mind that Miller is absolutely the kind of guy you don't want anywhere near a presidential candidate that has already undergone two assassination attempts, one of which injured him. I am certainly glad that they were able to catch this guy even though I think it is unlikely that this was an actual attempt on Donald Trump's life... 

Are North Korean soldiers fighting in Ukraine for Russia?

 

Kim Jong Un and Vladimir Putin. The Guardian/AFP/KNS.

Ukraine and South Korea claim that North Korean troops are actively fighting in the Ukraine conflict for Russia. The Guardian. They claim there are dozens of North Korean troops operating North Korean KN-23 missiles. Supposedly North Korean engineers were killed in a strike behind enemy lines. Foreign fighters are common on both sides of the conflict but if North Korea were sending troops to participate in the fighting it would be first time a country has done so. North Korea has provided a large number of weapons to Russia and would stand to gain from sending troops as they could gain experience and evaluate the effectiveness of weapons. The KN-23 missiles are short range ballistic missiles developed by North Korea and have proven effective in strikes against Ukraine. 

Russia, for its part, says the reports of North Koreans fighting in Ukraine are "fake news". 

My Comment:

It's hilarious to see the hand wringing over this story. The elephant in the room is that NATO troops have been unofficially participating in the war for years. Many of the more advanced weapons we have given Ukraine, like our Patriot missile batteries and various long range missiles, are being manned by "volunteers" (ie active duty troops put on leave and fighting as mercenaries) from various NATO countries. To whine about Russia doing the same thing is a joke. 

But is it even true? It's possible. The KN-23 is a North Korean developed weapon and it's very possible that Russia cannot operate these weapons themselves. Just like NATO weapons it might require specialists trained in the operation of these weapons. Indeed, it's probably more likely than not, it's literally rocket science. 

There are other reasons as well. The KH-23 had never been used in combat before it showed up in Ukraine and I am guessing they needed to evaluate the effectiveness. These weapons do appear to be effective and I think the North Koreans are pleased. It's win-win for both parties as well, as Russia obviously gets some much needed fire support. These weapons are extremely powerful and can do a lot of damage to Ukranian positions. I do wonder how accurate these weapons are, but that's what the North Koreans want to find out. 

It's possible that the story is fake news. Russia certainly has a lot of experience with ballistic missiles and perhaps the weapon is easier to operate than we think. Given the support Russia has given North Korea it's even possible they helped a bit with development. And it's also possible that the North Korean troops were only there for a very short time for training Russians and evaluating the missiles. I think that this possibility is probably less likely than North Koreans actually being in the country. Though if they are there I have zero idea if some of those troops were killed, it's obviously very possible but I don't trust either side to tell the truth. 

I actually think that North Korea would probably gain from sending some actual ground troops to Ukraine as well. North Korea hasn't been involved in a war in a very long time and it would do them well to form a cadre of troops that have at least some experience in combat. And the fighting they could see in Ukraine would be similar to what they could see in a major conflict with South Korea (and possibly the United States). 

Regardless, the real story continues to be the steady rate of advance that Russia is seeing in Ukraine now. These North Korean missiles are a small part of this, but the real problem for Ukraine is that Russia's attritional warfare is working. Ukraine just doesn't have the soldiers left to continue the fight and keep losing a ton of troops. They are running out of weapons and troops and probably time as well... 

Democrats are getting nervous about the election...

 

Kamala Harris official portrait. 

The Democrats are getting nervous about the state of the race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. The Hill. Democrats have real concerns about her candidate, from her performance with men, poll numbers and the messaging that has been coming from Harris. The 2024 election is in many ways unique, with the Trump assassination attempts, the removal of Joe Biden as a candidate, to the racial and gender background of Kamala Harris being unprecedented and Trump running for a 2nd non-consecutive term. Democrats say they have some advantages as national polling has been better for Harris than in the swing states and Harris luckily avoided a major crisis as America's longshoremen called off a strike at the last minute. Harris has also tried to refocus her campaign moving from doing almost no media appearances to an absolute blitz that was focused on drawing in Hispanic and Black voters. However, Democrats have been critical of her media appearances with strategists saying it is too late to be fine tuning her messages. 

My Comment:

I think Democrats are right to be nervous. There are a lot of signs that show that Trump is actually doing very well. Indeed, the betting markets and some of the polling averages show him leading in almost all the swing states, with only Nevada seeming to be in the Harris column. There are also some polling showing surprisingly close races in Virginia, New Hampshire and Minnesota.  And that is the public polling, from what I understand the internal polling for both the Democrats and Republicans, which tends to be much more accurate, are a lot worse for Harris. 

The news for Harris has been almost universally bad. The fact that the article cited the national polling, which isn't super relevant with the electoral college, is not a good sign. The end of the longshoreman strike was indeed good news for Harris and bad news for Trump, but that's about the only thing that has broke her way. Hilariously they have been trying to tout "good" economic news when everyone is still suffering from the absolutely devastating impact of inflation. 

Indeed, the past few weeks have been terrible for Harris. Hurricane Helene, and now Milton, are causing withering criticism for Harris and the Biden administration. Some of that criticism is silly, like the weather control nonsense that keeps popping up for some reason, but FEMA's response has been terrible and both Harris and Biden acted like they didn't care at all. It is not hard to show up in a less affected area and hand out water bottles, but Harris was busy fundraising in California. Indeed, she still hasn't really convinced me that she cares about the folks affected by these hurricanes and it's telling that the media is focusing on "fake news" instead of touting the government response. 

Speaking of Joe Biden, it sure seems like he is trying to undermine Kamala Harris out of revenge for being replaced. Biden scheduled two press conferences, which he essentially never does, during appearances that Kamala Harris was doing, once during a speech and once during a media appearance on The View. He's also made statements tying Harris to every unpopular thing he has done and it's even rumored that her team and his came to actual blows, though who knows if that is true? 

And these media appearances? They appear to be out of desperation. Harris had hoped to replicate the Biden strategy of not appearing in the media and just relying on people not liking Trump that much, but that obviously wasn't working. But the media appearances have backfired. Harris is not a good speaker and even with friendly interviewers she still had several major gaffes, mostly dealing with her actual plans and how she's different than Joe Biden. Those were layup questions and she still botched it and I think it is hurting her. 

Of course it's not all on Kamala Harris, the Trump campaign has stepped up their game as well. Trump has been more disciplined and more on message since the 2nd Debate and has toned down the kind of rhetoric that the normies dislike. His response to Hurricane Helene was a lot better too, he showed up and acted presidential, which is more than can be said for Harris or Biden. And JD Vance showed that he's a worthy VP and possible President in his own right during an excellent debate and may have ended Tim Walz's political career. 

Still much of this is just opinion on my part, but I would say that I think the writing is on the wall. Trump is certainly acting like he's in the lead. Not only is he barn burning in the swing state, he's also making appearances in blue states as well. I went in depth with his visit to California this weekend, but that's not all. He's also visiting Aurora Colorado to bring more attention to immigration problems and is going to Madison Square Garden, presumably just because he can. That, combined with a slate of swing state polls showing Trump ahead in most of them (though frustratingly not in the same polls, what was up with Quinnipiac showing Trump ahead in Michigan and Wisconsin but not Pennsylvania?), and the general unlikability of Kamala Harris makes me think that Trump has this in the bag. 

Something could still happen, but it would really have to be the black swans of all black swans, like a successful assassination attempt against Trump, as horrible as it is to mention it. The only other ways I can see Harris possibly winning is either a massive polling error in her favor, which would be unprecedented considering the fact that national polling errors tend to go the other, or an absolutely massive amount of voter fraud. Both things are possible, and not mutually exclusive, but I would seriously doubt it.

FBI arrests Afghan man for election day terror plot...

 

FBI Headquarters in Washington DC.BBC/Getty.

The FBI has arrested an Afghan man for an election day terror plot. BBC. The suspect is a 27 year old man from Afghanistan named Nasir Ahmad Tawhedi. He was an ISIS supporter and had sent money to an ISIS front charity and had also evacuated his family in preparation for his attack. Tawhedi was seeking to purchase multiple AK-style rifles but ended up trying to purchase them from the FBI and was arrested. His plan was to attack a large group of people on election day and was researching targets in Washington DC. Tawhedi was on a special immigrant visa after the fall of Kabul. 

My Comment:

Once again, a stupid terrorist got caught. I think this guy would have been able to purchase firearms legally since he was a legal resident and living in Oklahoma. Instead of purchasing weapons from a gun dealer which he probably would have been able to do, he tried to get AK's from someone he should have obviously suspected was an FBI agent. 

Still, this was a serious threat. Had this man gotten rifles he would have been able to carry out this plot. It looked like he just wanted to do a mass shooting in the name of ISIS and that isn't particularly hard to pull off. Getting in the country was the hardest part and he was already here. If he had gotten those weapons and found a crowded place in DC he could have killed a lot of people. And given the long lines on election day... 

Indeed, this could have actually affected the course of the election. A lot of people vote on election day itself and if someone shot up a polling place it could scare a lot of people away from the polls, which could lead to unpredictable results. It's something that hasn't actually happened yet but it is something I have thought about a lot. 

It is also concerning that this guy was plotting in favor of ISIS. Far from being destroyed, ISIS is having a bit of a comeback. They no longer control much in the way of territory but they still exist and are still pulling off terror attacks. Indeed, the most powerful ISIS group left is in Afghanistan. Though they are a shadow of what they once were, they are still inspiring people to commit terror attacks. 

This also seems like an obvious consequence to letting thousands of Afghans into the country in the wake of the fall of Kabul. Some of those folks we owed it to because they worked for us and would have been killed by the Taliban. But there wasn't much in the way of vetting when these people were brought in and I would not be surprised if this was the only terrorist that managed to get into the country. I know that Haitians and Venezuelans have gotten most of the bad press, it's not like the Afghans we have brought in aren't causing problems of their own, and this is a good example of that.