Sunday, February 23, 2025

Another mass stabbing in Europe. One killed and several injured in a terror attack in France.

 

Emmanuel Macron. Politico/AFP/Getty

Another mass stabbing as rocked Europe with one killed and several injured in an attack described as an "Islamic terrorist act". Politico. The attack occurred in Mulhouse in the Alsace region and a 37 year old Algerian man who was already on a terror watchlist and was wanted for deportation. The man attacked police first and when a passerby civilian tried to intervene the man stabbed the civilian, fatally wounding him. The attacker shouted "Allah Akbar". The man was supposed to have been deported but Algeria would not take him back. The President of France, Emmanuel Macron, condemned the attack and said there was no doubt that it was Islamic terrorism. 

My Comment:

It seems like every couple of days there is a mass stabbing committed by some lone wolf terrorist. The last couple of attacks were in Germany but this one is in France. France has their own Islam problem and they have the added difficulty of being a former colonial power in Muslim majority nations. 

What is infuriating about this is the fact that this man was not only a terror watchlist, he was supposed to be deported. The fact that he was so bad that even France wanted him gone should show you how dangerous he was. 

But the problem was that even Macron couldn't get rid of this man. Somehow Algeria was able to say "he's your problem France, deal with it". That is insane to me. How can a country refuse the deportation of their citizens? I guess it shows how limited France's hard power is, or how poorly they choose to use it. You would think they could spend a little political capital to force Algeria to take back folks like this which are obviously going to cause problems. 

The specific circumstances of this attack are a good reason why both the police and the public are armed. Unliked the armed soldiers that protect sensitive areas of France, most French police are not armed. And forget about the good Samaritan who tried to help and got stabbed to death for the trouble. If even one of those folks would have been properly armed then the attacker would be dead and the good Samaritan would still be alive. 

Still, at least there's one guy in France that is willing to stand up to a terrorist. Funnily enough, other sources say he was a 69 year old man from Portugal. Regardless of where he is from, it's possible that he saved someone's life. Supposedly one of the police officers had a cut to his carotid artery, so if the attack had continued, the terrorist could have finished him off. 

Regardless, it does seem like this problem is getting worse. It took awhile but a new wave of European terrorism appears to be happening. And with little stomach for the kinds of mass deportation that actually dealing with the problem I don't see it getting any better... 

Thursday, February 20, 2025

A DOGE rebate has been proposed, but will the $5000 checks ever be cut?

 

Donald Trump speaking on Air Force One. Yahoo Finance/AFP.

A DOGE rebate has been proposed that would give taxpayers a $5000 check, but will the DOGE dividend ever happen? Yahoo Finance. Both President Trump and Elon Musk have expressed support of the idea that would use 20% of the original goal of a $2 trillion reduction to send to taxpayers. But it is unclear how DOGE would get that much funding cut when the goal has now been cut to a $1 trillion reduction. And DOGE would have a long way to go to reach that level of cuts as it has only cut $55 billion in funding. The payment would also require action from congress as well, and it may be tough to pass due to deficit hawks in the Republican Party. Trump also said that tariffs, which have mostly not been put into place, could help pay for the checks. 

My Comment:

This isn't a bad idea but I also just don't see it happening. Though the article is pessimistic about the chances of cutting enough government waste to actually pay for the $5000 checks, it's not actually the biggest hurdle and that's congress. 

I do think that giving people back some of their money that has been wasted on things like transgender plays in Columbia and other such nonsense is justified. The tax payers in this country are getting fleeced and it would be good for them to get at least some of their money back. 

There are worries that this could cause inflation, and to a degree there is some justification for that. When folks spend more money it does cause inflation, but I don't think we would see the post-pandemic stagflation we saw after the pandemic after Biden took office. The inflation wasn't just caused by folks spending money due to stimulus checks, but also because we borrowed and printed money to pay for it. This would be money that we already have printed so inflation, while still a concern, would not be as severe. Tariffs would help to reduce the amount of inflation as they would strengthen the dollar and export our inflation to other countries. That might be the answer to worries about inflation. 

Regardless, like I said, the real problem is congress and I can't see this passing. The Democrats in congress are extremely unlikely to vote for this as it would be popular for voters and given how rough their electoral chances are after 2024, I doubt they would want to give Trump a free win. 

But the real problem is the Republicans. They don't actually need any Democrats to vote for this package as they control the House and Senate. But the deficit hawk of the party wants to pay down the national debt and balance the budget instead and they would want to use this money for that. To be fair, the proposal already earmarks 20% of the savings to paying down debt, but for deficit hawks, that's not nearly enough. 

I do think they have a point. The national debt is out of control, to the point where 13% of the entire budget is going to paying down interest. Getting rid of this debt would be a very good thing and though the best time to have dealt with the problem was 20 years ago, the 2nd best time is now. Still, even if all $1 trillion in possible savings would be spent on reducing the debt, it would still be a drop in the bucket given how massive our debt problem actually is. Total national debt is around $35 trillion so while getting it down to $34 trillion would be an improvement it doesn't actually solve the problem. 

Still, it's possible that a deal for smaller checks could be made.  If the size of the checks was reduced considerably, perhaps $1000 to $500 and the rest going to paying down debt, the deficit hawks could be brought on board? That would at least get folks some money while the lions share of the money goes to their priority of reducing the debt. Keep in mind the original figure was for a $2 trillion savings and that doesn't appear to be in the cards. $5000 was probably never really in the cards. 

Of course it's way too soon to make any real predictions, we don't know how much money DOGE is going to be able to cut. There is still a long way to go before we cut enough where the checks would even be worth cutting. The higher estimate of DOGE savings is $55 billion, and if we cut a check with that folks would be getting around $150, assuming the 20% ratio (but please, don't trust my math!). Until that number is a lot higher, this is just an academic discussion. 

Wednesday, February 19, 2025

The Trump and Zelensky relationship appears to have soured dramatically.

 

Ukraine's President Zelensky and President Trump during a pre-election meeting. Fox News/Reuters

Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine have traded barbs on social media as their relationship appears to have soured. Fox News. Trump harshly criticized Zelensky on his Truth Social account, going so far as to call Zelensky a dictator for not holding elections. Trump also criticized Zelensky for being a "moderately successful comedian" who was only good at getting money from Joe Biden. Zelensky had said that Trump was living in a "disinformation space" after Trump said that Ukraine bears responsibility for the start of the war. The spat comes after high level talks between Russia and the United States, which did not involve Ukraine or Europe. Zelensky has remained President despite his term ending a year ago and has refused to hold elections. 


My Comment:

It appears the relationship between Trump and Zelensky has collapsed entirely. The two men had an apparent good relationship dating back to Trump's first term, but that appears to be over. This spat between the two men is probably the end of their supposed friendship.

I had great hopes for Zelensky when he was elected. He ran as a peace candidate, one that would end the civil war between the Ukrainian ethnic of Western Ukraine and the Russians of Donbass. I had hoped that Zelensky would have agreed to a federal solution where the Russian of Ukraine would have protections and some level of independence. 

Instead Zelensky betrayed his voters and escalated the war instead of ending it. He did nothing to end the anti-Russian laws the country had put into place and he never seemed serious on making a deal with Russia. 

And he has not been a very good wartime leader. The one thing he was good at was as a symbol to folks susceptible to propaganda. But he has made so many errors, from not ending the war when Russia offered a decent peace deal in the early part of the war, to the failed summer offensive in 2023 and the insane Kursk incursion when it was clear the war was lost. None of it was smart and none of it was in the best interest of his people. 

But it was his cancelation of elections that gave lie to the entire western justification of the war. We were supposed to be "defending democracy", whatever that is supposed to mean, but canceling an election is about the most undemocratic thing anyone can do. And no, the war isn't an excuse. The United States held elections during World War II, the lead up to our entry of World War I and, most critically, during our own Civil War. If we could do it then, Ukraine absolutely could do it now. And they should. 

Zelensky is in kind of an impossible situation here. He's rapidly running out of allies, only Europe really supports him now, and that includes factions in his own country. If he does do what Trump wants, at the very least, he will be voted out of office. At worst, he might be assassinated by the Banderite faction, the actual Nazis that have a disturbing amount of influence in Ukraine. But if he further angers Trump he risks Trump throwing up his hands and saying "let Europe deal with it, we don't care anymore". 

It does sound like Trump taking the ball and going home seems to be the most likely situation. If Ukraine won't hold elections, it's the perfect off-ramp for the United States. If Zelensky is replaced than Trump can have an actual partner in ending the war. Either way, Trump wants better relations with Russia and wants the end of US involvement in what he sees (and I agree is) a pointless war that has killed far too many good people on both sides. 

Like I have been saying for awhile now, I still think the most likely end to the war is complete Russian victory. That seems pretty likely now, with Zelensky losing influence and a major deal between Russia and Ukraine difficult to imagine. A deal might be possible but it would require Zelensky to see the writing on the wall and Ukraine to survive long enough to actually hold elections. 

Tuesday, February 18, 2025

USA and Russia meet in Saudi Arabia and make progress in normalizing ties.

 

The American and Russian delegations meeting in Saudi Arabia. Fox News/AP.

The United States and Russia met in Saudi Arabia and have made progress in normalizing ties and possibly ending the war in Ukraine. Fox News. Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with Russian Foreign Minster Sergey Lavrov and agreed to a framework to end the war. Reports say that both sides agree that Ukraine has to hold elections if any peace deal is to be made. Ukrainian President Zelensky is likely to lose any such election and will almost certainly be replaced by someone more willing to negotiate and possibly someone more sympathetic to Russia. However, the meeting was also about trying to normalize relations between Russia and America, which have degraded massively under the Biden administration. It is notable that both Ukraine and the rest of Europe were shut out of the talks in Saudi Arabia. 

My Comment:

As important as the Ukraine war is, the real goal of his meeting was normalizing relations. From what I understand that was successful as well. Supposedly, it was agreed that they would fully staff their embassies again, which is a major win. Even if the Ukraine talks don't pan out, at the very least we are a lot less close to World War III than we were under Joe Biden. 

They also agreed to a major meeting between Putin and Donald Trump. That will be a diplomatic coup as well. The two men used to have a good working relationship though obviously they haven't met in person for awhile. Unlike Biden, who openly hated Putin, Trump is at least willing to work with Russia and may be able to further normalize ties to the point where sanctions are dropped. 

Of course the big news is of course Ukraine. It seems very clear that there are going to have to be elections for a peace deal to happen. Keep in mind, Zelensky's term ended last year and he canceled elections. He's not a legitimate President right now and that has to change if Ukraine is going to be at the table for any negotiations. 

This is, of course, bad news for Zelensky. He's not going to win any election, which is why he didn't hold them in the first place. He made noise about it not being possible while in a war, though that was never an argument that held any water. He has little choice but to hold elections either, if he refuses then President Trump has the perfect excuse to cut him off entirely. 

I have zero sympathy for Zelensky, by the way. I took it rather personally that the man was elected for one reason and one reason alone, to end the war, and he betrayed that promise as bad as I have ever seen anyone betray anything. Zelensky pretty much destroyed his entire country because Biden ordered him to and I won't forgive that. I hope that any deal made ends with Zelensky in a small cell somewhere for the rest of his life... 

There is a long way to go to any peace deal in Ukraine. Russia was always going to be hard to convince as they know that any deal they make with Trump could be overturned by whoever replaces Trump in 2028. Putin can't risk Ukraine being able to rejoin the war in four years if a Democrat or neocon Republican wins in 2028. 

But it does seem like things are moving on that front. I am guessing that a peace deal is possible, at least. I still think the most likely deal is that an agreement isn't made and Ukraine collapses and Russia wins militarily. Given the low morale, lack of weapons and manpower, and the absolutely idiotic military actions Ukraine has taken, it's very possible that Ukraine collapses on its own before any deal can be made. 

I am not surprised that both Ukraine and Europe were shut out of these talks. For one, it wasn't primary about them, like I said the main reason was to normalize ties to a degree. But I don't think Ukraine or Europe is serious about ending the war and normalizing ties with Russia. If they aren't willing to play ball, why invite them to the table? 

Monday, February 17, 2025

Leader of the "Zizian" transgender vegan cult arrested in Maryland. The cult was linked to several murders.

 

The mugshots of Jack "Ziz" LaSota and Michelle Zajko. Fox News.

The leader of the "Zizian" cult, a group of mostly transgender radical vegans, has been arrested in Maryland. Fox News. Jack "Ziz" LaSota and Michelle Zaiko were arrested by police in Maryland after a manhunt. The cult, which is a group of so called "rationalists" that are greatly concerned about AI, is linked to several homicides, including the murder of Border Patrol agent David Maland. The two were charged with firearms charges and trespassing while  Zaiko was also charged with resisting arrest. Zaiko was accused of purchasing the firearms that two cult members, Felix "Ophelia" Bauckholt and Teresa "Milo" Consuelo Youngblut, used in the shootout with the border patrol. Bauckholt was killed in the shootout. Zaiko is also a person of interest in two other murder cases, one a double homicide in Pennsylvania and another homicide in California. 

My Comment:

I've been following this case since the shootout with the border patrol and I was very surprised at the connection to the rationalists. I've been reading some of the folks from the rationalist movement for awhile now, most notably Scott Alexander and some of the spinoff sites from his blog, including the former blog and now the spinoff site, TheMotte. They are, at least, interesting and have had some influence in America today. 

The rationalists were supposed to be about using good reasoning to discover the best way to do things. Generally speaking they are center-left (though the spinoff sites like TheMotte are more right wing) and somewhat opposed to the far left "woke" people, but they are also focused on some strange things. Certainly the focus on veganism always baffled me as it seemed like an obvious flaw to lump in animals as the same moral worth as humans. And they are also extremely concerned about AI, to the point where some folks literally drove themselves insane worrying about it. 

The Zizians appear to have spun off from them and are dramatically more radical. They are extremely vegan and justify violence because of it. They are also mostly (completely?) made up of transgender people, which means reporting on it is extremely difficult due to trying to figure out who is a biological male or female. 

The murder of the border patrol agent David Maland was the biggest story for them, but it's hardly the only crime they have committed. They were involved in a major disturbance at a AI conference but it's the other homicides that are really disturbing. The Pennsylvania homicides were supposedly about the parents of one of the cult members, Michelle Zaiko, not accepting their transgender status. 

But it's the California homicide that really gets to me. Curtis Lind was an 80 year old landlord that was renting property to the Zizians and when the group devolved from tenants to squatters he threatened to evict them. In response, two Zizians attacked him with knives and swords. Despite having a sword literally sticking out of him, Lind was able to retrieve a firearm and shot his attackers, killing Emma Borhania. Two other Zizians were charged in the crime for the attack and the death of Borhania. Lind survived the attack but was hospitalized for months, and lost one of his eyes. 

Those two, Suri Dao and Alexander Jeffrey Leatham, were set to stand trial and Lind was going to testify against him. But at 82 years old Lind was stabbed to death after fleeing his home and living in fear that the cult would kill him. It appears they have succeed and Zaiko may have been the one responsible. 

Curtis Lind's Gofundme page before his death. Open Vallejo. 

This is probably the most heinous crime that the cult was involved with. Lind survived a horrible attack and saved his own life through extreme determination and bravery. And he was brave enough to testify against the folks that almost killed him. But he was murdered at 82 years of age because the cult wanted to silence him. It's horrible and one of the worst crimes I have heard of in awhile. 

The real question with the Zizians is what caused their violence. Ziz himself doesn't seem that charismatic but that isn't surprising to me. It's hard to tell how influential people are without meeting them in person. But was the violence due to their rationalist beliefs? Their veganism? Their transgenderism? Or the fact that they were all incredibly unattractive? 


Either way it's a fascinating story and it's one I would like to read more about. I know Kiwi Farms (NSFW link and a fairly notorious website) has a thread which I haven't had a chance to read yet and the rationalists themselves have put out some information. I hope that this is the end of this story but who know? This group has already been linked to six deaths (four murders and two cult members killed during their crimes) and if there are still more of them out there, we could see more...