Marine Le Pen barred from running in 2027 election in shock conviction.

 

Marine Le Pen, leader of National Rally. BBC/Getty.

Leader of the National Rally and the frontrunner for the 2027 election in France, Marine Le Pen was convicted of an embezzlement charge and will be barred from running. BBC. Le Pen appealed the decision but there would be no hold on the election ban, which will last five years. She was sentenced to 4 years in prison for misuse of EU funds, a crime virtually all political parties in France are guilty of. Due to that and the fact that the ruling would have massive political consequences, nobody really thought Le Pen would be convicted or punished. The conviction has come as a shock to the National Rally Party which now has a very uncertain future. Le Pen was the main draw for the party and it's unclear if she will somehow win her appeal or if she will be replaced, perhaps by Jordan Bardella, the president of the party? Le Pen was projected to get 42% of the vote, more than enough to win the first round of voting in the 2027 election, assuming nothing changes. 

My Comment:

The state of Democracy in the west is pretty deplorable. First there was Trump who was impeached, had an election stolen, he was almost assassinated twice and was convicted of a nonsense crime. He won anyways, but then there was the AFD being shut out in Germany despite being the 2nd most popular party, Romania and Ukraine having their elections canceled, Turkey jailing Erdogan's political opponent and now? Now the leading candidate in France's election, Marine Le Pen has been barred from running in a race she would have almost certainly would have won. 

Is she guilty of what she was convicted of? Probably. From what I understand the misuse of EU funds is pretty much universal among all French political parties, but only Marine Le Pen is getting convicted for it. It's a very obvious example of a two-tiered system. Something tells me if Emmanuel Macron's center left party won't be charged under the same laws. 

La Pen was likely to win in 2027. Macron has made a mess of things and Le Pen is fairly popular. But she's been labeled far-right, and for once the slur might have at least a little proof to it. Her father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, was canceled for not denouncing Nazis enough, though his daughter had little to do with that. There are folks that say that Le Pen was a liability for National Rally for this reason.

Though I am guessing it both her semi-skeptical views on Ukraine and immigration that are the real reason this case was brought. Both things are very unpopular among the normal folks but Europe has been pulling out all the stops to prevent anyone from seriously challenging it. 

If there is any good news for National Front, it's the fact that they have a lot of time to figure it out. The next election isn't until 2027, so that should be enough time to either double down on Le Pen or replace her with someone else. I am guessing they will keep their options open though right now it is far too early to figure out what they will actually be doing. 

The main problem I see for the powers that be is that this will almost certainly make Le Pen into a martyr. That is exactly how it happened with Donald Trump and though Le Pen might not be able to run in 2027, folks will vote for National March just because they are upset about what happened to her. Would Trump have won in 2024 if it wasn't for the shame prosecution? Maybe but it certainly helped him out. I think the same thing could very well happen in France in 2027... 

New Mexico GOP headquarters attacked in apparent arson incident.

 

The damage done to the GOP headquarters in Albuquerque New Mexico. Fox News/New Mexico GOP.

The New Mexico GOP headquarters was attacked in an apparent arson incident. Fox News. Firefighters responded to the fire shortly after the attack, greatly limiting the damage. No injuries were caused but the building suffered damage to the front doors and smoke damage inside. A political motive seems obvious as the building also had been vandalized with spray-paint saying "ICE=KKK". The attack is one of a series against Republicans, or people perceived to be Republicans, since Trump was sworn in as president. Local Democrats condemned the attack while law enforcement at the local and federal level investigate the attacks.  

My Comment:

Looks like another politically motivated attack against Republicans, this time in New Mexico. New Mexico is a semi-solid blue state so it's not like Republicans are actually doing much in the state. This is pure spite by the folks that did this. 

The wave of terrorism we are seeing reminds me of the days of rage back in the 1970's. Back then there was a large amount of attacks against the system conducted by far left activists. A few people even died during these attacks. Back then it was mostly the Vietnam war but today it's, well, I am not sure why these folks are even upset. 

The situation isn't exactly the same now though. Back then the militant left was on the ascent but today they are on a serious decline. The attack on the GOP headquarters in New Mexico and the attacks on Tesla across the nation (despite the cars mainly being owned by leftists) are a rear-guard action for a movement that lost all credibility after Donald Trump was elected for a 2nd term. 

If this attack is an anti-immigration enforcement action, then it's another example of how out of touch these folks are. Very few people are on the side of the illegal immigrants, especially the ones that are actual gang members. It's an 80-20 issue that the left is on the wrong side of. I guess it's possible the attack was conducted by an illegal immigrant but my guess is that this was done by antifa or a similar group. 

I do think it's only a matter of time before someone is hurt or killed in these kinds of attacks. Honestly, given the assassination attempt on Trump where he himself was injured along with a few other people, and a man, Corey Comperatore, was killed, they kind of already have been. In this case there wasn't anyone at the GOP headquarters when it was attacked but if folks had been there and the fire department wasn't on the ball, someone could have been hurt or killed. 

The problem is that I am not exactly impressed with how the Justice Department and FBI are being led right now. Kash Patel hasn't done much and what Pam Bondi has done is mostly go on Fox News and talked instead of actually doing anything to stop the problem. 

And I think if they put the effort in they could. The entire FBI was directed to focus on the folks that protested on January 6th so we know they have the ability to go after people if they actually want to. I am guessing the anti-Trump and anti-Tesla networks could have been disrupted easily if the FBI was actually trying. But as of now they are not and it's not great that we aren't seeing the same kind of reform at Justice as we are in other aspects in government. 

California under investigation for law that hides changes in "gender identity" from parents.

 

California Governor Gavin Newsom on his podcast with conservative pundit Charlie Kirk. Fox News/This is Gavin Newsom podcast.

California is under investigation for a law that hides changes in "gender identity" from parents. Fox News. The Department of Education launched the investigation after alleged violations of the Family Educational Rights Privacy Act (FERPA), which allows parents access to information pertaining to their children at schools. The Trump administration has said that the law would cover things like gender identity and mental health.  Assembly Bill 1955 was signed into law by Governor Gavin Newsom last year and it prevents teachers from disclosing information about sexual orientation, gender identity or expression without the consent of the student. Critics say the law protects students from being "outed" to their parents. The Department of Education also issued a separate warning about the executive order that prevents biological males from participating in sports, which could lead to a cut of funding. Newsom agreed on his podcast that transgender athletes participating in woman's sports is "deeply unfair" but has not as of yet changed any policies. 

My Comment:

How you react to this story is probably dependent on what actually is the source of homosexuality and transgenderism. The old "nature vs nurture" debate. If you are on the side of "nature" you think that those things are caused by genetics or some other natural cause and in that case you might think that the California law is just. On the other hand, if you think that this behavior is due to "nurture", or more specifically culture, you would probably think that the law is terrible. 

I am not really sure. I'm pretty confident that Transgenderism is a meme, not in an offensive sense, but under the original version of the term, as coined by Richard Dawkins. I generally think most of the non-LGB portion of the LGBTQ spectrum are the result of memes, cultural transmission of ideas. I'm more convinced that the LGB portion of the spectrum is something you are born with, but I am not 100% convinced. But I would be shocked if transgenderism is not some kind of culturally transmitted fad, at least to some degree. 

It's a good example of the fundamental disagreement with transgender ideology. They claim that there is no such thing as grooming someone into being transgender, it's something you are born with, but that is the fear that justifies this intervention from the Trump Administration. If the skeptics are right then hiding gender identity from parents prevents them from trying to correct the behavior and causing them to revert to their "natural" state. Transgender folks see this as "genocide" (really).

They would also argue that this could result in abuse if children are outed, either as homosexual or transgender. I guess this is possible but that's not a reason to not do it. I am absolutely not supportive of anyone that abuses kids for any reason, but the fact remains that parental rights should always outweigh hypothetical scenarios. If they do abuse their kids then sure, arrest and punish them, but you don't punish everyone because the potential actions of a few. 

I do think that this is a battle that Gavin Newsom is likely to lose. He's already wavering on "trans rights" as we saw with his statements earlier in the month about transgender athletes. I think he realizes, unlike much of the Democratic base, that this issue is deeply unpopular and the only real support comes from the transgender community itself and a few true believer allies. It's been described as an 80/20 issue, but I am guessing support might be even lower, even in a very liberal state like California. 

The real question is if Newsom is going to cut these people loose and wave the white flag. Not doing so could absolutely torpedo his presidential ambitions. It could even result in Republicans taking the governorship of California once Newsom is gone. My read on him is that he is a savvy, if cynical, political operator and he's likely to jettison this issue as fast as he can...  

Palestinians in Gaza have protested against Hamas and the war against Israel for two days.

 

Palestinians in Northern Gaza protest against Hamas. NPR/AFP/Getty.

Palestinians in Gaza have protested against Hamas and the war against Israel for the past two days. NPR. The protests have been in the northern city of Beit Lahia and is the first major protest against Hamas since the war began. The protesters are demanding an end to the war and release of Israeli hostages. The new offensive launched by Israel and the blockade they have placed on aid may have caused the protests. Hamas has not allowed open protests since they took control of Gaza 18 years ago. The last major uprising, in 2019, was put down with beatings and imprisonment. It is unclear if Israel will take advantage of the unrest or not. 

My Comment:

A rare positive sign in the Gaza conflict and it's very possible that Hamas is losing control of Gaza. Such protests were not imaginable at any other part of the war and previous protests under Hamas were put down with prejudice. 

I do have to say that I wonder how much of this is natural. Protests have to be organized and I wouldn't be surprised if a foreign intelligence agency, either the Israelis or the Americans, helped do so. It's possible that this was a grassroots protest, but I always wonder when it comes to protests. If there is one thing the CIA and the State Department are good at it's organizing protests and riots in hostile governments. 

Still, in the past I doubt they would have had any results in their efforts. I think there are at least some Palestinians that are sick of the war and know that Hamas can't win it. Though there is obviously a lot of anger for Israel as well, the fact remains that if Hamas had followed the deal they made with Israel, the war would be over now and nobody would be getting bombed and aid would be flowing in the Gaza. 

This may or may not be good for Israel. The hope is that these protesters will either cause Hamas to quit the war or even lead to Hamas being replaced by a new government that won't continue the war. That would obviously be a win for Israel and I am thinking that is the outcome they want. 

But they also have a PR problem from this as well. In the past they could argue, correctly I might add, that there wasn't really any resistance to Hamas, a terrorist organization. With these protests that isn't true anymore and it does raise questions about the morality of their heavy handed strikes. I don't really think this would change anyone's minds on the war, people are too entrenched for that, but it is worth mentioning. 

Either way, I see this as a positive sign that peace talks might resume and that we could see an end to the war. Hamas isn't powerful enough to prevent these protests and that might be even more dangerous to them than the Israeli air strikes and ground operations. If they can't put down these protests they are at risk of losing control of Gaza. Perhaps they will finally wise up and make a serious effort at peace...  

Trump signs executive order demanding proof of citizenship for voter registration

 

Donald Trump holds up the executive order. New York Post/AFP/Getty.

President Trump has signed an executive order demanding proof of citizenship for voter registration. New York Post. The order would require both proof of citizenship and the reporting of certain details of the documents, such as the expiration date. Though it is already illegal for non-citizens to vote in federal elections, it is not verified in any way, other than a question on the registration form. This new order would ensure that voters would not be able to lie on the form. The order also instructed both DOGE and the Department of Homeland Security to look for non-citizens on the voter roles. 

Donald Trump's executive order can be found here. 

My Comment:

As needed as this executive order is, I am expecting some federal judge to issue an injunction that will be tied up in court until at least the 2026 midterms. I don't think there is much in the way of a legal argument, other than states having a wide leeway to do what they want in elections, but it's never about the argument. The process is the punishment and the federal judges are in the control of the Democrats. 

Still, it's utterly absurd that you don't have to provide proof of citizenship to register to vote. The only safeguard against illegal voting by non-citizens is a tiny checkbox that can easily be lied about. Sure, you could get punished if you get caught, but how would you be caught unless you posted your illegal voting on social media or something? 

It's the reason why most mainstream news articles about this topic are infuriating. They say non-citizens voting isn't a real problem, but how on earth would we know? Like I said, it's trivial to lie on the form and without real documents to confirm. Plus, I don't think that there has ever been an audit like the one proposed in this order. Has anyone ever checked the voter roles against the immigration database before? My guess is no and I am also guessing that they will find folks that are voting illegally. 

I also don't buy the argument that requiring these documents will disenfranchise anyone. All you need is a REAL-ID or passport and basically anyone that has a driver's license has a REAL-ID. On May 7th, everyone will need a REAL-ID to fly, but nobody is saying that is going to prevent anyone from flying. And it's absurd that we have more restrictions on flying than we do for voting. 

I do think that there is more to be done to secure elections. Showing your ID at the polls is another easy thing, and getting rid of both mail-in and electronic ballots would go a long way to prevent any kind of voter fraud. Supposedly Trump is working on national voter ID but it wasn't on this order. 

The real question is if the order will survive any legal challenge. Like I said before, I think some judge will put the whole thing on hold and by the time it is decided it will be after the 2026 and maybe the 2028 elections as well. Like I said yesterday, congress needs to act to reign in the excesses of the courts and actually get these executive orders laid into the law...