Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi. AP.
Protests have continued in Iran as the regime there has cut off the internet. AP. A very large protest broke out in Tehran after Reza Pahlavi, the son of the deposed Shah of Iran and Crown Prince, made a call to oppose the Islamic regime. Protesters have called for the Shah's return, a crime in Iran punishable by death. Riots and demonstrations have left at least 42 people dead and thousands arrested. Cutting off the internet has happened in Iran in the past and usually happens right before a large crackdown. It is unclear why Iran hasn't cracked down on protesters yet like they have in the past, but it could be due to threats from President Trump to support the protesters if they are attacked.
My Comment:
It seems as though the protests in Iran are gaining momentum. Having the crown prince encourage things seems to have increased the momentum even further. It would have been unthinkable a few weeks ago for people to be openly demanding a return to the Monarchy just a few weeks ago, but here we are.
Of course, I don't know if a return to Monarchy is that much better than the Islamic regime in control now. There was a reason why the Shah was overthrown in the first place, it wasn't just the fact that they were motivated by radical Islam, the Shah was a bit of a tyrant. Obviously his son is a different person, but I don't think replacing the Theocracy with a Monarchy is going to magically fix all of the country's problems.
In the past the Iranian regime has been very efficient in putting down these kinds of protests and riots and the article is right that cutting off the internet is the first thing they would do. Supposedly they are going to use drones to identify the people who are marching, but at this point it would be difficult for them to identify everyone in these marches, which are happening across the country.
The real question is why they haven't done so by far, and I think the obvious explanation is President Trump. Iran has no choice but to take Trump's threats seriously. Though his critics would never admit it, he is a serious person and has been shown that he can and will take decisive military action. Indeed, in the last year alone he blow up Iran's nuclear program and then captured the President of Venezuela, Nicolas Maduro. When Trump says that Iran can't shoot their way out of their protester problem, he means it.
Still, I think it's more likely that they will indeed try to crackdown, regardless of Trump's threats. I do think that Iran knows that there isn't much appetite for military conflict in the United States and they have to hope that Trump is bluffing. Because they are very concerned about being overthrown.
Keep in mind that the anger in Iran isn't just because people are sick of the Islamic regime. The fact is that they lost a lot of credibility in the war against Israel that they lost. The war also had a unifying effect that is over now that the war is done, along with the war in Gaza.
But, most importantly, the economy in Iran is in a full on collapse. When inflation is 40% each month for three months, people are going to be furious. They have a major water crisis and food is even more expensive than the inflation rate. Cracking down on protests might shut people up for awhile, but I don't how they fix any of it. If this round of protests is indeed put down, it won't matter if they can't fix their economy...



