Voting update

My voter sticker

As you are certainly aware, today is election day and I just came back from voting. I always like to write up a brief post about my voting experiences and today is no different. I voted in Northeast Wisconsin and I know my vote is worth something. 

First of all, the weather is pretty terrible in my part of Wisconsin, possibly the whole state. It's rainy, dreary, windy and generally unpleasant. The only saving grace is that it's rather warm for this time of the year, 55 degrees, which is cool but tolerable. Thankfully I only had to stand out in the wind and the rain for a couple of minutes before the line moved up enough so I could go inside. 

That was shocking to me and makes me wonder if turnout is down considerably. I remember in 2016 and 2020, during the pandemic, the line was so long that not only did it go outside but it went around the block as well. This year the line was half as long and was comparable to some more recent  highly contested midterm elections. It took me about 25 minutes to vote, which was very surprising to me. 

This could also be due to the fact that so many folks in Wisconsin voted early. Supposedly 1.5 million, 41% of the electorate, voted early in my state so that might explain the shorter lines. But even if that's true it does seem like turnout was down quite a bit. 

As for the demographics, it was majority male and majority older folks. There were probably three men for every one woman and I barely saw anyone under the age of 30. And the young folks I saw were almost exclusively men. Given that my polling place serves a college, that seems pretty surprising, though who knows if that was more of a function of early voting, the time I voted, or possibly redistricting. 

I didn't see anything suspicious and the whole thing ran smoothly. I didn't really talk to anyone but I did hear someone talk to the person handling the same-day registration saying he was a refugee from California and that not only they didn't have ID's for voting, it's actually illegal to ask for ID there. Folks in line were pretty shocked by that, because we have had to show our ID in Wisconsin for years... 

Either way, I have done my part and all I can do is hope that everyone else gets out and vote and that they do it in a way that pleases me. I am still somewhat hopeful that things will go well for my "team" today but I'm going to be a wreck until the final results are announced and might be for awhile after if it doesn't go my way. There probably won't be a blog post tonight unless the election is called absurdly early and I won't guarantee one tomorrow either. I think one of my friends had the right idea, right after the election she's heading to Disney World in Florida, and now I wish I was going on vacation the rest of this week too! 

 

What I stand to gain or lose with tomorrow's election results.

 

The Trump "fight" picture. AP.

As you are certainly aware, the election is tomorrow and I thought one more post was appropriate. This one isn't going to be trying to convince anyone to vote for a candidate, or a recap of what I think will happen, I already did both in a previous post. I still think my arguments there are valid but there's no real reason to rehash them. 

So what is this post going to be about? This one is a more personal post about how I think the election will effect things. In short, I think a Kamala Harris presidency would be an absolute disaster for me and a Trump presidency would be, at worst, status quo ante but would likely lead to an improvement in my life. There are winners and losers in every situation, but in my case I think I would lose out quite badly if Harris gets into office. 

Of course, the elephant in the room is that things could go so badly that the rest of this post is completely unnecessary. Ukraine continues to worry me. The war there is not going well for NATO and the fact that we are in a de facto shooting war with Russia and it isn't the #1 election issue is beyond bizarre to me. 

And it's going to get worse before it gets better, if it gets better at all. Russia is making rapid gains and Ukraine is simply running out of troops. They have no real way to win the war and my concern with a Harris presidency is that she is going to do desperate or stupid to try and salvage the war. The only way that a "win" happens in Ukraine at this point is if we send thousands of NATO troops and that would lead to World War III.

To be fair, that's not a 100% possibility, my guess is that Harris will cut and run, but she is more of a war hawk than even Joe Biden. I just don't trust her to not screw it up. I guess it's possible that Trump could screw it up too, it's a terrible situation after all, but I think that Harris is a lot less qualified to handle the issue. 

And I have a lot of anger over the war. In 2016 I voted for Donald Trump because I was convinced that the Democrats in general and Hillary Clinton in particular, wanted a war with Russia. After the 2020 race, those fears were obviously concerned. At least Trump is actually interested in peace and will be willing to cut a deal with Russia to end the war. Harris will be under extreme pressure from the deep state to  continue the war at all costs, they have wanted the war for years. 

And if she does fail in the Ukraine-Russia war? Well it's essentially the end of all things. It would be extremely easy to screw things up so badly that the war goes nuclear and if that happens, I die. Russia would target several cities in the region and one of them is close enough to my home that I would die, but not close enough that that death would be instantaneous. Is this likely? It's not zero so it's something to be concerned about, I think it could be as high as 25% chance under Harris, and like 5% under Trump. Both are pretty unacceptable but I like my chances with Trump better than Harris.

The threat of nuclear war isn't the only reason I am worried about a Harris presidency. She's a pretty direct threat to my job as well. I work in the beef industry and the Democrats are incredibly hostile towards all meat production. Though I don't think they will go so far to ban meat entirely, it's not outside the realm of possibility that I could lose my job under Kamala Harris. At the very least she could put into place more regulation that could hurt my company.

My bigger fear is the fact that I am saving up for a house. My original plan in 2020 was to use the extra money I was earning from the pandemic hazard pay as a down payment for a house. Unfortunately, the Biden White House has done a lot to ensure that I could not afford the actual payments, despite having a pretty huge down payment. The huge amount illegal immigrants brought into the country by Biden has massively increased demand for housing and the interest rates have not helped. 

And what has Harris proposed to "solve" this problem? She's going to subsidize demand by giving foreign born first time home buyers $25,000. I wouldn't qualify for this, and most Americans wouldn't, because my parents had homes and it's only available for first generation home owners, the vast majority of whom will be foreign born. All this would do for me is subsidize demand, which would increase prices and would put housing further out of reach. To be fair, she has said that she wants to build new housing, but that won't come online for years and the subsidy would increase demand today.

Of course it's not entirely hopeless for me buying a house. If the economy collapses, I might be in a good position to buy one. But then again, I have to worry about my job. People will always need to eat but even if Harris leaves the beef industry alone, it's the meat I think people are most willing to give up if prices go up. 

To be fair, I think the economy could collapse under Trump instead, but I think that is less likely. If it happens it won't be because of Trump, but the general weakness of the economy after four years of Biden. But with Harris, I think she could be the one that screws us over deliberately with her terrible policies. 

In some ways I am better positioned to make it through an economic collapse, I have a lot of liquid capital due to saving up for a house. But if the scenario is hyperinflation, that won't help me. I really fear that with Harris we will have a collapse just because she supports left wing economics. 

Finally, I am genuinely worried that the kind of tyranny we have seen under Biden will continue under Harris. I fully expect her to go after Trump supporters and for her to censor social media, to the point where I won't even be able to post links to my blog on social media.  

And given the Biden's moves to prosecute and persecute Trump supporters I have zero reason to believe that I wouldn't be caught up in some kind of crackdown. My guess is my reach is small enough that I wouldn't be the first person rounded up, but I am sure I am on a few lists. But I have no interest in dying in prison on false charges. 

I also think that the possibility of civil war is a lot higher under Harris. The most obvious reason would be that she steals the election. My gut says that's not possible with the early GOP numbers we are seeing but it's not impossible. But that's hardly the only way it happens. Like I said, I expect Harris to continue to be tyrannical and at some point people won't put up with it... I would, of course, be affected by the war and might even get caught up in the fighting.

Of course all of this is the worst case scenario. What's the best case scenario under Harris? The economy could limp along and not collapse. The Ukraine War could continue but not escalate into nuclear war. And my job could be fine. But I don't see how Harris would improve my life in any way and in every scenario she does nothing about illegal immigration, which is a major hurdle for me not getting a house. 

Under Trump, that's probably the worst case scenario, other than the small chance of fallout from Biden ruining the economy or the Ukraine war going horribly. In most cases though I think the economy gets better, illegal immigrants get deported and we get a chance of having peace again. Almost every outcome is better for me under Trump, so that's of course why I am voting for him. 

2024 fishing year in review

 

Smallmouth Bass I caught this year.

Since I am sick to death of writing about the election, I figured it was time to write about something different. Since we had Daylight Savings Time screwing up the time, I will no longer be able to fish this year for the most part. Generally I stop fishing once it's too dark during the evenings to go, though, like last year, there is a chance I will go fishing once or twice when I go on vacation in December. 

So how did this year go for fishing? Well, it depends on what part of the year you were talking about. In the Spring and early Summer I was on fire. I caught all kinds of fish, including a couple of new species, a 10 pound plus catfish, a huge sheephead (freshwater drum) along with an above average number of both largemouth and smallmouth bass. 

After that? I essentially had nothing, other than a 2nd 10 pound catfish. Later Summer and Fall were rough, even though I was fishing almost every weekend. No matter where I would go I would either catch a few small fish or end up getting nothing at all. Even when I took my vacation in September, I didn't catch much at all, even though I was fishing almost every day. 

So what was the problem? I think it was both the weather and where I went to fish. I only tried one new spot this year and though I didn't catch much impressive there, my Dad caught a 45 inch lake sturgeon. It was a great place to fish, but I never went back. Instead I focused on the  places that were close to home or otherwise convenient, even when they weren't producing. 

As for the weather it was a hot and dry summer and fall. We are having a nice rain today but we simply didn't get much rain and that meant water levels were low. And it was very hot to the point that sometimes it was just too hot to fish. In theory low water levels should make things easier to fish, but in practice that hasn't worked out for me the last couple of years. 

The two new species come with an caveat, only one of them was fair caught. The first one was a Lake Whitefish that I absolutely snagged. I was going for Walleye and I didn't get it in the mouth, so back it went. I also caught a Quillback Carpsucker, which was a fair catch, but only because I happened to snag him in the mouth, I seriously doubt he went after my blade bait. 

The one thing I didn't catch were walleye, or the closely related sauger. They just weren't around when I was fishing and I only saw a couple of them get caught in places where folks were fishing for them. You can catch walleyes from the shore, but I just wasn't having any luck at all with them at all. 

Still, it wasn't all bad. I had one day where I caught half a dozen largemouth bass and I was fairly consistently catching decent sized smallmouth bass in the 15 inch range, which isn't terrible for Wisconsin fishing from the shore. And those two catfish were pretty amazing to catch. And as bad as I did, I noticed a lot of folks fishing near me that did a lot worse, so many folks were getting skunked around me. 

It was a frustrating year for the most part. No new personal bests, no walleyes or saugers, no real good stories to tell, at least not ones I was directly involved in (my Dad will be talking about that sturgeon the rest of his life). I am hoping next year will be a lot better.

I think what I have to do most is try some new spots. There are a ton of spots in Wisconsin to fish and I gotta be willing to go to some of these places that are more than 30 minutes away from me. I had some plans to go fishing at the big dams in Central and Western Wisconsin, but I ended up not going. If I had I might have had some better stories this year. 

Trump trolls Joe Biden, who called Trump supporters "garbage", by showing up to Green Bay Rally in a garbage truck.

 

Trump in the Trump branded garbage truck. New York Post/AP.

A day after Joe Biden called supporters of Donald Trump "garbage", Trump showed up at his rally in Green Bay Wisconsin in a Trump branded garbage truck. New York Post. Trump said "how do you like my garbage truck?" and said that the truck was in honor of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. Biden had said "the only garbage I see floating out there is his supporters". Biden was referencing a joke during Trump's MSG speech in New York where an insult comic made a joke about Puerto Rico. Biden claims he misspoke but the damage could already be done. Comparisons have been made to Hillary Clinton's ill advised "basket of deplorables" speech she gave in 2016, which may have contributed to her loss. 

BREAKING: Trump taking questions from press while driving a garbage truck!!

"How do you like my garbage truck? This truck is in honor of Kamala and Joe Biden."

HE DID IT !! HE ACTUALLY DID IT ! 😳

What a legend 🤣 pic.twitter.com/OmJJfoSvsZ

— حسن سجواني 🇦🇪 Hassan Sajwani (@HSajwanization) October 30, 2024

My Comment:

This is a major own goal from the Democrats to the point where I wonder if there wasn't some kind of revenge play by Joe Biden. The one rule in politics is that you attack your opponents but never their supporters. The reason why is obvious, you want to win some of those supporters over and you don't want to do anything that increases turnout. 

Biden's comments were probably just a flub, even Trump admits that. But the damage has already been done. That's the problem with having a senile president. He often says things that are damaging to himself or others and this is a very good example of this. 

Indeed, this could be as damaging as Hillary Clinton's "basket of deplorables" comment. Though the damage that did was probably overstated, but it certainly didn't help Hillary Clinton. Biden calling Trump's supporters garbage could turn people off of Harris, even though Biden isn't officially on the campaign.  

It's also going to get the Madison Square Garden faux controversy out of the news. Though I question the wisdom of bringing an insult comic to a political rally, the fact of the matter it was one harmless joke that the media covered for three days. I don't think the story was doing any actual damage, but it was dominating the headlines. But instead of a supposedly bad story dominating the news against Trump, we now have one that is absolutely negative dominating the news. And the media's attempts to downplay or cover up the gaffe isn't going to work. 

Because this is Trump we are talking about, he made it even more damaging for the Harris campaign. Trump showed up riding a Trump branded garbage truck and trolled the media with it. He held an impromptu press conference in the truck and then did his Green Bay rally wearing a safety vest. Not only did he twist the knife in, he did it in hilarious fashion. And he got another iconic meme image out there to go along with his mug shot, his "fight" photo after the assassination attempt and the McDonalds photo. 

I'm honestly impressed that Trump was able to pull this off. It only took him a day to scrounge up a Trump branded garbage truck. To be fair, I live near Green Bay and I have seen a few garbage trucks around here with Trump stickers, so I think they had a sympathetic company in town, but even then, it's an accomplishment to get it together this quickly. It's just another example of how much better Trump's campaign is being run in 2024 compared to 2020. Indeed, it seems like a lot of the 2016 "meme magic" is back.  

2024 state of the race and endorsement.

 

As you are almost certainly aware, the election is a week away from today. This post will function as my "state of the race", basically how I think the election will play out. I will go through the scenarios that I find most likely. 

But I also want to use this space to put out my 2024 endorsement, which should not come as a surprise to anyone who follows this blog. I am, of course, endorsing Donald Trump for the presidency. Donald Trump was a good president in 2016-2020 and his policies are just getting better. And Kamala Harris is a uniquely bad candidate, it's amazing that in three subsequent elections the Democrats have found someone even worse than they had in the last election cycle. I would absolutely vote for Joe Biden or Hillary Clinton over Kamala Harris, and it's not even close. 

What polcies of Trump do I like? He's good on the economy, which the Biden-Harris camp have damaged massively. He's not going to start any new wars and he's going to at least try to end the two wars started under Biden, Ukraine and Israel. And he's going to at least attempt to solve the massive immigration problem that got dramatically worse under Biden-Harris. Remember, in 2020, border crossings were a solved issue and the only real problem left were visa overstays and folks that made it over the border before Trump. 

But enough about who I want to win, who do I think is going to win? Again, I think it's Donald Trump. Trump has never been this high in the polls and the early voting shows that Republicans are turning out in record numbers. It's to the point where the so-called "sunbelt" swing states, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina aren't really in danger of going blue this year. Indeed, I have seen on social media reports that Harris was pulling out of North Carolina to do ad buys in Virginia, which is a very bad sign. 

This second map is the absolute best case scenario for Harris and the only way she actually wins. I don't think this is a very likely scenario, probably 10 to 15% at best. Trump has the sunbelt swing states locked up, I can't see how he would lose any of those states at this point. But Harris could win if she somehow keeps all three Midwest states. That seems unlikely that at least one of them wouldn't flip, but there's a small possibility that the early voter data and polling is somehow biased in Trump's favor in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. The larger possibility is that voter fraud somehow changes the race in these states beyond the margin that it can be made up by Republicans. If this is the scenario and Harris "wins" there will be major questions about the election, given the slight lead Trump has in these states and the major problem she has in Michigan and Pennsylvania. 

However, Harris could run the table in the Midwest and still lose. All it would take is for Trump to win one of the grey-shaded states in the above map. Of these, New Jersey, Minnesota and New Mexico are unlikely to flip, but Trump is leading in a few polls in New Hampshire and that alone would be enough for Trump to win. And Virginia is where Harris is trying to dumb campaign funds at the last minute, which isn't a good sign for her there either. With that being said, I don't see either state deciding the election and this scenario probably has about a 5% chance of happening. 

This map is the one I think is the most likely at around 50%. Trump takes one or more of the Midwest states and most likely is all three. Trump does have a lead in all three states in polling and the early voting looks good in Pennsylvania, which is the most likely state to flip, despite the various voting shenanigans we have heard about today, like people being turned away from the polls. Michigan looks good too given Harris is unpopular among Muslims and the general belief that though Trump is pro-Israel, he will at least try to end the war in Gaza while Harris will do nothing. 

The above map is the one my gut says happens. Though I only think it has a 20 to 25% chance of happening I feel like this map is the most likely. I think there is still polling bias against Donald Trump and that he is close enough to flip New Hampshire and Virginia. Like I said, Trump actually leads in the polls in New Hampshire while Virginia has done a lot to clean up their elections thanks to Governor Youngkin. And if Virginia wasn't in play, I don't see Trump visiting the state and Harris investing money there.

This is the "absurd" case scenario where Trump somehow manages to flip every single state that it's even theoretically possible for him to win. Some of those are more likely than other, after New Hampshire and Virginia, Minnesota, New Mexico, Maine and New Jersey are the most likely to flip. But for anything for New Hampshire and Virginia to flip, I think the polling error would have to be in the 4 to 6 point range, and though I think there's a small chance (5% or so) that Trump could capture one or more of these states as well. 

As for the popular vote, I think there's a better than 50% shot that Trump actually captures it. The early voting in blue states appears to be more red than it usually is and Republicans are extremely motivated. Democrats seem demoralized and split in a way I haven't seen in my lifetime. Trump could certainly lose the popular vote, after all, California has so many votes and is pretty shameless with voter fraud, but I think it's very possible that he will in fact win the popular vote. 

With all that being said, I do worry that election fraud could be a major issue. There are reports out there that there was a major fake voter registration plot that was broken up in Pennsylvania and a few other swing states. And the absolutely critical Midwest states have done the least to try and clean up voter roles and ensure a fair election, compared to the sunbelt swing states. Is this a rational worry? I don't think so, I do feel like we are at the point where election fraud would have to be absurdly obvious, to the point where even the media would have to admit it, for Harris to win with it. Like I said, Harris does have a small chance to win legitimately, I don't think it is at all likely. 

Finally, I have to say that I am watching both campaigns and their followers and it's pretty clear which side is confident and which side thinks they are going to lose. Trump and his campaign appear to be very smug and are trying to expand the map with apperences in New York, Virginia and New Mexico. Harris and her team don't seem confident at all, with Harris herself being caught on an live mic saying that they "need to make inroads with men" which is not what you want to hear at this point if you are a Democrat. 

Kamala and Gretchen Whitmer are caught on a hot mic at their very cringe drinking beer at bar scene:

"We need to move ground among men."

Then realizes they are probably getting recorded...

"Oh we have microphones in here just listening to everything ... Sh**." pic.twitter.com/UeSOAdF30a

— Charlie Kirk (@charliekirk11) October 27, 2024

To me, this feels a lot different than 2016 and 2020. I was pretty confident that Trump was going to win in both cases, but this time it seems like a lot more people agree with me on all sides of the political spectrum. Even some of the Trump haters in my life seem resigned to the idea of him winning a 2nd term. That didn't happen in 2020. It just feels different this year, doesn't it? I think Trump will win and when Tuesday next week comes I will be doing my part to make that happen.