Sunday, May 20, 2018

Reports say that ISIS has withdrawn their last fighters from the Damascus area.

A Syrian tank near some rubble. BBC/Reuters. 

A Syrian rights group says that ISIS has pulled out the last Damascus suburb they had fighters in. BBC. The rights group said that the ISIS fighters were evacuated after a cease fire. The Syrian government denies the claim. The rights group said that several buses evacuated the fighters and brought them to Badia, east of Damascus, where ISIS still has some forces. 

My Comment:
Good news from Syria as this was one of the last enclaves that ISIS still had in Syria. It was the one urban area that ISIS still controlled and now they have lost it as well. With ISIS removed and the various secular rebels mostly pushed out as well, Syria now has almost total control of Damascus. 

With Damascus now under government control, ISIS has lost almost all of their territory. They still have pockets of control in the eastern desert and near the Euphrates river. One of their affiliates still controls the tri-border area with Jordan and Israel. Other than that they have lost everything. 

As with everything in Syria there is a lot of confusion in the media as to what exactly happened. The Syrian civil rights group say that there was a deal made that evacuated these fighters. The Syrian government  denies these clams and said that they just eliminated the ISIS fighters. 

I tend to believe the rights group over the government. Why? Because making a deal with ISIS is a bad move from a public relations standpoint, but one that makes sense for the Syrians. Nobody wants these ISIS fighters to escape and everyone wants them dead. That makes me think that the Syrians are lying about a deal and one actually happened. 

So why make a deal with ISIS? What does the government gain from that? Obviously they gain Damascus. Having part of your capital under control of rebels and terrorists does a lot to de-legitimize your claim of control of the country. It also is a major victory to finally get the city under government control. 

The Syrian government can also start to focus on other targets now that ISIS has been pushed out of Damascus. They will likely shift their troops around so they can target Idlib province where the rebels and al-Nusra still control territory. They can also counter Turkish moves in the region and may even move to bring the Kurds back under their control. Getting rid of the last major ISIS threat in areas they control is a big win. 

It seems very clear that ISIS will be completely out of Syria soon. They will probably still exist as a terrorist organization but not as one that takes and holds territory, at least in Syria. And once ISIS is gone it is very likely that the Syrian regime will survive and the United States will pull out. 

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