Saturday, April 14, 2018

President Trump launches limited strikes targeting Syria's chemical weapons capabilities.

Syrian surface to air missiles and AAA fire above Damascus. Washington Post/AP.

President Trump launched over 100 missiles at three chemical weapons sites in Syria in response to the chemical attack in Douma. Washington Post. Fears of a wider conflict with Russia have proven to be unfounded as no Russian soldiers or bases were hit in the attacks. Russia has condemned the attacks and has vowed consequences but other then that tensions are easing. Further strikes have been deemed unlikely as Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis called the attack an "one time shot", unless Syria uses chemical weapons again. Syria and Russia claim that many of the missiles used in the attack, which was a combination of air and sea launched missiles, were shot down, but the US is not confirming that. The missiles targeted scientific centers and military bases in Damascus and Homs, with the UK and France participating in strikes. 

My Comment:
Well, Chicken Little, the sky isn't falling. As I suspected this strike was limited in nature and great pains were taken to ensure that it didn't erupt into a wider conflict. Far from a major disaster this was a very limited strike that, amazingly enough, didn't result in any deaths that I have seen reported. 

Though I would have probably preferred no strikes at all, as far as this goes, it was the best case scenario we could have hoped for. Syria probably lost quite a bit of equipment and research at these bases and facilities but they didn't lose any lives and their ability to make war against ISIS and other terrorist groups hasn't been diminished. Only their chemical weapons capability has been damaged, which is a good thing. 

That being said this was a major attack. We used at least two major ships, the USS Donald Cook and an unnamed cruiser to fire Tomahawks while we used at least one B1B bomber to launch additional missiles. Our French allies contributed airplanes and their frigate, Aquitaine. The UK also used their Tornado jets to launch missiles as well. Overall, more than 100 missiles were launched and it appears that they destroyed their targets. 


Syria has claimed that they shot down a large amount of these missiles. I kind of doubt that. For one thing their anti-air defenses are antiquated. They do have Russians in Syria with their more advanced weapons, but there is no indication that they engaged in this battle as their bases were not threatened and their anti-air systems did not cover the areas hit. Only the Syrians did and I seriously doubt they came anywhere near the number of missiles they claimed to shoot down. I would be surprised if they shot down any!

As for the Russians, they seem to be taking it as well as can be expected. Their major ally got embarrassed and they haven't taken any retaliatory action.  Even though the Russians basically lost nothing in this attack, they were just embarrassed on the world stage. I expect a lot more diplomatic noise to happen over this attack, but nothing substantial will occur. All the Russians lost was face.

I do have to say that I was disappointed in a small but loud number of Trump supporters that seemed to waiver during the lead up to this attack. Though I agree that I don't want any further involvement in Syria, this strike was extremely limited in scale and is hardly the work of a neo-con like Hillary Clinton. She would have done something stupid like target the Russians or try to gun for Assad himself.

Instead this was a limited strike and one that isn't likely to happen again, unless the Syrians screw up yet again. I doubt that will happen now so fears that a larger commitment to Syria will happen are unfounded. We aren't going after regime change in Syria and we are still likely to pull troops out soon. And we are certainly not going to war with Russia! I tried my best to explain this to some people, but people were more interested in panic-mongering and stupidity.

So what happens in Syria now? Status quo ante. The few remaining rebels will be pushed back, Russia will continue to support Syria and America will continue to back rebels fighting ISIS. The only difference now is that Syria is a lot less likely to use chemical weapons. Syria will still almost certainly win the war and all that is left is the clean up.

Indeed, paradoxically this strike may boost morale among the Syrian military. Being targeted by an outside force may unite various factions in Syria and cause them to fight harder. They are being fed propaganda that they shot down a lot of missiles and apparently didn't lose any troops, which is almost a miracle.

I am guessing that Trump will get one of his rare moments of positive media coverage from this attack. The mainstream media has always been in favor of military action and many of them are praising Trump for this strike, though some in the conservative media are being critical. That praise isn't likely to last long. Indeed, the narrative is already changing to criticize Trump for saying "Mission Accomplished".  But, for a few hours at least, they did have something nice to say about Trump...

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