Wednesday, April 4, 2018

President Trump agrees to keep US troops in Syria for a little longer but still pushes for an exit.

A US soldier in Syria. Reuters. 

President Trump has agreed to keep troops in Syria for a bit longer until ISIS is defeated. Reuters. Trump had been suggesting that US troops be pulled out but that plan had been resisted by his national security team. His team thought that an early pullout would allow ISIS to regroup and could allow Iran to gain a foothold. Trump again called for regional partners to step up to stop ISIS. Though Trump did not set up a timetable he made it clear that he isn't interested in a long term commitment for staying in Syria. Advisers believe Trump wants US troops out of Syria in a year or less. 

My Comment:
This is pretty much how I expected this to play out. Even though Trump may want an immediate withdrawal, doing so is probably not a great idea. ISIS is still a threat and are not under the same pressure they once were. With Turkey invading and fighting the Kurds, ISIS got a second chance. 

The invasion by Turkey has greatly slowed the war against ISIS, to the point that only the regime is conducting offensive operations against them at this point. And obviously the regime has different priorities than just defeating ISIS. It's a goal for them but not a primary one. 

That leaves an open question, who is going to finish off ISIS? The Kurds are too busy, the regime isn't on our side and the few non-Kurd rebels we have on our side aren't enough to leave the job. My guess is that is why Trump is calling on regional partners to help out. 

I think this why the Iraq story, which has flown under the radar, is a bigger deal than people realize. What Iraq story you ask? Well Iraq is saying that they may deploy troops to Syria to fight ISIS. This would be a game-changer and would solve the problem of who can fight ISIS. Given how good the Iraqi military has gotten over the years I am guessing that if this happens ISIS will be defeated quickly. 

If that happens and ISIS is finally defeated, we have little reason to say in Syria. Regime change is off the table and there really isn't any other reason to be there. Yes, al-Nusra is still there but the Syrian regime and their Russian allies are destroying them. There is, of course, Iran, but they are already there and there isn't a whole lot we can do to stop them. 

I am hoping that we will withdraw troops soon. It would be nice to finally pull out of a war after accomplishing our objectives. Syria will remain a disaster but that's not really our problem. Our goal was destroying ISIS, not bringing peace and prosperity to Syria. Once we do that we can safely pull out troops with our heads held high.  

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