As always, my New Years tradition is to make a series of predictions on the upcoming year. Near the end of that year I look back at those predictions and give myself a grade. I enjoy the accountability and seeing whether or not I'm right in the end. 2017's predictions can be found here.
These predictions are presented in a percentage format with 0% being impossible to happen and 100% being certain it will happen with 50% being a toss up. Next year I will give a grade based on how many of those predictions I got right, with half credit for answers that were partially right. For example, I said that Donald Trump had a 66% chance of being banned from Twitter. Though his account was briefly terminated, it wasn't an official action and was not permanent. Let's get started!
POLITICAL PREDICTIONS:
-Donald Trump will remain president through 2018. 95% (would be at 100% but i'm accounting for age, as sad as that would be)
-Despite that, there will continue to be efforts by disgruntled Democrats to remove him. 100%
-The left will attempt again to resurrect the sexual harassment accusations against him yet again. 95%
-Despite their best efforts, Trump's approval rating will either be higher or remain the same as the current 45% approval rating (as of last Friday from Rasmussen). 80%
-The 2018 midterms will essentially be status quo ante without any major changes in control of the House and Senate. 66%
-My senator, Tammy Baldwin, will lose re-election. 66%
-Any senate defeats will be in states controlled by the opposite parties. 75%
-Major systemic voter fraud will be discovered, either in the 2018 elections, the 2016 elections or the 2017 special elections. 40%
-There will be another major incident of violence directed at an elected official, like the Steve Scalise shooting or the Rand Paul attack. 85%
-Violence will be directed towards a Republican. 75%
-Violence will be directed towards a Democrat. 55%
-Another major sitting politician or one running for office will be taken down by sexual assault/harassment allegations. 95%
-There will be a major sexual assault/harassment scandal with a woman being accused in politics. 66%
-Despite the major threat of midterm elections, Congress will fail to accomplish anything on the scale of the Tax Bill. 75%
-CCW reciprocity will pass into law. 75%
-The wall will have more preliminary work done but will not begin major construction in 2018. 66%
-The Robert Muller probe will end early in 2018 and will not result in any major indictments (ie top level advisers or campaign officials or members of Trump's family) beyond what has happened now. 80%
-There will be 2nd special counsel investigating the FBI scandal and/or the Hillary Clinton campaign. 80%
-There will be an indictment for a major member of the Barack Obama administration or the Hillary Clinton campaign. 70%
-Despite being debunked, the media and the Democrats will continue to talk about Russia throughout the year. 100%
WAR PREDICTIONS:
-There will be no major war in North Korea. 70%
-There will be some minor military action on the Korean Peninsula but no full scale war (like targeted airstrikes or a border skirmish). 55%
-Kim Jong Un will still be in power in 2018. 90%
-North Korea will have another nuclear test in 2018. 75%
-ISIS will still exits in Iraq and Syria in 2018 and will be able to conduct raids and terror attacks despite not controlling much territory. 90%
-ISIS will continue to control territory in Afghanistan, Egypt, Libya and Yemen. 70%
-The war in Syria will continue, but with major Syrian government victories. 80%
-US and Russian forces will remain in Syria through 2018. 95%
-There will be terrorist attack in the United States that will kill and injure 10+ people. 95%
-There will be a major terrorist attack in the United States that will kill and injure 100+ people. 75%
-There will be a major terrorist attack in the United States that will kill and injure more than 500 people. 40%
-ISIS or someone inspired by ISIS will be responsible for a terrorist attack in the United States. 99%
-There will be another major domestic terrorism case in the United States done for non-Islamic political reasons. 95%
-Canada will experience an ISIS/Islamic motivated attack in 2018. 75%
-There will be terrorist attack in Europe that will kill and injure 10+ people. 100%
-There will be a major terrorist attack in the Europe that will kill and injure 100+ people. 85%
-There will be a major terrorist attack in the Europe that will kill and injure more than 500 people. 55%
-Australia will experience an ISIS/Islamic motivated attack in 2018. 75%
-There will be an attack committed by ISIS that is connected to the core organization instead of being a "lone wolf" attack. 70%
-Al-Qaeda will attack a western country. 33%
-Ukraine will largely remain a low scale war with the status quo continuing. 85%
-The Mexican Drug War will continue to be violent with a number similar (ie no huge increase or decrease) to the 23,000 killed this year but will get very little coverage internationally. 95%
-The United States will not get involved in another major conflict involving deploying troops. 95%
CULTURAL PREDICTIONS:
-The #MeToo scandals will continue to rock the entertainment industry. 90%
-A major celebrity will be exposed as a rapist or child molester in 2018. 95%
-At least one woman will be accused of sexual assault, harassment or child abuse in 2018. 66%
-The NFL anthem protests will continue into 2018 with no major action to stop the kneelers. 75%
-The NFL will continue to have major attendance issues and will face poorer ratings. 75%
-The Super Bowl will be one of the lowest rated ones in the history of the game. 70%
-Targeted harassment campaigns will continue to be a huge problem in 2018 for both sides of the political spectrum. 75%
-The "adpocolypse" will continue and online outlets that cover political stories, including this blog, will continue to be hit hard. 70%
-A major news outlet will go out of business. 70%
-Black Lives Matter will continue to be politically irrelevant and will not be able to rally attention to much of anything. 80%
-Antifa will continue with more criminal behavior and riots but will not be as relevant as they were in 2017. 66%
-The Alt-Lite and Alt-Right split will continue with both sides interacting with each other less. 75%
-Race relations will continue with status quo ante. 85%
-Hollywood will have another tough year in 2018 with box office numbers down for anything that isn't Comic Books or Star Wars. 90%
-Another movie will flop due to heavy handed political messages, either in the movie or by the people that made it, like Ghostbusters in 2016 and Mother! this year. 85%
-A major celebrity will pull another Kathy Griffen style scandal and will actually be arrested for it. 75%
-A major celebrity will become so deranged about politics that they will actually commit violence. 60%
That's it for now. I am hoping that I am wrong about some of these predictions and right about others. Though my predictions are rather bleak, I do think that they are more optimistic then they have been in the past. I do feel like 2017 was a much better year than 2016 ever was and I sincerely hope that 2018 is even better! I, for one, wouldn't mind being proven wrong on my negative predictions and right on my positive ones!
No comments:
Post a Comment