Saturday, September 9, 2017

What is going on with that ISIS convoy in Syria?

Members of the ISIS convoy. Reuters. 

As you may be aware of, Syria and Lebanon made a deal with ISIS to evacuate their fighters from the border region between those two countries. In exchange for turning over dead soldiers remains and evacuating the area, the ISIS fighters were granted safe passage out of the border region. In theory they were to rejoin the main ISIS forces in Iraq. 

The United States put an end to that plan, and in dramatic fashion. We obviously didn't want these fighters to rejoin the main ISIS fighters and our new policy is to kill ISIS fighters wherever we find them. We don't allow them to escape anymore. We learned that lesson during the Obama years and we won't be making that mistake again. 

But we also couldn't just destroy the convoy either. As much noise as Donald Trump made about killing the families of terrorists during the election campaign, he seems reluctant to do it. The ISIS convoy not only had the roughly 300 fighters, it also includes their wives and children. It would be a public relations nightmare to simply destroy the convoy, so we took other measures. 

Those measures were harsh to say the least. First we destroyed the road these terrorists were going to use. Bridges were bombed and the roads were destroyed. We made sure that there was nowhere for these fighters to go. When ISIS fighters from the main force deployed to rescue the convoy we utterly destroyed them. 

Finally, we were surveying the convoy 24/7 with drones. Whenever an opportunity arose, we would rain missiles down to kill anyone who strayed from the convoy that could be identified as a combatant. In an example of ludicrous overkill we went so far as to send incredibly expensive missiles to utterly destroy single and pairs of ISIS fighters who left the convoy to take a leak. What an undignified way to go... 

The ISIS fighters were held in limbo until today. What has changed? Well, we are pulling back. Our drones have been withdrawn because of our de-conflition agreement with Russia. Syrian forces on the ground have advanced past the location that these buses are found. 

The battle of Dier Ez Zor is still raging despite the relief of the siege of the city. It's still a major battle and I am sure that Russian air power will be deployed. With that being the case, it makes very good sense for us to pull back. We have no need of some kind of incident between US and Russian forces and the fate of these 300 fighters isn't worth going to war with the Russians over.

Indeed, this is the exact situation why we put those de-conflciton agreements into place. We have no reason to fight with Russia and having them help the Syrians capture Dier Ez Zor helps everyone involved except for ISIS. This is a good example of us working well together with the Russians. 

There's only one problem. What happens to the ISIS convoy? It's clear that the Syrian government wants them gone. Will they attempt to find another pathway for these people to leave Syrian territory and rejoin ISIS? Will they demand that they surrender and lay down their arms? Or will they simply have the Russians bomb the hell out of them completely? I'd prefer the third option myself, but at this point I have no idea what the outcome could be. I just don't want those 300 ISIS fighters to rejoin the fight. They need to be either captured or killed, not set loose... 

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