Monday, September 4, 2017

Syrian military is within two miles of the besieged city of Deir ez Zor.

The city of Deir ez Zor. Reuters. 

The Syrian military is within two miles of the ISIS besieged city of Deir ez Zor. Reuters. The city has been under siege from ISIS for years and still contains 93,000 civilians and an Army garrison. ISIS is on the backfoot with it's most major cities, Mosul and Raqqa having been liberated and in the process of being liberated respectively. Deir ez Zor was a major strategic prize for ISIS when they captured parts of the city because of they city's location and the role it plays in Syria's oil industry. In anticipation of the relief column, ISIS launched an offensive to capture the rest of the city. That offensive cut of the city from the airport supplying it, but otherwise failed. Russian airstrikes and Hezbollah and other Iranian backed militias have been critical in supporting the offensive, which was launched from Palmyra and al-Refasa.

My Comment:
Another stunning defeat for ISIS. Though the battle for Deir ez Zor is far from over, it looks like the siege itself is finally going to be over soon. Considering that the siege of Deir ez Zor has been going on since 2013, to see the city finally relieved will be amazing. 

The ISIS collapse has been spectacular. The pace of failures and defeats for ISIS has increased since the fall of Mosul. After losing their capital in Iraq, ISIS has been pushed out of Tal-Afar in Iraq and is going to lose in Raqqa in Syria as well. They have no leadership left and have been completely cut off from the outside world. 

Deir ez Zor is one of the few cities that ISIS still controls and they don't even control the entire city. When the city is liberated all ISIS will have are a few smaller towns on the Euphrates river. Their main strongholds will be long gone and all they will have left are a few small towns. 

It seems as though Syria is adapting similar tactics as the Iraqis have in their fight against ISIS. They too have relied heavily on airstrikes and militias to back their main military units. Obviously, their airstrikes are mostly from the Russians, but the tactics are similar. The only main difference is that Syria has allowed ISIS fighters to escape or flee under truce, unlike the Iraqis. This will likely backfire on the Syrians as they will have to face those fighters again, but at this point it's almost irrelevant. 

When the siege at Deir ez Zor is finally broken it will be a huge victory for the Syrians and one that will have a major impact on the battlefield. Being able to supply and reinforce the city via the ground will save the Syrian government a huge amount of resources that can be shifted to other battles. And when ISIS is purged from the city, the rest of ISIS's strongholds in Syria will likely fall quickly afterwards. 

Once ISIS is pushed out of Eastern Syria, the government will be able to turn their attention to the few remaining rebels and the other Islamic extremist group in Syria, al-Nusra Front. The non al-Nusra rebel groups have been essentially destroyed and many of them have signed cease-fires. That means that after ISIS is gone only al-Nusra is likely to remain fighting. 

I think there is light at the end of the tunnel for Syria. The massive war might finally end sometime soon. If I had to put a date on it, I would say that it will probably end sometime next year. ISIS is almost gone and the rebel groups are largely destroyed as well. Once the other enemies are gone, al-Nusra will face the brunt of the Syrian military and they too will fall. 

At this point, this is the best option for Syria. Though Bashar al-Assad is a brutal dictator who has committed war crimes, he is still the only realistic option for peace in Syria. There is no real chance of a secular group of rebels taking over and even the chances of a radical Islamic group taking over, as bad as that would be. Syria will continue to be ruled by Assad and regardless of if that was the best outcome, it's the one we are going to get. 

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