Monday, April 10, 2017

A quick warning about North Korea...

No time for an in depth post, but keep an eye out on the Korean peninsula. There have been several interesting developments there lately. First of all, a carrier strike group, led by the carrier USS Carl Vinson, is heading to the seas around the Korean peninsula. Second, South Korea and China have come to an agreement for new sanctions to North Korea if they continue to conduct nuclear or missile tests. Finally, China has deployed 150,000 troops to the Korean border. 

All this adds up to rumors of war and fear of unilateral action by the United States to either destroy North Korea's nuclear capabilities or even go after Kim Jong Un himself. Social media and the various message boards are freaking out on the possibility. 

Is it possible? A few days ago I would say no way. But after the cruise missile strike in Syria, I have no idea. I still think it is very unlikely though. Trump is probably doing the whole "speak softly and carry a big stick" shtick and I doubt it goes beyond that. All these moves are most likely just hot air and posturing to prevent the North Koreans from doing another nuclear test, which they are rumored to be preparing for. 

I am guessing this is mostly just a ploy to get the North Koreans back to the negotiating table. They have been threatening people for a few years now in a vain hope for food aid and the lifting of sanctions. It hasn't worked and Trump is sending a clear message that it's time to give up the plan because it isn't going to work on him. 

The problem is what happens if North Korea doesn't go along with it? What do we do if they do test another Nuclear device? It seems pretty clear that Donald Trump isn't messing around anymore. I really don't see a full scale invasion happening, nor a targeted attack on the North Korean regime's leadership itself. I could see an attack on North Korea's nuclear facilities to destroy their nuclear weapons capability. 

I am sure that we could pull that off with a minimum of difficulty and zero initial US casualties. The problem is that North Korea would probably respond in force by attacking South Korea. Given North Korea's heavy artillery, commando capabilities, attack subs and chemical/biological weapons, this could get ugly very quick. North Korea would lose any war against America, South Korea and/or China, and lose horribly, but they could still kill quite a few people, cause massive amounts of chaos and tank the world economy. That is something I would rather not have happen... 

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