Thursday, February 9, 2017

My thoughts on Donald Trump's travel ban being overturned by the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals

President Donald Trump's official picture

 As you all know by now, the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals has affirmed the ruling of a lower court that stopped President Donald Trump's travel ban from 7 countries with Islamic terrorism. I, of course, do not approve. But I am also not a lawyer so I am not going to go into whether this was the correct ruling or not, legally speaking. I don't think it is, but that's a personal, not a professional opinion. I do, however want to go over what will happen next and what the consequences of this ruling will be.

1. The ban as it stands right now is probably dead. There is still the Supreme Court but given the ideological makeup of the court it would likely end in a 4-4 tie. Which means I doubt they would even hear it given the fact that they don't like split verdicts on important issues like this. Trump won't get his SCOTUS nominee, Neil Gorsuch, on the bench in time to do anything either due to the Democrats delaying the confirmation process. The ban as it stands now probably is DOA. At this point Trump is probably going through the motions and knows he isn't going to win.

2. There is the possibility that Trump will come up with a new plan that could avoid the legal issues in this case. From what I understand it was the effect on green card holders that caused the courts to overrule the executive order. It is possible that Trump could issue a new order that would only effect non-green card holders but at this point I am not sure. Congress could also act, but due to the large number of RINO's I don't know if it would work out.

3. The Democrats have made a massive mistake here. They have used a massive amount of political capital in ensuring this ruling and will probably alienate the majority of Americans who either support the travel ban or, people like me, who think it doesn't go far enough. The ban has been fairly popular and most of the criticism I have heard from Trump supporters on the issue has been the sloppy execution. The Democrats would have been better served by focusing on issues that are both popular and without political downsides, unlike opposing this ban.

4. Donald Trump may have lucked out though. If there is a major terrorist attack on his watch, and there will be, he can just point to this ruling. He's essentially immune to criticism at this point because he has the argument that he tried to fix the problem but a bunch of activist judges prevented him from doing so. When the next terror attack committed by a Muslim, refugee or not, the people that opposed this executive order are going to catch hell. And I am 100% certain that there will be a terror attack this year. Trump's ban might not prevent it, but either way, it helps his narrative.

5. This is the first major setback of Donald Trump's presidency. Though he hasn't lost completely and I pointed out the upside of the courts ruling, it doesn't change the fact that the Democrats were able to stop him on something. That should encourage Trump critics, but I don't think it should demoralize his supporters that much. After all, he's won on everything else...

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