Sunday, January 1, 2017

2017 predictions

It's officially 2017 so I thought I would make some predictions for the coming year. I did this last year and you can read how accurate or inaccurate I was here. I was mostly correct last year but I also had the good fortune of having a presidential election which the outcome was pretty obvious to me, even if a lot of people missed it. I was a lot less accurate at my other more general predictions, so I am guessing that my predictions this year won't be quite as accurate this time around. That's ok though since this is just for fun, even if some of what I will be speculating on isn't really that fun.

I'm going to be using the same system I did last year. I am going to give every prediction a percentage rating. Anything over 50% means I think it will happen. Anything under 50% means I think it won't happen and a 0% chance means it won't happen period. Assuming things don't go completely crazy in the next 12 months, I expect to revisit this post around this time next year to see how accurate my predictions were.

Without further ado, here's my predictions for 2017!


-Donald Trump will be inaugurated on January 20th without incident. 90%
-There will be some controversy, real or imagined, that will be pushed by the media in the wake of the inauguration. 99%
-I won't be able to watch the inauguration. 66%
-There will be some kind of terror incident or civil disruption on the inauguration. 5%
-Some other kind of disruption will happen during the inauguration (IRL trolling or something similar) 5%

-Donald Trump will have some preliminary work done on the wall (not counting the border that already exists). 85%
-Trump will also push through some action on immigration before the year is out. 99%
-Trump will begin deportations, in addition to deportations that are happening now. 80%
-Trump will reverse the Obama administration rules on immigration from Muslim countries and will overhaul the refugee system. 80%
-In addition, Trump will at least temporarily block immigration from countries like Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan. 66%
-Trump will not take any action on immigration, breaking his campaign promises. 1%

-After being confirmed, Jeff Sessions will reopen the investigation into Hillary Clinton's e-mail server and the Clinton foundation. 75%
-Someone in the Clinton camp will be arrested before the year is out (Clinton family or someone high up in her campaign, like John Podesta or Huma Abedin.). 66%
-Barack Obama will pardon Hillary Clinton and/or himself before his term is up. 66%
-Wikileaks will release more information damaging to the Clintons, Barack Obama, or the Democratic Party. 75%

-Donald Trump will nominate a conservative SCOTUS nominee, who will be confirmed. 75%
-There will be major action against gun control laws. Expect 50 state concealed carry with reciprocity. 90%
-All of Obama's executive orders on gun control will be repealed. 85%

-The media will continue the hysterical coverage of Donald Trump. 66%
-There will be a brief honeymoon period between the media and Trump. 33%
-Trump will continue to bypass the traditional media and will use outlets like Twitter and more friendly right wing publications to reach the public. 95%
-Barack Obama will not go quietly into the night and will be the most politically active former president in recent memory. 90%

-Social Justice will remain the core of the left in the United States. 75%
-The culture will shift to the point where Social Justice will be a punchline. 60%
-Shaming campaigns will continue unabated but will be less effective when launched by the left and more effective when launched by the right. 75%

-Movies and TV will still continue to push SJ and diversity for the sake of diversity, but more films like Ghostbusters will fail. 95%
-A major liberal MSM outlet will go out of business. 66%
-The media will be held accountable, legally, for the lies they used during the presidential campaign. 20%

-Twitter will start banning conservatives from their platform including celebrities and politicians. 75%
-Twitter will ban Donald Trump himself. 66%
-Twitter will ban me personally, or will shadowban me again. 40%
-Facebook will have controversy as well, but will be seen as more tolerate of conservative voices then Twitter. 90%

-The MSM will stop talking about fake news after the term has been redirected against them. 90%
-The MSM will continue to lie in such a way that even the most basic of fact checking or looking at primary sources will prove them wrong. 100%
-The tone on US/Russia relations will remain hysterical even after the inauguration. 66%

-Race relations will improve in 2017. 75%
-Black Lives Matter will lose quite a bit of influence. 60%

-ISIS will still exist as a terrorist group and as a state that controls territory by the end of 2017. 90%
-ISIS will lose Mosul in Iraq before the end of the year. 85%
-ISIS will not lose Mosul until Fall or Winter of this year. 75%
-ISIS will still hold some small territory in Iraq by the end of the year. 85%
-The Mosul Dam will collapse and render all the rest of these predictions moot and will end the lives of hundreds of thousands of people. 25%

-The Syrian cease fire put into place in December will hold and peace talks will be successful in ending the war between the non-Jihadist rebels and Syrian regime. 60%
-Al-Nusra and ISIS will continue fighting regardless. 99%
-ISIS will still hold Raqqa by the end of the year. 75%
-ISIS will lose even more territory in 2017 then they did in 2016. 70%

-US/Russian relations will immediately recover after Trump's inauguration. 99%
-The US and Russia will begin joint military operations in Syria. 75%
-No actual evidence of Russia hacking the election or being responsible for the John Podesta and DNC leaks will ever be found. 95%
-Russia will make no new moves in Eastern Europe and it will be status quo ante in Ukraine. 90%

-ISIS will continue to conduct major terror attacks throughout the world. 100%
-There will be another major terror attack in Europe that kills at least 10+ people (The Istanbul attack on New Years Eve will be tossed out for this and the following predictions since it's only technically Europe and it happened before this post). 99%
-There will be another major terror attack in Europe that kills and wounds more then 100 people. 90%
-There will be a terror attack in Europe that will kill and wound more then 1000 people. 40%

-There will be a major terror attack in the United States that kills 10+ people. 90%
-There will be a major terror attack in the US that kills and wounds more then 100 people. 66%
-There will be a terror attack in the US that kills and wounds more then 1000 people. 20%
-Canada will experience a terror attack. 66%

-Lone wolf attacks by those inspired by ISIS will continue frequently in 2017. 95%
-Ramadan will be a bloody mess again this year with at least one major terror attack and several lone wolf attacks inspired by ISIS. 90%
-Al-Qaeda will continue to be largely irrelevant and will not pull off a major terror attack in Europe or the United States.  75%
-ISIS will attempt an assassination of a major political or religious figure in Europe or North America.75%
-There will be at least one non-Jihadist related terror attack in the United States in 2017. 90%

-Right wing populism will continue to grow in Europe and will result in more elections for right wingers there. 80%

-Relations with China will continue to cool. 75%
-North Korea will test another nuclear weapon. 85%
-NATO will continue to exist and member states will start to contribute more. 66%

That's all for now. Though I think I will be accurate I really do hope that I am wrong about all the negative stuff I posted here. I can't imagine the terrorism problem just being solved, but we can always hope right? As for the more positive stuff, I don't think I am being overly optimistic. I think that Trump will keep many of his campaign promises and that we will be better off for it. I guess we will find out in a year.

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