Tuesday, December 6, 2016

It begins... Joe Biden says he might run for president in 2020.

Vice President Joe Biden. AP. 

Vice President Joe Biden had told reporters that he is considering a run for president in 2020. USA Today. Biden is quoted as saying "Yeah, I am. I am going to run, in 2020,". When asked if he was serious, Biden replied: “I’m just, I’m not committing not to run. I’m not committing to anything". Biden had considered running in 2016 against Hillary Clinton but the death of his son and his subsequent mourning of him delayed a descion. When he finally made an announcement, he said it was too late to mount an effective challenge to Hillary Clinton. If he were to be elected in 2020, he would be the oldest person by far to be elected to the presidency since he will be 78 by the time he would take office. Biden is being floated as a possible candidate due to his perceived ability to connect with working class Midwestern voters, a group that Hillary Clinton hemorrhaged. 

My Comment:
Ugh. It is way too early to be talking about the next election. Donald Trump hasn't even been sworn in yet and the Democrats are already trying to replace him. I can't blame them for trying, the Democrats got trounced, not only in the presidential race but on a local, state and national level as well. The Democratic Party is as week as I have ever seen it and they need to come up with a game plan if they are going to survive as a party.

Right now much of the Democratic Party is just doubling down on what caused them to lose in the first place. They are screaming about everything that they blame for losing except for the fact that Hillary Clinton was a pretty terrible candidate. It wasn't racism, sexism, "fake news", Russian hackers, or divine intervention that led to Donald Trump wining. It was the fact that Clinton was terrible and people were sick of Democrats being in control, especially in the Midwestern Rust Belt states. 

More bright people on the left have recognized that fact and are trying to move the party in a different direction. They desperately need to appeal to those Midwestern states and I am guessing they think that Biden can do so. He has always had some appeal to those people and I think that he would have done much better then Clinton did.

Would Biden have beaten Donald Trump if he had ran instead of Clinton? I kinda doubt it. I'm a strong believer in the pendulum theory that every eight years, after the incumbent president leaves, the electorate wants to go back to the other party. When it's a president's 2nd term, they almost always win, but the 3rd term for a party is much rarer.

That being said, the election was pretty close and I think that Biden at least would have been a better candidate than Clinton. Instead of a referendum on Clinton Scandals vs Trump Scandals, it would have been a referendum on the Obama administration. Biden has been mostly scandal free which would have helped him quite a bit over Clinton. Despite the fact that I personally hated the last 8 years, even I have to admit that there are still a lot of fans of the Obama administration, which might have been enough to get Biden the win. It's a riddle for the ages and I think that Biden's buyer's remorse over not winning is what is fueling his, and the Democrats, speculation for 2020. 

Still, in order to have Biden win in 2020, he would have to overcome quite a bit, not the least of which is surviving in good health until then. The man is in his seventies now and would be almost 80 by the time of election day. If he is lucky he will still be smart and able bodied by then but he has no guarantee that he would be able to do so. 

2nd, he would have to win the primaries and I don't know which way the Democratic Party is going to go. Right now the Democrats are split into at least two factions. There are the social justice warriors/identity politics wing who are currently doubling down on the white male/Trump voter hate, which is the very group that the other side wants to appeal too. In order to be the candidate Biden would either have to fully identify with the group that wins this war or somehow manage to appeal to both. And he would have to do so against a wider field of candidates than Hillary Clinton had to deal with. Only two serious candidates ran as Democrats and one of them, Bernie Sanders, isn't a real Democrat. Biden would have other serious challengers to deal with, which is something Clinton never had to face. 

3rd, he would need a huge amount of help to even have a chance at winning the presidency. The way I see it the Democrats need to have one or more of four things happen for them to have a chance against Donald Trump in 2020. Remember the pendulum theory states that incumbents have a huge advantage during their 2nd term race. 

A. Donald Trump has to fail as a president. And not just fail by the standards of Democrats. He needs to fail so hard that even his supporters abandon him. Remember, even though both George Bush and Barack Obama had pretty terrible first terms, the American people reelected both. No matter if you are a Republican or a Democrat you probably remember thinking "how the hell can we be electing Bush and/or Obama again after their first term?" Trump would have to fail so hard that he would eclipse both of those presidents combined. I honestly don't see this happening though the Democrats and media will claim it no matter what Trump does. 

B. A viable third party candidate will have to rise from the ashes and draw enough votes away to allow a Democrat to win. Right now I struggle to think who that would be. The 3rd and 4th party candidates, Gary Johnson and Jill Stein were a joke this year, even though many people hated the GOP candidates, so I doubt any of them would work. Bernie Sanders is kind of who I was thinking but I can't imagine him stealing more Trump voters then Democrats. If this happens I have no idea who it could be at this point. This is how Bill Clinton beat George Bush though, and if it has happened before, it can happen again. It could have happened this year if the Libertarians hadn't put up Gary "What is Aleppo" Johnson as a candidate. 

C. A strong primary challenger from the Republicans either wins the primary or does enough damage to Donald Trump to allow the Democrats to win. Again, I have no idea who this could be and given the fact that most of the #nevertrump crowd has either bent their knees to him or have been essentially kicked out of the GOP, I can't see this happening. 

D. The Democrats have to put up someone so charismatic and cool that he or she can win on that factor alone. What they need is a Barack Obama 2.0 and right now I don't think they have one. Most of the major figures in the Democratic parties are old fogies like Nancy Pelosi or Hillary Clinton. They just don't have the young blood to appeal to the younger crowd anymore. 

Of these I think only the first scenario is likely enough to given Joe Biden a chance. And I don't find it likely at all. Trump may succeed or fail, but I doubt he will do so bad that he won't get a second term. He would pretty much have to live up to the media boogeyman that he has been made out to be for that to happen, and I don't even think that is humanly possible. 

Scenarios B and C are too unlikely to consider. They are, I guess, possible and if they happen then Joe Biden could exploit it, but I really doubt it. D is certainly possible but not for Joe Biden. The man is many things but he is not a cool hip young guy like Barack Obama was. He's more like the creepy uncle without a sense of personal space that you don't look forward to seeing on the holidays... 

So no, I don't think it is likely that Biden will win in 2020. I really think it is extremely unlikely that he will be the candidate and a long shot that he will run at all. The Democratic Party is in chaos right now and it is way too soon for it to play out in his favor. Time will tell, but I am going on the record right now and will say that Joe Biden will never be president... 

Why cover this story then? Well, it's motivation for me to keep this blog until then. Right now I have one post under the 2020 presidential race tag. It would look pretty stupid of me to not follow up when the election season begins. Hopefully though, that tag will remain lonely until 2019 at the earliest. I'm sick of election news!  

No comments:

Post a Comment