Wednesday, September 28, 2016

Fantasy Football update: week three massacre

I said I was going to take a break from my normal posts for a short bit and I meant it. It's time to update what is going on in fantasy football again. Why? Why the hell not? Plus, it's my blog, I do what I want! My draft recap can be found here and it shows what my team was like when I drafted.

So how is my team doing? Well, for the first two weeks I was doing pretty well. I won both games (not by huge margins) and scored quite a few points. In fact by the end of week two I was ranked #1 in the league both due to win loss record and in terms of points scored. I was feeling pretty good about things. Sure, I lost Danny Woodhead to injury and there were concerns about Alshon Jeffery and Brandon Marshall, but I was confident going into week three that I had a decent chance to win.

Fast forward to now, and I am now 2-1 and in 5th place, with the 6th and 7th place people beating me on total points scored. What the hell happened? A whole bunch of bad stuff. First, credit where credit is due. My opponent in week 3 did a pretty good job. He scored 126.6 points, mostly due to huge games from Mike Evans and Marvin Jones. If I had reached my projections I would have beaten him, but I obviously didn't. Still, 127 points is a pretty good score that will win you the game often enough in my league.

But my team? My team was TERRIBLE. I only got 83.2 points! Worst still, my bench had more points then my starting line up with 91 points, which includes two players that scored goose eggs. Both Christine Michael and Charles Sims had great games on my bench and even my backup WR's outscored my real ones!

What sent wrong? Well first of all, Philip Rivers did not come through for me. He had quite a few passing yards, but did nothing for me when it came to touchdowns. That hurt quite a bit, but it wasn't a killing blow on it's own. David Johnson was the lone brightspot, but my other starting RB, Latavius Murray had one long play for a TD and pretty much nothing else.

What really let me down were my WR's and my TE. Alshon Jeffery was the best of a bad bunch with 12 points, but man, that was not enough. And the rest of them didn't get that combined! Both Brandon Marshall and Brandin Cooks had terrible games. Cooks really surprised me too, because he had been rock solid in weeks one and two, but for whatever reason he just couldn't get open in week three.

So what could I have done differently? Well I screwed up by starting Marshall. He was coming off injury, so he was a higher risk play to begin with. It didn't seem to effect him that much but his QB, Ryan Fitzpatrick, had a terrible day, throwing six interceptions. I don't think you can predict a game that bad, but given the injury concerns I should have started Charles Sims, Chrstine Michael or even Sterling Shepard instead. Doing so wouldn't have won me the game but at least I wouldn't have been as embarrassed.

Still, it's only one week. I think my team is still very strong. Rivers will recover and David Johnson is still rock solid. I also have a very good core of RB's, right now every single one of them is the starter, with Arian "I'm always injured" Foster the main exception. I picked up Isaiah Crowell from waivers as well and though he isn't anywhere near as good as Danny Woodhead, he will be a good bye week or injury fill in. My main problem is who goes into the RB2 slot each week. None of them are bad, but it's hard to predict who is going to go off at any given time. Currently it's Simms, but that could change quickly, espeically if Doug Martin makes his way back to the Bucs.

WR's are still strong. Cooks and Marshall will bounce back and Jeffery is still pretty steady. I also think that Sterling Shepard is one of the better rookie WR's and he will be a good bye week fill in, or could even make it to my flex spot depending on the matchup. John Brown has been a bust so far, and Corey Coleman is injured, but I still think my WR's are good. Coleman will come back eventually and Brown actually showed some small signs of life last week.

As for my TE, Julius Thomas screwed me last week, but other then that, he has been ok as well. I waited too long to get a TE, and it's pretty unlikely to improve at the position. TE is an unrelible position this year so I am not to worried about an occasional bad day from mine.

With all that being said, I am still more confident that this season will be a good one for me. Losing last week hurt, but it wasn't a death blow or anything. I still have a good team and I hope that I got my one bad game out of my system. I also think that going into bye weeks, I am in a stronger position. Right now, almost everyone on my team is worth starting in most situations, and I think the other people in the league will have more problems finding people to fill in when someone is out. Assuming that I can avoid the injury bug (fingers crossed), I should have a real shot of making the playoffs. And maybe winning when I get there.

No comments:

Post a Comment