Tuesday, April 19, 2016

A quick reaction to the New York primary.

As you probably know the New York primary was today. As of this writing the election has been called for both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. That wasn't surprising, everyone thought that both candidates would cement their front runner status in states where they had the home field advantage. Tonight wasn't surprising, though I do think there is something to be learned for tonight.

-Bernie Sanders did not do well. Once again, he has proven that the only people who will vote for him are young white people. He got blown out in areas with a large minority population. Since New York has a very large population of minorities, Sanders did not do well. He actually did pretty well in upstate New York, but it wasn't enough to counter Hillary Clinton's advantage in the big cities.

-Bernie Sanders is also looking less and less likely to pull back a surprise win against Hillary Clinton. Hillary widened her lead tonight, and though I haven't seen the final delegate count yet, it is clear that Sanders recent winning streak is over.

-There were a lot of disappointment Bernie Sanders supporters on social media. I saw a couple of people very pissed on both facebook and twitter. Reddit is also having a meltdown. Just look at the Sanders for president subreddit! 

-Donald Trump did better then expected. Everyone thought he was going to win, but people thought that he might not get as many delegates as he needed. As of this writing, Trump has 84 and Kasich has 2, out of a 95 total. It is very likely that Trump will get 90+ delegates when everything is said and done. Even if he doesn't get any further delegates, which is extremely unlikely, the 84 delegates he has now is better then the pundits were predicting.

-Trump also broke the trend of losing in closed primaries. Even though many of his supporters, including two of his children, were not able to vote due to the stupid registration rules, Trump was still able to win easily. Most of that is because New York is his home state, but it is still a good sign.

-Ted Cruz is essentially done. He is extremely unlikely to gain any delegates whatsoever, and that will probably continue next week as well. Ted Cruz just does not do well in states that aren't dominated by evangelical Christians. I don't think he has been mathematically eliminated yet, but he is getting damn close to being done.

-Cruz was really hurt by his "New York Values" comment at one of the debates. The people of New York have a long memory and even though not all of them like Donald Trump, they couldn't help but to notice the out and out insult to their entire state. I think it will end up being one of the biggest blunders in the 2016 race, right up their with Marco Rubio's collapse during one of the debates and Jeb Bush's entire campaign.

-John Kasich is the only other GOP candidate to come away with any delegates, but given the fact that he was mathematically eliminated a long time ago none of it really matters.

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