Friday, December 18, 2015

ISIS is gaining a foothold in Yemen due to the civil war there. Business Insider.

A Houthi fighter in Sanaa. Reuters. 

ISIS has gained a foothold in Yemen due to the chaos of the civil war. Business Insider. Though ISIS controls little territory in the country, they have committed several terrorist attacks and executions in the country. ISIS has conducted car bombings, attacked mosques and made videos of men being executed in cruel and unusual ways, all hallmarks of the ISIS organization. ISIS is not getting much in the way of resistance either due to the nature of the civil war in the country. Neither the Houthi rebels or the government forces, with the Saudi Arabian allies have expressed much interest in fighting ISIS. The other major Jihadist group in the country, Al-Qaeda in the Arabian  Peninsula (AQAP) is also largely leaving ISIS alone to focus on attacks inside and outside of the country. ISIS's main target in the war are the Houthi rebels, who follow the Shiite branch of Islam. ISIS are radical Sunni's who consider the followers of the Shia fate to be heretics. Unlike other countries, the Yemeni branch of ISIS is mostly made up of locals due to the difficulty foreign fighters have in reaching the country. It is also unclear how closely the branch works with core ISIS. 

My Comment:
Yet another country where ISIS is taking advantage of the chaos of a civil war. Much like Iraq, Syria, Libya, Afghanistan and Egypt, ISIS is using the war to gain a foothold. None of this is particularly new news, but it really isn't getting the coverage it deserves. In fact the war in Yemen is not getting the coverage it deserves. With Syria, Iraq and to a lesser degree, Libya gathering all the headlines, very few people know what is happening in Yemen. Which gives ISIS a perfect opportunity to attack. 

It also goes to show that even if we destroy ISIS in Syria and Iraq, the problem won't go away. ISIS in Yemen is a largely independent group that gets little in the way of help from core ISIS. Even if core ISIS is destroyed it would not lose all of it's affiliates. Should the core group of ISIS be stopped, ISIS could be reborn in Yemen, or in any of the other countries where ISIS is active. Much has been said about Libya being a possible backup for ISIS should Syria and Iraq fall, but the country is far from the only option. 

It's also clear that a main focus for ISIS is attacking Shiite Muslims wherever they may be found. The Houthi rebels are Shiites, which also explains their support from Iran. Though ISIS's attacks against the Yezidis, Kurds and Christians in Iraq and Syria have gotten most of the press, ISIS has killed thousands of Shiite Muslims. Attacking them in Yemen is predictable. 

As a matter of fact, ISIS considers other Muslims groups that aren't Sunni to be the biggest targets. ISIS only really tolerates other Sunni Muslims, and only then if they follow them. Next up are Christians, who will be killed if they don't either convert or pay a tax. Jews would presumably get the same treatment, but I wouldn't hold my breath for that. On the next level are "Pagans" such as the Yezidi, which are killed or enslaved on site. The worst treatment is reserved for the Shia Muslims, who ISIS considers to be heretics.   

ISIS also has strategic reasons to attack Shiite Muslims. As they did in Iraq, they hope to inflame tensions between Shiite and Sunni Muslims. This is an old tactic that predates the current incarnation of ISIS. Back when they were al-Qaeda in Iraq, they destroyed the Golden Mosque of Samarra, twice, in infuriate the Shiite Muslims. That attack caused the Shiites to retaliate and kill many Sunni Muslims. The hope is that relations between Shiite and Sunni get so bad that Sunni Muslims will have no choice but to work with ISIS. So far their strategy is working as Sunni/Shiite relations are as bad as they have ever been. 

I haven't talked too much about the greater war in Yemen lately. Largely because there hasn't been much in the way of movement in the front lines. The Saudis and the Yemeni government have taken quite a bit of territory back from the Houthis, but they aren't anywhere close to taking back the city. Both sides are focused on fighting each other, and aren't attacking ISIS or AQAP. 

All this talk about ISIS in Yemen ignores the elephant in the room. AQAP is still the premier terrorist group in the country and, next to ISIS, they are the most dangerous terror group in the world right now. After all, they pulled off the Charlie Hebdo attacks (with a little help from ISIS), which until recently, was the worst terror attack in Europe in years. Though ISIS is now competing with them for recruits, there is no evidence that they are attacking AQAP and neither the Houthis or Yemeni government is all that focused on attacking them. Only the US government is, with a bunch of low impact drone strikes. That gives them a huge opening to plan and execute more attacks, both inside and outside of Yemen. 

Of course AQAP was active in Yemen before the war. But the war has given them a chance to expand and take territory. Before they held only a few villages, but now they control major cities. ISIS will also probably take advantage of the chaos to take land as well. Once that happens, it will be very hard to dislodge ISIS and I don't think there is anyone around that will be willing to attack them. ISIS in Yemen will be a huge problem, and one that won't go away anytime soon... 

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