Tuesday, December 22, 2015

Iraqi fighters finally make it to the city center in Ramadi. Reuters.

Iraqi fighters with a captured ISIS flag taken down at Anbar College. Reuters. 

Iraqi forces have finally entered the city center in Ramadi, in the biggest success so far in the fight against ISIS in the city. Reuters. The battle has been raging since November and progress has been very slow. Iraq initially lost the city last May, after fleeing from ISIS despite outnumbering them. Recently, Iraqi troops have been on the offensive but little ground has been regained. This is due partially to the fact that Iraq has been very reluctant to deploy Iranian backed Shiite militias in the primarily Sunni city. Progress has also been slow due the large number of civilians trapped there by ISIS. Only 250 to 300 ISIS fighters are believed to be left in Ramadi, but they left behind dozens of booby traps and bombs. Should Ramadi be liberated completely it will only be the second city, after Tikrit. ISIS still hold several cities in the area including Fallujah an Hit.  

My Comment:
It's still too soon to tell if the Iraqi forces will be able to dislodge the few fighters left in Ramadi. In theory they shouldn't have too many problems. After all, if the numbers quoted in the article are correct and ISIS only has 250-300 troops in the city, then they should be completely outnumbered and outgunned. But ISIS was able to take the city with only a few more troops then that, and it is always easier to defend then to attack. And Iraqi troops have managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory on more then one occasion in the past... 

ISIS is making sure that the Iraqis pay a heavy price for taking back the city. I have mentioned many times before that ISIS loves to leave bombs, snipers and booby traps behind whenever they are pushed out of an area. They are doing the same thing in Ramadi, so even if they lose the city, they will kill Iraqi troops and civilians. They are also using suicide bombers defensively, which is not a phrase you will hear very often. But it is true, and it shouldn't be too surprising that they are using the tactic. After all suicide bombings are easy to pull off, hard to defend against and are devastating for troop morale, just like all the bombs and booby traps are as well. Though ISIS primarily uses suicide bombing as an offensive weapon, or just a general terror tactic, they can be used to great effect when they are on the back foot. 

ISIS's tactics are unconventional and I am guessing most of the "fighting" in Ramadi is dealing with these kinds of bombs and traps instead of actual gunfights. While on the defensive, ISIS is more focused on doing as much damage as possible, so my guess is that they are doing their best to avoid getting into close range gunfights with Iraqi forces. Better to avoid a fight and plant more bombs then to get into a fight and lose. That isn't to say that gunfights aren't occurring, but the primary way ISIS is hitting their enemy is with these bombings and traps. On the other side of it, I am guessing the Iraqis are more focused on the gunfights but if past performance is any hint, they are still very reliant on US air support. 

None of this is really new, but the fact that Iraq is avoiding using the Iranian based militias in Ramadi is new. These militias have a history of treating Sunni Muslims as garbage and have committed many atrocities against them. When Tikrit was liberated from ISIS, many innocent and not-so-innocent Sunni Muslims were executed by the Shiite Muslims that make up the militias. There were also reports of widespread looting and burning of Sunni houses and businesses as well as many other human rights abuses. None of that is unexpected, given how brutal ISIS treats everyone, it's not surprising that people would take revenge, even if it is on people that probably don't deserve it. There would be payback even if relations between Sunnis and Shiites were better then they are now. 

That being said, I am not sure the Iraqi military itself will avoid taking a little revenge on any ISIS fighters they capture. Though they are much less likely to punish innocent civilians then the militias are, I doubt any captured ISIS fighters will live for very long. Sure, some will be captured for intelligence purposes and interrogated, but I am guessing most of them won't ever make it to that point. That's the problem with not following the rules of war. Once you abandon them completely, your enemy has no reason to abide by them either. When no quarter is offered, you won't get any in return. 

Which makes me wonder if there isn't a more practical concern for ISIS causing all of these atrocities. It is common knowledge that ISIS treats people terribly once they have been captured. From the Camp Speicher massacre, to the horrific video taped murders of dozens of Syrian and Iraqi captives, ISIS has proven time and again that they will kill people they take alive, often in horrible and creative ways. ISIS must know that doing so it's important to question what ISIS gets out of these attacks on a strategic level. 

I think that ISIS actually wants reprisals for these attacks. For one it makes it harder for their troops to give up. Who is going to forgive a fighter that has participated in mass murder? Especially if the capturing force has lost people to the attacks. For an ISIS fighter, it is probably better to keep fighting for some kind of life then to surrender or try to escape. The best case scenario is living on the run for the rest of your life and probably ending up in prison. The worst case is that you get killed in a similar way that ISIS has killed others. Many ISIS fighters may want to give up, but these massacres make it much more difficult to do so. 

ISIS also gets another benefit from reprisal attacks from Shiite militias. If the militias, or even the Iraqi Army, does commit atrocities on civilians in Ramadi, ISIS can use the attack as a recruitment tool and as a way to pacify the people they have under their control. ISIS can claim to be the defender of Sunni Islam if it looks like Shiite or even the secular forces in the area are out to get them. More then anything else, ISIS needs dedicated fighters and the support of the people that live in the areas they control. Shiite atrocities would go a long way in accomplishing that goal.  

Which means that Iraqi is actually fighting the battle the way that they should, even if progress is painfully slow. Using the Shiite militias may end the battle quicker, but it would play right into ISIS's hands. So would being super aggressive with the Iraqi military, which would result in high civilian casualties. Though the current tactics are slow, they are probably the best of bad options... 

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