Monday, November 30, 2015

Fighting has erupted between al-Qaeda and the Kurds in Syria. AFP

Kurdish fighters in Syria. Public Domain/VOA

Fighting has erupted between al-Qaeda affiliate al-Nusra and the Kurds and their US backed rebel allies in Syria. AFP. 8 Kurdish troops were killed in the battle while 15 al-Nusra troops died as well. The battle occurred in northern Aleppo province near Azaz after the Syrians attacked several outposts of the Jaish al-Thuwwar Arab rebel group who are allies of the Kurds. The Syrian Kurds have always had tense relations with the Syrian rebel groups. The Kurds often accuse the groups as being allied to Turkey. The Kurds have also never joined the rebels war against Bashar al-Assad, despite being seen as an oppressed minority. The fact that Assad withdrew most of his forces from Kurdish territory and allows the region to function autonomously is probably a large reason for that. Instead, the Kurds have focused on fighting ISIS and have had some success taking back villages in the Hasakah area. Recently the Kurds have allied with some Syrian rebel groups, both Islamic and Christian, in their fight against ISIS. 

My Comment:
It's not often that al-Nusra gets any coverage in the news media these days. After all, ISIS is grabbing headlines is is the larger and more effective terrorist group. But I think ignoring al-Nusra is a major mistake. They are al-Qadea after all, and are a dangerous and threatening terrorist group. More concerning is the fact that they have control of a large portion of Syria. They have also co-opted the vast majority of rebel groups in the area. There are very few rebel groups left in Syria that haven't been corrupted by Islamic extremism. 

The big difference between ISIS and al-Nusra is that al-Nusra has not yet attacked anyone outside of Syria. They are terrorists but for now their goals are local. That could change very quickly if they become more powerful. And there is always a threat as they grow, the hardliners could split from the group and create another group like ISIS. You have to remember that modern ISIS was formed after they split from al-Nusra Front, so it's not like it can't happen again. Like ISIS their goal is to destroy anyone who doesn't follow their extremist form of Sunni Islam. 

Unlike ISIS, al-Nusra is able to make allies with other groups. What makes al-Nusra so dangerous is the fact that they can work with other rebel groups to accomplish common goals. ISIS has never allied with any group. It either takes over or exterminates any groups it comes across. Al-Nusra is different. They are able to co-opt other groups to make them fight for their goals. Both the so called "secular" rebels and al-Nusra know that they are more powerful together then they are alone. They formed the so called "Army of Conquest" as an alliance and the combined forces have proven a major threat to the forces of the Syrian regime.

Al-Nusra has also done a very good job at destroying, co-opting or neutering any rebel groups that are getting supplies or support from the United States. In the past they have utterly destroyed a couple of CIA trained and supplied groups. They also captured quite a few US weapons, including TOW missiles, from these groups after they were destroyed. Other groups, including the rebels trained by Obama's mission in Turkey, were forced to hand over their weapons by al-Nusra. I wonder if the reason they are attacking the Kurds now is because they are getting more in the way of US support. 

This isn't a good development for the Kurds either. For the most part al-Nusra has left them alone. Probably because the Kurds were fighting al-Nusra's enemy, ISIS. But for whatever reason, that has changed. My guess is that it is because of Turkey. Turkey hates the fact that the Kurds even exist, let alone the fact that they are creating a de-facto independent nation right on their border. Turkey is allied with many of the various rebel groups in Syria and I wouldn't be too surprised if  al-Nusra is one of them. My guess is that they told al-Nusra that if they attacked the Kurds they would get more support. 

That's the last thing the Kurds need. They have had some success against ISIS but the fact of the matter is that they are still not in a great position. With ISIS still a major threat, they are now having to deal with another Islamic extremist group attacking them at their flanks. Though there is a chance that this was an isolated incident, it's possible that al-Nusra could switch focus and attack the Kurds. I think they would be able to withstand that, but it would really hurt any offensive operations against ISIS. Since the Kurds have about the only army in the world with boots on the ground fighting against ISIS, that means a lot of the pressure on ISIS would evaporate, which is bad news for everyone who isn't a Jihadist.

Finally, I didn't talk much about the rest of the article. According to the story, the UAE is talking about sending troops on the ground to fight the Jihadists. That seems unlikely. For one, they are not all that friendly with the regime of Bashar al-Assad. Indeed, they are enemies, so I can't imagine that the Syrians would let them deploy that many troops, even if they aren't directed at them. Secondly, the UAE has a huge number of their troops stationed in Yemen participating in the fighting there. That's a major reason the UAE hasn't been sending airstrikes to Iraq or Syria lately. Their forces are committed elsewhere, so I'll believe this report is genuine when troops are actually on the ground in Syria. Stranger things have happened though... 

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