Sunday, November 1, 2015

Despite Russian airstrikes, ISIS has taken control of a town from the Syrian regime. Reuters.

Civilians in Homs old district. Reuters. 

ISIS has taken control of the town of Maheem in Homs province, despite Russia's air campaign against them. Reuters. Using their tired and true tactic of car bombs followed by a ground assault, ISIS killed 50 defending troops. With Maheem under control ISIS is now threatening the Christian city of Sadad. They are also within 13 miles of the main highway connecting the capital of Damascus with the northern half of the country. In addition, ISIS has captured several weapons caches in the area. The attack was successful even though Russia has joined the war and has begun a withering air campaign against the enemies of the regime. ISIS is under heavy pressure in the north were a new offensive has begun to retake the city of Hasaka. ISIS often goes on the offensive after they are pressured with attacks or lose territory. 

My Comment:
Looks like the Russian's air campaign isn't going quite as well as they thought it would. To be fair, that's what happens when you are trying to fight three wars at once. They are trying to destroy the rebels, along with al-Nusra and ISIS. That's too many fires to put out at once, so it's not surprising that they lost this town. There is only so many targets they can hit at once and apparently Maheem was not a priority. Indeed, the vast majority of Russian airstrikes have been targeted against the rebels and al-Nusra in the northwest corner of the country, in support of the Syrian regime's offensive in that area.  

And there are limits to air power. ISIS's offensive tactics are very hard to counter with air power. Like I have said before ISIS likes to use suicide car bombs to blow a hole into enemy defenses, then they pour infantry into the chaos that is created by such an attack.. This is an extremely effective tactic that is very hard to counter. It also makes it pretty much impossible to use air power in a battle where the tactic is used. After all, it's not like they can just send in airstrikes to hit car bombs before they hit. There just isn't a way to tell friend from foe until they start charging the front lines and blowing themselves up At that point the situation on the ground is way to confused to try and use airstrikes. With the ISIS fighters in close range combat with the Syrian soldiers it is way to hard to find targets, even with low flying jets and helicopters. When it comes down to it, the guys on the ground, and whatever armor they have with them, have to be responsible for holding the line. In this case they failed. Airstrikes alone won't fix that. They may help morale and can effectively destroy rear areas, bases and weapon depots but aren't much use in blunting a close range lightning attack. 

As for the strategic situation, it seems like ISIS is resuming their offensive to cut off the highway between Damascus and Homs. Doing so would cut the country in half... again. Losing control of that highway would be a huge blow to the Syrian regime and would essentially cut off Damascus, which is already under heavy pressure from the Southern Front rebels, the one group of rebels in the entire country that aren't allied with Islamic militants. And ISIS is active near the capital as well. It's really possible that the regime could lose control of the capital if the highway is cut. That won't be a killing blow for the regime, given that they have Russian and Iranian support, but it would be damn close. Such a defeat is a long time away, and I am betting that the regime will have to reinforce the troops defending the highway. And there is no guarantee that ISIS will ever reach the highway. 

Indeed, ISIS seems to be in a poor position lately. There is a new offensive against them in Hasaka that may push them out of the region. And ISIS has had quite a few setbacks in Iraq as well. And even though they have advanced in the central part of Syria, they haven't had a victory anywhere else in quite some time. I think the article is right, they are just hitting the regime where they are weak because they don't have the strength to take any of their other targets. Hasaka still stands. So does Deir Ez Zor. They have yet to make it to Aleppo, even though the entire area is in chaos. And the regime is pushing ISIS back near Palmyra, and may even retake the city. 

Still, it's way to early to count ISIS out. Remember, ISIS is a phoenix that rose from the ashes of al-Qaeda in Iraq. They have already rose from the grave once before, so even if we were to beat them, they may always come back. And ISIS is nowhere near being defeated. They still control major cities in both Iraq, Syria and Libya, and are active in Egypt, Afghanistan, Yemen and Nigeria. And they are getting thousands of recruits from throughout the world. And most importantly, this attack proves that their tactics still work. They are experts at detecting weakness and hitting hard when it is found... 


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