Wednesday, November 25, 2015

2nd Russian pilot shot down by Turkey rescued in a daring behind the lines raid. New York Times.

A graphic showing the Russian and Turkish claimed flight paths of the SU-24 that was downed. New York Times. 

In a joint operation with Syria, Russia has rescued the navigator of the SU-24 that was destroyed in a border dispute with Turkey. New York Times. Earlier reports had both pilots of the plane killed by Syrian rebels on the ground who shot them after they had bailed out, but only one of the men was killed this way. The other man, who served as a navigator, was either captured by the rebels or had somehow been able to evade them. The Russians, along with their Syrian allies, deployed special forces behind enemy lines to retrieve the airman. The names of the pilots, as well as a Russian Marine who was killed during the initial rescue attempt have been released. The pilot Lt. Col. Oleg Peshko will be posthumously awarded with Russia's highest honor, the Hero of Russia award. The other two men, marine Aleksander Pozynich and pilot Captain Konstaintin Murakhtin will also be awarded medals. 

In response to the incident Russia is deploying sophisticated S-400 surface to air missiles to counter any further threat to their forces. Turkish President Erdogan waffled after the incident claiming that he did not want to escalate the incident. However he also claimed that the attack was justified and that it would not change its policies in the wake of the attack. He vowed to protect the border and may repeat his actions if the situation arises again.  

My Comment:
As far as I am concerned this is very  good news. What Turkey did to that plane was bad enough but what the rebels did on the ground was even worse. It's a war crime to try and kill people that have bailed out of a plane. Paratroopers are one thing but once you bail out, you are a non-combatant and shooting at a helpless pilot is an evil act. I am pleased to learn that at least one of these men survived this attack. 

There haven't been a lot of details released about the raid that rescued the Captain Murakhtin. I don't know if he was captured by the rebels or if he had escaped them somehow. I am sure Russian pilots are trained in escape and evasion just like US ones are, so it's possible he was able to evade them. But if he was captured then this mission is even more impressive. The fact that the Russians were, on short notice and, admittedly, with some local help from the Syrians, were able to launch this mission and have it succeed behind enemy lines speaks to their prowess. It's abundantly clear that the Russians are pretty good at warfare. It's a mistake to underestimate them. And I think the Turks just made that mistake. 

This whole event seems like something out of a movie. Indeed, if Russia wants a propaganda coup, they should make one about this attack. It's a great story and would show the Russian people just how capable their military is. And it would give them a chance to portray the Turks and their rebel allies in a negative light. People have used film as propaganda before and I don't see why it can't happen again. Mostly, I just want to see what the Russians could come up with, since I do like foreign films. 

On a more serious note, the situation between Turkey and Russia is still very bad. Turkey's actions directly lead to the death of two Russian servicemen. They didn't kill these men directly, but they might as well have. Though you can't blame the Turks for the actions of the rebels, what they did was evil and the fact that the Turks and Americans work with these men does not reflect well on anyone involved. There is going to be hell to pay and I am guessing Vladimir Putin is thinking long and hard about what the consequences are going to be. 

One of those consequences is the deployment of the S-400 missiles. Those missiles are very effective and will essentially create a no-fly zone over Syria. Russia also has ships in the area that will also serve that function, including the flagship Moskva. In short, only airplanes that Russia approves will be allowed to fly. 

And there is very little anyone can do to stop them. Once those missile batteries are up and running, it will be next to impossible to evade them. These are incredibly advanced missiles and will greatly limit what the Turks can do in this area. To be sure, if Turkey tries to pull the same stunt they just did, there is a decent chance one or more of their fighters are going to be destroyed as well. The Turks could try to destroy these weapons before they are deployed but doing so would be suicide, even if they could pull it off. Given the presence of the Moskova and SU-30 fighter jets, any attack would be likely to fail or be a Pyrrhic victory at best. And the whole situation could degrade into full scale war. This is a trump card for Russia and I don't see how anyone can work in Syria now without their approval. 

But I doubt Turkey will try and push this incident any further. I don't think they are getting the support they expected. The Arab countries are largely silent and even their NATO allies were essentially saying "yeah we are allies, but this is your deal, so deal with it". Even America admitted that the plane was shot down in Syrian airspace, even though they concluded that airspace was violated. It's clear that nobody is going to risk a war with Russia over Turkey. Especially when the Turks are the ones that started this mess. 

And once again, in no uncertain terms, I condemn this attack. The Turks are way out of line here. There was no reason to destroy this SU-24. You can't possibly argue that this jet was a direct threat to Turkey. And it was outside of Turkey when it was destroyed. Sure, Russia was trying to get a rise out of them by getting close or passing their border. But Russia does that all the time. When the rest of the civilized world has that happen they send their own jets up to meet them, the pilots wave at each other, and nobody gets killed. You don't shoot them down. At most you light them up with your radar. But you don't try and kill them. 

As I said in the last post I think this was a deliberate attack. Turkey was mad as hell that Russia was propping up Assad and attacking their Syrian rebel friends. They were also worried about the nascent Russia/France alliance against ISIS. Though Turkey is officially against ISIS, the fact of the matter is they do have a lot to gain by keeping them around, First of all, they get oil on the cheap, which was a major benefit before the Russians and Americans blew everything up. Still, ISIS serves as a counter to Turkey's opponents such as Assad, the Iranian government, and critically, the Kurds. More then anything Turkey is afraid of an independent Kurdistan. Helping Russia, France and America defeat ISIS would go a long way to making that happen, so Turkey wants nothing to do with a war against ISIS. 

Given their actions I think America and the rest of NATO needs to think long an hard about kicking Turkey out of the alliance. They can still be a junior partner, like Australia and Jordan are, but being a full partner should be out of the question. And should Russia take revenge on Turkey for what they have done, I say let them. Our alliance is a defensive one, and it should not cover aggressive actions by Turkey. Hopefully, something will change soon... 

1 comment:

  1. I have to add that this kind of scenario can result in an escalation into all out war. It seems Putin is smart enough, so far, not to retaliate with any direct attacks on Turkey. If he keeps his present course, he will gain respect in the international arena.

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