Syrian map of control. Washington Post/Institute for the Study of War.
President Obama announced today that there will be special forces deployment to Syria for the first time since the war began. Washington Post. The new deployment marks a huge shift in Obama's anti-ISIS campaign. The troops will be stationed in northern Syria and their focus will be on training troops. They are not expected to engage in direct combat but will assist the Kurds in the area that are advancing to the city of Raqqa, which is the de-facto capital of the Islamic State. The deployment appears to be an open ended commitment with no timetable for withdrawal. In addition to the special operations deployment, the Air Force is deploying A-10 Warthogs and F-15 Eagles to the theater as well. It is unclear what such a small force will accomplish since only 50 troops are being deployed. There are also fears that the deployment represents mission creep which could eventually lead to larger deployments.
My Comment:
My guess is that this deployment is going to consist of a Green Beret soldiers. They are experienced trainers and have been training troops since the Vietnam War. Though 50 of them is not really all that useful in a major battle, they can train hundreds of fighters. They are classic "force multipliers" and their real value is the morale and effectiveness boost they give to the troops they train. The Kurds are a fairly strong fighting force as it is, but with the Green Berets there to train and equip them they may have a larger impact on the battlefield.
Is it going to turn the tide against ISIS? No. Not likely. The Kurds are an effective fighting force but they have been unwilling so far to expand outside of their own lands. Yes they advanced towards Raqqa but I think the chances of them actually trying to take the city are pretty much zero. They hate ISIS but they have no reason to attack them there. Still, arming and training the Kurds, who are about the only group in Syria that are both secular and not total jerks like the regime, is the best idea I have heard from the Obama administration so far. It's still a half measure but unlike other attempts I think they might accomplish something. It won't defeat ISIS but it may allow the Kurds to further roll back ISIS.
One wonders how Turkey will take this. They hate the Kurds more then they hate anyone else and they view an independent Kurdish homeland as an existential threat. The Kurds have been bombed by Turkey before and some of the groups fighting against ISIS in Syria are communist terrorists that have been blamed for the civil unrest that is ravaging Turkey right now. It's possible that this will hurt our relations with Turkey, but at this point I don't care. They can get mad as far as I am concerned.
I think the throwaway line about the United States deploying more jets to the region is probably just as significant as the special forces deployment. The A-10's and F-15's are primarily ground attack aircraft (though the F-15's have an obvious air-to air role as well). They are both extremely effective against ground targets and any armor ISIS has will probably be under serious threat from air attacks. They will also be able to provide effective cover fire if our ground troops come under attack. I think this is a major step up in our commitment to the air war.
I also think the fears of mission creep are valid. There is a very real possibility that these new troops will come under attack and if they can't get the support they need from the local Kurds, they might be in trouble. If that happens, we may need to deploy more troops to protect them. I also think there is a very real possibility that we may end up deploying forward air controllers to direct airstrikes as well. With all our new aircraft in the area, and with so many various factions working on the ground, it's important to make sure what gets hit by airstrikes is actually the enemy. A-10's especially are effective in an air support role, and that often requires forward air controllers to avoid friendly fire incidents.
I'm also worried how Russia is going to react. Though the Russians have no quarrel with the Kurds, it is also true that the Special Forces may be training local Sunni rebels as well. The Russians have been targeting these rebel groups extensively during their air campaign. The worry is that they will also target any groups trained by the Green Berets, and may even accidentally attack or kill our troops. I don't think this will be a major issue though since at the moment the northern area of Syria is largely cut off from the regime forces. And these troops will be fighting ISIS, not the regime. Also, the major faction being trained will remain the Kurds, and I doubt that the Russians will have any problem with that since they are de-facto allied to the Syrian regime.
The Syria conflict is just completely insane right now. There are so many factions fighting right now that it is utter chaos. At the very least there are five main factions, all of which fight each other and occasionally work together. The short list is the Syrian regime, the Kurds, the "secular" rebels, al-Nusra and, of course, ISIS. In addition to those factions many other groups have deployed troops or trainers. The Russians, Iranians, Hezbollah, and now the United States have deployed troops and many, many other countries have sent weapons and supplies. In short the Syrian war is drawing in the whole world.
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