Wednesday, October 21, 2015

Joe Biden has decided not to run for president. Washington Post.

Vice President Joe Biden. Washington Post

Vice President Joe Biden has decided not to run for president. Washington Post. Biden claimed that the window for starting a campaign had closed. Joe Biden was in mourning after the death of his son, Beau, who suffered from cancer. Biden would have been a primary rival to Hillary Clinton. The two candidates have similar beliefs and qualifications and may have split the vote. With Biden not in the race, Bernie Sanders is the main competition for Hillary Clinton. Had Biden entered the race he would have been seen as a scandal free version of Hillary Clinton, who's campaign has been beset with controversy after controversy. Had Biden entered the race, most polls had him in third place, behind both Sanders and Clinton. 

My Comment:
I see this as very bad news for Democrats. Biden isn't perfect as a candidate. He's had more then a few "creepy uncle" moments with women and girls that would not have played well during the election (though Bill Clinton was way worse and it never hurt him). He also has all the baggage associated with the Obama administration, which are far to extensive to list here. His heart is also not in it due to the death of his son. All that being said Biden was probably the best candidate the Democrats could have put forth. Given all the problems I just mentioned, that's a fairly strong indictment for the rest of the field. I'm no fan of Joe Biden, but I also think he would be the best president out of anyone in the Democratic party currently being considered.  

I am still kind of glad that he announced that he isn't running, if for no other reason it makes the choices for Democrats a lot clearer. Do they want Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders? Or in other words, do they want a scandal ridden candidate or one that is so far the left that he isn't electable? I didn't see it was an easy choice but I think there is a lot more clarity in the Democratic field then there is in the Republican one. Still, I wouldn't want to be on the left right now... 

Of course without a viable 3rd candidate, the Democrats could be in trouble. Hillary Clinton's campaign could very well implode. If it isn't Benghazi, or the e-mail scandal, some other scandal could come up and sink her completely. If that happens Bernie Sanders will be the candidate, and I really don't think he is electable. He is just too far to the left for the general voters. Martin O'Malley and Lincoln Chafee have no chance whatsoever and they should drop out ASAP. 

That being said I would put money on Hillary Clinton being the candidate now. Joe Biden was the only real threat to her campaign. I don't view Bernie Sanders as a credible threat. Sure he's popular on the internet and in the few ultra-liberal places he likes to visit, but I view him the same way I used to view Ron Paul. He's a meme candidate. Young people like him because they like his policies, but when the primary day comes his supporters won't show up. And people that actually think about his candidacy understand that what he wants probably isn't possible. Ultimately, the Democrats want to win, so the people that support Hillary Clinton, or the ones that just want a Democrat as a president, will not support Sanders either. At this point it is going to be Clinton unless, like I said above, her campaign implodes due to scandal.

In some ways I think this is very good news for the Republicans. With Biden out of the race they have to face a much weaker and unlikable Hillary Clinton in the actual election. Clinton just has so many problems. She's unlikable, she's got more scandals then Richard Nixon, and her focus on gun control will hurt her. Even Trump should be able to beat her. And Clinton will likely get beaten up for the entire election. I think at some point the Republican field will narrow and the candidates that are left should be able to hit Clinton a lot harder then they are now. There are so many things to hit her with as well.

The only problem is that the field is not narrowing on the Republican side. I think there is a decent chance that the primary could last a lot longer then it should. With so many people still in the race, the low ranking people will attack the front runners in an attempt to stay relevant. I think that hurts whoever the candidate will be (and I think it will be Trump or Carson and not anyone like Bush or Rubio). In addition to the normal infighting, the fact that the front runners are outsiders means that the establishment would hit them hard as well. I think this could ultimately weaken the Republican's chances.

The more I think about the more strange I think this election will come out. Democrats will be completely united under a single candidate (unless Bernie Sanders throws a fit and runs third party) but that candidate will be weak and scandal ridden. People will vote for Clinton, but other then people wanting a woman for a president, nobody will be excited for it. On the Republican side, they will have a very strong candidate, but one that isn't part of the mainstream. That candidate will face opposition from not only the left, but also from his own party. Both sides will have difficulty getting the critical votes from the centrist people. In other words,I can see the election going either way... 

No comments:

Post a Comment